College Football Playoff Rankings: Committee keeps rewarding teams based on recency bias as Oklahoma and Texas controversy looms
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The second College Football Playoff rankings show of 2025 is now complete and the committee held pace with their slightly wrong decisions yet again this week. The committee always ends up contradicting themselves each week, so just like last week we’ll be breaking down what the ranks “should have been” every week this season, going through the argument for and against various top teams to make the College Football Playoff.
In case you missed it, here are the 12 teams (in order of playoff seeding) that would be in the College Football Playoff if it began tomorrow according to the committee this week:
1 – Ohio State Buckeyes (first round bye)
2 – Indiana Hoosiers (first round bye)
3 – Texas A&M Aggies (first round bye)
4 – Alabama Crimson Tide (first round bye)
5 – Georgia Bulldogs (first round home game)
6 – Texas Tech Red Raiders (first round home game)
7 – Ole Miss Rebels (first round home game)
8 – Oregon Ducks (first round home game)
9 – Notre Dame Fighting Irish (first round @ Oregon)
10 – Texas Longhorns (first round @ Ole Miss)
11 – Miami Hurricanes (first round @ Texas Tech)
12 – USF Bulls (first round @ Georgia)
Our team at A to Z Sports decided to do our own rankings again since the committee already has things out of order (at least according to our staff). We then broke down our top 12 and staff members who cover many of the teams involved laid out their arguments for or against their current playoff seeding. Enjoy!
Key stats that impacted College Football Playoff Rankings
- Texas A&M’s number one strength of record, superior strength of schedule, and top tier ranks in net success rate, EPA per play, havoc rate, plus third down defense apparently meant nothing to the committee once again
- The Oklahoma Sooners may have lost to the Texas Longhorns after rushing their quarterback back from hand surgery, but our team valued the Sooners’ top ranked defense that leads in EPA per play allowed, success rate against, and most every pressure-related statistic, mixed with their superior strength of schedule over Texas
- The Texas Longhorns somehow find themselves in the playoff bracket despite an embarrassing loss to 3-6 Florida and a failure to rank among the elites in almost any offensive or defensive category
- James Madison was our team’s pick (instead of USF) as the Group of 5 conference champion thanks to their elite record and top ten ranked defense
A to Z Top 25 College Football Playoff Rankings
- Ohio State (Playoff Seed: 1)
- Texas A&M (2)
- Indiana (3)
- Alabama (4)
- Georgia (5)
- Ole Miss (6)
- Texas Tech (7)
- Oregon (8)
- Notre Dame (9)
- Oklahoma (10)
- Texas
- Utah
- Vanderbilt
- Georgia Tech (11)
- USC
- Miami
- BYU
- Michigan
- Cincinnati
- Louisville
- Tennessee
- Pittsburgh
- Virginia
- Iowa
- James Madison (12)
The committee is already doing some funny things. They still refuse to recognize Texas A&M’s top ranked strength of record and superior strength of schedule (compared to Indiana) despite the Hoosiers struggles with a flailing Penn State team this past week. Their nod of Texas Tech over Ole Miss at the six and seven spots was fine considering their dominant victory over BYU. However, from there our team saw things quite a bit different.
The biggest difference was that our team preferred to keep Oklahoma in the bracket instead of Texas despite the head to head outcome (when John Mateer was 17 days post-hand-surgery). The Sooners have been the far superior team throughout the remainder of their schedule, against a tougher slate, and have put together the number one defense in the nation by most meaningful measures.
The committee also randomly decided to become infatuated with Miami this week, putting them ahead of Georgia Tech so they can set the stage for an at-large bid and two ACC qualifiers. Our team wasn’t as haphazard with our rankings order there, leaving the Yelllow Jackets in over the Hurricanes where they belong. The choice to go with USF over James Madison was a fair one for the Group of Five representative, but that will be an exciting battle to watch.
