2026 Sugar Bowl Prediction: Georgia vs Ole Miss CFP Quarterfinal
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It’s the Sugar Bowl, features two SEC teams, and it’s a rematch of a game played earlier this season.
We did this in the first round with Alabama and Oklahoma, and the script flipped the other way. Georgia beat Ole Miss in the first meeting, now can the Rebels pull off what would be the – all things considered – biggest stunner of a loaded College Football Playoff Quarterfinal?
What Georgia and Ole Miss Must Do to Win the Sugar Bowl Quarterfinal
Think back to a happier, simpler time. It was October 18 of 2025. We we younger, care-free, and with our whole lives ahead of us.
Georgia was in trouble going into the fourth quarter against Ole Miss. The Dawg D clamped down, Gunner Stockton threw a few touchdown passes, and 17 unanswered points later, Georgia had a 43-35 win.
Neither team has lost a game since.
Georgia is on a nine-game winning streak, and and Ole Miss has won six straight, including a 41-10 thumping of Tulane in a Playoff First Round game that wasn’t even that close or interesting.
Lane Kiffin is now working up the road from where this will be played, new head coach Pete Golding has a CFP win – and Kiffin doesn’t – and the winner will face either Ohio State or Miami in, most likely, the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.
How To Watch Georgia vs Ole Miss
Date: Thursday, January 1, 2026
Game Time: 8:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
@PeteFiutak
College Football Playoff Predictions
Rose Bowl: Alabama vs Indiana
Cotton Bowl: Ohio State vs Miami
Orange Bowl: Oregon vs Texas Tech
Why Ole Miss Will Win
Everyone in this year’s College Football Playoff Quarterfinals has a realistic expectation of winning the national title, but for Ole Miss, the pressure is just a wee bit off, at least compared to the other seven programs still alive.
Georgia got knocked out in this round last year after winning the SEC Championship. Obviously there’s no real pressure on Kirby Smart, beyond being expected to win everything all the time, but lose, and all of a sudden, the Dawgs won’t be a part of any of the last three CFP final fours.
Meanwhile, the Tulane game was the mental hurdle for Ole Miss. That was the first game after Lanegate, it was the overwhelming favorite at home, and everyone had something to prove. Now, the Rebels can just turn it loose and play.
Football-wise, Ole Miss almost won the first meeting even though the offense stalled, coming up with a season-low 351 yards. No one else held it to under 400.
So what went wrong? Ole Miss was like a boxer who punched himself out. The offense was so fast and so good early that all Georgia had to do was be patient.
Gunner Stockton hit his short-range passes, the Dawgs controlled the tempo, and eventually, Ole Miss got gassed.
The Rebels never care about the time of possession battle, but it really, really mattered here. Georgia had the ball for more than 15 minutes longer. The Ole Miss defense couldn’t hold up, and that’s why everything tilted the other way over the final quarter.
Ole Miss learned from that.
Everyone likes to slam Kiffin, but that was a key moment, and going forward, things slowed down just enough that the defense always had time to catch its breath.
And what happened? The next week, Ole Miss had the ball for more than 11 minutes longer than Oklahoma, the D was fantastic late, and boom – glitch fixed.
Now Ole Miss is more of a controlled speed team. Oh there’s tempo, and no one can seem to stop the Rebel stars when they get rolling, but it’s not at the expense of the defense. However …
Why Georgia Will Win
Something else happened after that Georgia win over Ole Miss.
The Bulldog defense became otherworldly.
Yeah, the Ole Miss offensive output in that game was by far the lowest of the season, but those 351 yards of total O were way more than Georgia gave up to anyone the rest of the way. Only Mississippi State was able to push past 300.
The national star power might not be there like it was for past Georgia teams, but there hasn’t been a better defense in America over the key part of the season.
The Bulldogs haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown in the last four games, totally dominated Alabama in the SEC Championship, and then there’s the really scary part – the pass rush started to work.
For all the good things Georgia does, it wasn’t a regular in opposing backfields. With more experience as the season has gone on, the defense is being turned loose a bit more.
The Bulldogs came up with eight sacks over the first nine games, and two of those were against Austin Peay. They have 12 over the last five games.
No one slows down this Ole Miss offense to a dead stop, but if you’re the one making it hurry and react, and not vice versa, it can be slowed down. That, and …
Georgia vs Ole Miss Prediction, Betting Lines
The Ole Miss defense still has to show that it can hold up.
Ol’ Lane got all fired up when his defense didn’t stink against Oklahoma after doubling over against Georgia, but as it turned out, that Sooner offense was blah.
Yeah, there’s talent on the Rebel D, but who did it stop? South Carolina? Tulane – twice? LSU?
Georgia won’t go for 510 yards like it did in the first meeting, but it’ll continue to be methodical. It won’t panic when Ole Miss goes 77 yards in four plays, taking 49 seconds off the clock.
Who gave the Ole Miss defense trouble? Arkansas, and it connected on 75% of its third down tries. Mississippi State put up yards, and it converted 53% of the time. And then there was Georgia, converting almost 56% of its third down chances.
Remember, Ole Miss didn’t have to deal with the Texas A&M defense, or Texas, Missouri, Alabama, or Auburn. It missed five of the top eight SEC defenses, only put up 24 on LSU, and rallied late to get by OU.
This will be a blast for three quarters, and like last time, Georgia will hammer down from there.
Georgia 34, Ole Miss 23
Line: Georgia -7, o/u: 55.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3.5
Must See Rating: 5
– Bowl Schedule, Predictions
Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related: 2026 Orange Bowl Prediction: Oregon vs Texas Tech CFP Quarterfinal
This story was originally published by College Football News on Dec 22, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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