Big Ten Rankings and Projections After Week 2
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There were several surprising results around the Big Ten last weekend-and not just UW’s ‘much closer than expected’ win over Utah State. In some cases we see that what we saw in week one carried over to week 2; that includes Rutgers not looking good, Oregon not looking like a CFP contender, Washington continuing to struggle on offense, and teams like UCLA and USC looking good. On the other hand, Michigan rebounded while Iowa struggled while winning and Minnesota lost. So, with all of that, where do all of the Big Ten teams rank now?
Polls
The two major polls were released and there are 8 Big Ten teams ranked in the Coaches Poll and 7 in the AP Poll. Here are the ranked teams. (AP/Coaches)
- Indiana (4/4)
- Ohio State (6/6)
- USC (12/11)
- Penn State (14/15)
- Iowa (18/20)
- Michigan (19/19)
- Oregon (21/18)
- Washington (NR/24)
Washington did get enough votes in the AP to be #26. There is one other Big Ten team that is getting votes in the AP poll: UCLA is #35. Nebraska (#34) and UCLA (#40) are getting votes in the Coaches poll.
There should be no surprise that Oregon dropped considerably after their loss to Oklahoma State. That was the first loss by Oregon under Dan Lanning to an unranked team. UW dropping out of the top-25 of the AP should not be a surprise; through 2 games they are not looking like most people expected. And Michigan moved back into the top 25 in the AP after their win over Oklahoma-they essentially took UW’s spot in the AP ranking.
Composite Ranking
Many of the rankings in the Massey Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks) are still based a lot on the results from last season, but we are seeing some movement based on the games this year.
Here is the ‘Cool Chart’ showing the rankings and changes since the preseason rankings. It also includes the final rankings from last season.
We’ll start with the good. UCLA (+22), Michigan State (+16), Maryland (+13), and Nebraska (+11) are all up at least 10 spots since the preseason. Indiana is now the #1 team in this ranking. Ohio State is still in the top 5 (#4) despite their loss at Texas.
On the not-so-good side, the Big Ten has several teams down more than 10 places since the preseason: Illinois (-14), Minnesota (-16), Oregon (-17), and Wisconsin (-13). Then there’s Rutgers which is down a whopping 55 places since the preseason! UW is currently down 9 places. UW was one of 3 Big Ten teams that dropped despite winning their games; Iowa and Wisconsin are the other two. Northwestern dropped 6 places despite not playing last weekend.
SP+
Bill Connelly has updated his SP+ rankings of all college football teams, including FBS, FCS, DII, D3, and NAIA. Here is where the Big Ten teams rank among all teams.
- Ohio State: 2
- Indiana: 5
- Oregon: 9
- USC: 12
- Penn State: 16
- Michigan: 25
- Iowa: 26
- Nebraska: 27
- Washington: 33
- UCLA: 38
- Maryland: 39
- Northwestern: 42
- Illinois: 47
- Minnesota: 55
- Michigan State: 60
- Wisconsin: 66
- Purdue: 78
- Rutgers: 81
Most of the SP+ rankings are within a few places of the Composite Ranking. There are, however, a few notable exceptions. SP+ has Rutgers 35 places higher, Maryland 12 places higher, and Northwestern, Oregon, and Purdue each 10 places higher. Illinois (-7), Michigan (-8), and Washington (-6) are the teams that are lower in SP+ by more than 5 places compared to the Massey Composite ranking.
Also note that (FCS) Montana State is ranked #72, which is above both Purdue and Rutgers.
Eastern Washington (UW’s next opponent) is now ranked #188 in the SP+. Utah State is #103 and WSU is #101. Will UW continue to play down to their competition? Or will they finally look dominant against an opponent?
ESPN Win Projections
ESPN’s FPI has updated their win projections for all FBS teams after the week 2 games. Included in () is the change since last week. That change tells a lot about the projected trajectory of the team (and their opponents).
- Illinois: 5.4 (down 1.0)
- Indiana: 10.5 (up 0.1)
- Iowa: 7.8 (down 0.1)
- Maryland: 6.3 (up 0.7)
- Michigan: 8.2 (up 1.2)
- Michigan State: 6.0 (up 0.7)
- Minnesota: 4.3 (down 1.2)
- Nebraska: 8.3 (up 0.8)
- Northwestern: 5.5 (up 0.2)
- Ohio State: 10.1 (down 0.3)
- Oregon: 7.8 (down 2.0)
- Penn State: 9.9 (up 0.1)
- Purdue: 3.9 (unchanged)
- Rutgers: 2.1 (down 0.7)
- UCLA: 7.4 (up 0.9)
- USC: 8.6 (up 0.1)
- Washington: 6.3 (down 0.6)
- Wisconsin: 5.7 (down 0.3)
Michigan improved their win projection by more than 1 win. UCLA, Maryland, Michigan State, and Nebraska improved by almost a win. Meanwhile, 3 teams had their projected win totals decrease by 1 or more wins: Illinois, Minnesota, and Oregon.