(1) Ohio State Buckeyes
“People are waiting on the Buckeyes to slip up — not necessarily lose, but at least be tested. Ohio State remains firmly cemented at No. 1 after a 34-10 win over Purdue, where the Boilermakers’ only touchdown came late in garbage time. The Buckeyes’ ability to replace their coordinators and keep both the offense and defense humming just like last season has been the most impressive part of this team. Ohio State’s best wins have come against the Texas Longhorns and Washington Huskies, and they likely won’t be truly pressed until they face the Michigan Wolverines at the end of the month. As dominant as the Buckeyes have been this season, it’s going to take a real off game for them to suffer their first loss.” – Brandon Little, A to Z Sports Ohio State
(2) Texas A&M Aggies
“I’ve argued that Texas A&M deserves to be ranked #2 overall in the past, and I stand by that when compared to to the Indiana Hoosiers. This is no slight to Indiana, but I simply think A&M is beating better teams in better ways, and that should matter. They didn’t need a late prayer to take down Penn State. They went on the road and flat out dominated talented LSU and Missouri squads. Consider this: Indiana’s final six Big Ten opponents (Michigan State, UCLA, Maryland, Penn State, Wisconsin, Purdue) sit at a combined 5-32 record in conference play, and UCLA has three of those five wins. Meanwhile, A&M has gone on the road against ranked LSU and Missouri squads, thoroughly dismantled them, and ends the season against the Texas Longhorns on the road as well. A&M is balanced and elite on both sides of the ball, they boast a boatload of NFL talent, and they have the best strength of record of any non-Ohio State team in the country. It’s an easy call for me to label them as the #2 team in the country.” – AJ Schulte, A to Z Sports Oklahoma
(3) Indiana Hoosiers
“My gut reaction after Indiana’s narrow win over Penn State was that the team would be dropped to three behind Texas A&M in the CFP rankings. So it doesn’t shock me that many of our staff have that result. It is interesting to me that Indiana’s one-score win over Penn State is treated as a crime against humanity, but Texas A&M’s one-score games against Auburn and Arkansas aren’t used as a knock against them.”
“Penn State’s record tells people top teams should blow them out, but in reality, there is a lot of talent on that Nittany Lions roster, and they clearly refuse to roll over and die, even if the national public tells them they should. I think winning a game that way was big for Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers. And I think it was good for quarterback Fernando Mendoza to show the country yet again that he is capable of bouncing back after mistakes. He did it at Iowa, and he did it at Penn State. This team feels battle-tested ahead of the Big 10 title and the College Football Playoff.” – Destin Adams, A to Z Sports Indianapolis
(4) Alabama Crimson Tide
“When removing all bias, it’s tough to place Alabama any higher than four after looking at the blemish-free resumes of the teams in front of them. Week 1 losses in college football don’t carry much weight when that’s your only loss of the season thus far, but a loss is still a loss. However, if Alabama beats Oklahoma this weekend, no team in the nation will be able to say they have a better win streak than the Crimson Tide. A win over OU would make for Alabama’s fifth win against a top 25 team and complete dominance in the SEC. While I can’t put Alabama into the top three just yet, a win on Saturday could have the Crimson Tide in an undeniable position.” – Rob Gregson, A to Z Sports Alabama
(5) Georgia Bulldogs
The Georgia Bulldogs finally looked like the Kirby Smart team that college football fans expect to see in their win over Mississippi State this past weekend. Their pass rush is heating up. The ground game is getting there with Nate Frazier exploding for 180+ yards this week. They stayed exactly where they were a week ago in the College Football Playoff rankings, but unlike last week, the Bulldogs are beginning to look like they actually deserve it. Georgia needs to finish strong with wins over Texas, Charlotte, and Georgia Tech to truly deserve and likely hold the five seed, but considering the absurd heroics they have pulled off to win games so far this year it seems likely they do it some more down the stretch. – Travis May, A to Z Sports College Football & NFL Draft Managing Editor
(6) Ole Miss Rebels
“Sometimes, analytics are unanimously in favor of one team over another, but Ole Miss doesn’t necessarily have that uniform support compared to peers. Texas Tech has destroyed everyone they’ve defeated, and Oregon’s scoring offense and defense have been stronger. However, Ole Miss has endured a much more difficult schedule and a key injury at quarterback. As impressive as the Red Raiders have been, Ole Miss has the best loss and boast a deeper, more powerful, and proven roster than their peers. It’s easier to look at the Rebels and have confidence they can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the country because they’ve done it and have won in tougher matchups.” – Ian Valentino, A to Z Sports LSU
(7) Texas Tech Red Raiders
“The Red Raiders are deserving of this sort of ranking (sixth by the committee, seventh for us) due to their consistency and dominant ranked wins so far this season. The sole blemish was a loss on the road to Arizona State when QB Sam Leavitt was still starting. As for the victories, decisive wins over a ranked BYU squad and a potential playoff team in the committee’s eyes in Utah are more than enough to put them in the top 6 conversation. Keep in mind that BYU was ranked in the top 7 (!!) prior to the loss to Tech. Whether that was correct or not is up for debate, but the legitimacy of the Red Raiders’ resume is absolutely not. I will not be surprised if they take the Big 12 crown and grab quite the advantage for a potential College Football Playoff run.” – Adam Holt, A to Z Sports New Orleans Saints and LSU
(8) Oregon Ducks
“The Oregon Ducks moved up one spot in the College Football Playoff rankings moving from nine to eight following the team’s road win at Iowa and BYU’s loss to Texas Tech. While the Ducks are in fine position at eight, they are still ranked too low. Oregon has two top 25 wins, at Penn State and at Iowa, and their one loss was to the number two team in the country, Indiana. Having Ole Miss above the Ducks makes very little sense, but there is still plenty of time for things to be sorted out. The Ducks have two tough games remaining at home against a ranked USC team and then on the road at Washington. If Oregon handles business the rest of the way, they will be in position to host a home playoff game.” – Brentley Weissman, A to Z Sports Oregon
(9) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
“The placement for Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff field has been heavily debated by fans from all over. While most hyper-focus on the two losses against Miami and Texas A&M, not enough consider that both were early in the season, and the Irish had the chance to win both games. Notre Dame also beat USC, a Top-20 ranked team, and has handled everyone else convincingly. With the defensive improvements this Irish team has shown, along with the natural growth of CJ Carr at quarterback, they are a dangerous team. That doesn’t even account for running back Jeremiyah Love who is one of the very best players in all of college football.” – Ryan Roberts, A to Z Sports Notre Dame
(10) Oklahoma Sooners
“Oklahoma being over Texas is how it should be, but it’s not how it ended up on Tuesday – at least not until one of these two teams loses and the other one doesn’t. Sure, the Texas Longhorns beat Oklahoma. Sure, that is something that will matter quite a bit for the committee. However, in those big-time rivalry games – especially a game where Oklahoma’s quarterback had just returned from hand surgery and maybe returned a bit too early – the exact outcome shouldn’t hold too much weight in the overall assessment of a team’s talent and ability to compete in the playoff. The Michigan Wolverines always give the Ohio State Buckeyes problems, and if they beat OSU this season, no one would have Michigan in over them. You know why? Because the eye test tells us which one is the better team every single other week, and it cannot be clearer that it is Oklahoma in this case.”
“It’s important to decipher the difference in how the schedules were viewed coming into the season as well (and how they’re viewed now), not necessarily being the team’s fault. Oklahoma had the hardest schedule in football prior to the start of the season (and still might). When they played the Auburn Tigers earlier this year that was actually a ranked win over a tough defensive team who was much better than the one being trotted out there now. That’s not the Sooners’ fault that win looks less impressive now. A rivalry loss at a neutral site that was closer than the final score made it seem and a close loss to Ole Miss hammers home the fact that this team truly has zero bad losses on their resume. They just don’t have the head-to-head win over Texas, unfortunately.” – Justin Churchill, A to Z Sports Oklahoma
(11) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
“At this point, it appears the ACC is being deemed by the committee as inferior, and losses by Virginia and Louisville last weekend did little to dispel that notion. At this point, Georgia Tech is the ACC’s only one-loss team, and if they beat BC on the road and Pitt at home, they’ll be in the ACC title game – likely the favorite to get in as the conference’s champion. However, Miami is being slept on more than they should (even at 15 this week). If they finish strong at 10-2 with wins over Notre Dame and USF, particularly if those two win out and make the playoff field, their resume will be as strong as anyone else’s and would merit the ACC getting two teams into the final bracket.” – Craig Smith, A to Z Sports Tennessee
(12) James Madison Dukes
“When you look at the Group of Five teams, there are a couple of really interesting options for the College Football Playoff. The one that I think is going to make the biggest impact is North Texas. Head coach Eric Morris is elevating the Mean Green to another level, especially on the ground. The offense is sixth in EPA/play overall, with both the running game (13th) and passing game (8th) thriving thanks to true freshmen at quarterback in Drew Mestemaker and running back Caleb Hawkins. The defense is below average, but that hasn’t mattered much, as the offense has scored 30+ points in each game, with four games over 50 points. When it comes to the G5 level, there isn’t a more explosive offense than North Texas, and they could give anyone fits. Our team’s consensus put James Madison in over North Texas, but this will be a tight battle. Especially since the committee put the USF Bulls in over both. The final playoff spot looks like it’s wide open still.” – Tyler Forness, A to Z Sports Florida
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This story was originally reported by A to Z Sports on Nov 12, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add A to Z Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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