UW Win Percentages
Here’s a look at UW’s win percentages for their remaining games according to ESPN’s FPI. Also included are what those win percentages were in the preseason and after the week 1 games.
| Visitor | Home | Preseason | After Wk 1 | After Wk 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Washington | Washington | 98.8% | 98.7% | 98.0% |
| Minnesota | Washington | 82.6% | 78.6% | 78.6% |
| Washington | USC | 22.6% | 20.6% | 14.6% |
| Iowa | Washington | 58.7% | 56.1% | 48.4% |
| Washington | Purdue | 70.5% | 71.2% | 57.8% |
| Washington | Nebraska | 43.2% | 34.8% | 18.1% |
| Penn State | Washington | 51.3% | 39.6% | 31.4% |
| Washington | Michigan State | 67.1% | 63.3% | 45.7% |
| Indiana | Washington | 23.8% | 20.6% | 12.7% |
| Washington | Oregon | 10.4% | 13.2% | 16.3% |
Since last week, UW’s win percentage dropped in all but 2 of their remaining games. Their win percentage remained the same against Minnesota and improved a bit against Oregon. Also note that UW is now the favorite in only 3 of their remaining games. The favorite flipped in two games since last week; Iowa and Michigan State are now favorites against UW.
Massey still has UW as the favorite in 6 of their remaining games-including now being the favorite against Minnesota. They are underdogs against USC, Penn State, Indiana, and Oregon. However, their win percentage has dropped against Iowa, Nebraska, and Michigan State. The Iowa and Nebraska games are just about a toss-up (UW with 53% and 52% respectively).
Week 3 Games
Here’s a look at win projections for the week 3 games in the Big Ten.
| Visitor | ESPN FPI | Massey | SP+ | Home | ESPN FPI | Massey | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland State | 1.0% | 0% | 0% | Oregon | 99.0% | 100% | 100% |
| Akron | 10.9% | 3% | 5% | Minnesota | 89.1% | 97% | 95% |
| Kent State | 1.0% | 0% | 0% | Ohio State | 99.0% | 100% | 100% |
| Buffalo | 1.7% | 0% | 2% | Penn State | 98.3% | 100% | 98% |
| Eastern Michigan | 5.7% | 1% | 10% | Wisconsin | 94.3% | 99% | 90% |
| Southern Illinois | 3.6% | 2% | 3% | Illinois | 96.4% | 98% | 97% |
| UTEP | 1.3% | 0% | 2% | Michigan | 98.7% | 100% | 98% |
| USC | 95.8% | 82% | 89% | Rutgers | 4.2% | 18% | 11% |
| Western Kentucky | 1.0% | 0% | 0% | Indiana | 99.0% | 100% | 100% |
| Northern Iowa | 2.5% | 0% | 0% | Iowa | 97.5% | 100% | 100% |
| Eastern Washington | 2.0% | 0% | 0% | Washington | 98.0% | 100% | 100% |
| North Dakota | 3.5% | 5% | 7% | Nebraska | 96.5% | 95% | 93% |
| Colorado | 50.2% | 38% | 34% | Northwestern | 49.8% | 62% | 66% |
| Virginia Tech | 58.3% | 41% | 46% | Maryland | 41.7% | 59% | 54% |
| Michigan State | 3.7% | 3% | 4% | Notre Dame | 96.3% | 97% | 96% |
| Purdue | 20.0% | 23% | 21% | UCLA | 80.0% | 77% | 79% |
Most of the games against out of conference opponents have the Big Ten team as a heavy favorite-90% or better win percentage, so we won’t know much more about most of the teams. There are three exceptions. The first is Colorado at Northwestern, then there’s Maryland against Virginia Tech There is a split on both of those games. Massey and SP+ have Maryland and Northwestern as the favorites while ESPN’s FPI has Virginia Tech and Colorado as the favorites. And Michigan State is a heavy underdog against Notre Dame.
The first two Big Ten conference games of the season are this weekend, and both involve a team from LA. USC is a heavy favorite at Rutgers and UCLA is the favorite at home against Purdue.
Final Notes
It is still very early in the season. We’ve already seen a lot of movement by some teams, and we will likely see more from some teams as we get more into Big Ten conference games.
Based on the matchups this week, only if there is a major upset should we expect any major changes in the rankings for the Big Ten teams. But given that we’ve already seen upsets, we shouldn’t be surprised if we see another this weekend in the Big Ten.
In the past few years USC has been a team that has looked at the beginning of the season like they could break through as a Big Ten title and CFP contender. The same is true this season. Will this finally be the year for Lincoln Riley’s squad? Or will they stumble once they start playing some of the tougher teams in the conference (for example Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, and Indiana)? USC has also struggled when playing a long distance from home. This week they are at Rutgers, which has yet to win a game this season. Will USC’s road struggles continue? Or will Rutgers continue to struggle?
Two of the favorites to make the CFP from the Big Ten have already each lost a game: Ohio State and Oregon. Those teams both play each other in November. If those teams lose any other game, the loser of that game in November could be out of the playoffs. Ohio State plays at Iowa, at Indiana, and at USC before then. Oregon plays at USC plus they host UCLA and Nebraska, both of which are looking better so far this season. And both Ohio State and Oregon play Michigan in November as well.
In the past few years, Maryland has been a team that has played well in September, but then has struggled after that. This weekend Maryland plays a tough P4 opponent, James Franklin’s new team: Virginia Tech. Will Maryland’s September fortunes continue or not?
UW still has 10 (regular season) games to play. The good news is that so far they are 2-0. The bad news is that if the offense continues like it has looked the last 2 games, getting to a bowl game could be difficult. Their defense could keep them in games, but that will likely not be enough against many of the teams that they will be playing this season. Hopefully they have another opportunity to work on the offense before they start Big Ten conference play. Will it be enough?
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