College Football Predictions, Picks: Stuckey’s Week 4 Bets for Florida vs Ole Miss, Wisconsin vs Penn State, More

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As I do every week, I will share my favorite betting spots for Saturday’s college football card. And, oh boy, do we have one helluva slate for Week 4.

Ultimately, my primary goal here is to discuss a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each game, hopefully helping you make more informed wagers.

I write most of these up after betting them, and I log them in the Action App immediately, so make sure you’re following along there for plays early in the week that may move. For reference, I’ll note what I’d still play each wager to and purposefully waited on most this week until they were more widely available.

Last week went very well at 7-2 overall following a slow start (thank you, Rice, for the lucky backdoor), but that’s now in the past.

Looking ahead to this weekend, I have highlighted my nine favorite Week 4 spots.

Old Dominion originally made the cut, but the Monarchs have quarterback uncertainty that I’m currently monitoring. West Virginia and LSU also just missed the cut in case you’re curious.

• 2022-25: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
• 2026: 15-7-1 (68.2%)
• Overall: 238-185-4 (56.3%)

Let’s dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Week 4.

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College Football Predictions, Picks

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	12 p.m.	Wake Forest +13
	3:30 p.m.	Florida -2.5
	3:30 p.m.	Iowa State +8.5
	4 p.m.	Georgia Southern +18.5
	4:15 p.m.	Auburn -9
	5 p.m.	Wisconsin +10.5
	5 p.m.	Bowling Green +17.5
	7:30 p.m.	Utah State -2.5
	9 p.m.	Missouri State +35

I have had this spot circled for quite a while, but obviously things are a little murkier with Gio Lopez getting a questionable tag on the first availability report. He has since been upgraded to probable, which is a positive for this bet.

If he can’t go, this bet is likely toast since the drop-off to backup freshman Steele Pizzella is significant.

Unfortunately, I’m already locked in at +13 even though 13.5s are currently available. Let’s just hope Lopez isn’t too compromised since his legs are a vital part of the offense.

Lopez has been outstanding running the show so far, which shouldn’t be too surprising since he thrived under offensive coordinator Rob Ezell at South Alabama a couple of seasons ago. He knows the scheme, and it appears to be a perfect marriage, which makes his availability even more crucial.

If not for a couple of killer penalties on special teams and fourth-down misses, the Demon Deacons could have had a shot at upsetting Miami last week in what turned out to be a very easy cover.

Wake does benefit from an extra day of rest and prep since it last played on Friday night, while Louisville has to be a bit gassed after huge bouts vs. Ole Miss and SMU over a 13-day span with an FCS Friday night matchup squeezed in between.

I won’t be shocked if the Cardinals come out a little bit flat for an early kick following a victory in their toughest remaining game on the schedule (and most important for the ACC race).

Plus, they do enter this game a bit beat up across the board following such a grueling schedule. They will particularly miss Antonio Watts on the defensive end.

Assuming Lopez is healthy, Wake’s underrated offense can move the ball in a multitude of ways here. Keep an eye on the human first down, Carlos Hernandez.

On the other side of the ball, the Demon Deacons will play an abundance of zone to limit explosives (as they did vs. Miami) that Louisville has hit at a high rate on this season.

They will make the Cardinals drive the field and execute without making costly errors, becoming an issue for one of the five-most penalized teams in the country.

Louisville also still has major issues on special teams, so don’t be surprised if we see a key blunder or two in the often-forgotten third phase, which arguably cost it a win against Ole Miss in the opener.

While the Louisville running game should churn, it will at least keep the clock moving and condense the game.

L’s down!

Pick: Wake Forest +13 or Better

This is the obvious spot of the year in college football with Ole Miss coming off an enormous victory over Lane Kiffin and LSU in a game that took a full-40 minute effort to hang on by a thread.

Now, following one of the most hyped games of the entire season, the Rebels have to find a way to get back up for a road game in one of the most hostile environments in all of college football against a Florida team that I now have power-rated in the top 10, believe it or not.

Keep in mind, Ole Miss also had a full-40 minute effort against Louisville on a Sunday a few weeks back. In all honesty, this team is a few bounces away from coming into this game with a 1-2 record instead of 3-0.

I still have the Rebels power-rated above the Gators, but it’s not by as much as some might think. We still need to learn a little bit more about Florida, but to me, these are two of the 10 best teams in the nation.

And in this particular spot, I have the home-field advantage worth right around four points in the Swamp for a ranked SEC matchup.

Throw in the situational angle, and I’m right around Florida -3.5, so I was still OK taking the Gators at under a field goal in a spot even your Aunt Judy knows about.

Ole Miss could also be without star running back Kewan Lacy, which would really cap the rushing explosiveness.

Meanwhile, Florida will have one a fully healthy Jadan Baugh, who has looked like the best back in the country so far this season. Throw in one of the better receiving corps in the country, and this group of skill-position players is absolutely loaded.

Quarterback in Aaron Philo also looks very comfortable running an offense he knows very well from his time at Georgia Tech with Buster Faulkner, arguably the top offensive coordinator in the sport.

I love Trinidad Chambliss and don’t enjoy betting against him (although I did so vs. Charlotte and Louisville, while backing him vs. LSU), and he certainly won’t make this bet easy.

The Rebels will score their fair share of points, but this Florida defensive line is the real deal and can create enough Havoc and negative plays to get off the field.

And if Ole Miss comes out flat, Florida can play with a lead, leaning on Baugh against a vulnerable Rebel run defense to set up easy play-action shots to exploit a secondary that has had quite a few coverage busts so far this season.

Lastly, Florida head coach Jon Sumrall has to have a bit of an edge due to prepping for this Ole Miss team twice last season. And this time around, he won’t have the Tulane roster to work with.

Instead, he has a ferocious Florida defensive line that will have some matchup advantages, especially off the edge, against this Ole Miss offensive line.

Don’t be fooled by the final score last week at Auburn. Midway through the fourth quarter, the Gators led by 17 and held a 475-220 yardage edge before the Tigers punched in a couple late scoring drives, including a long pass on fourth down in the final seconds.

Chomp Chomp.

Pick: Florida -2.5 (-125 or Better)

It’s time to put some respect on Jimmy Rogers’ name, as it seems he’s way ahead of expectations in rebuilding an Iowa State program that Matt Campbell gutted in the offseason.

Rogers did the same thing last year in Pullman, guiding Washington State to a seven-win season despite a brutal schedule.

Just take a look at his last 10 games vs. FBS competition. Over that span, Rogers has gone 9-1 ATS, covering by an absolutely absurd 15 points per game. That includes the following results as a large underdog:

• Lost by 4 as a 15-point underdog at James Madison
• Lost by 2 as a 16-point underdog at Virginia
• Lost by 3 as a 33-point underdog at Ole Miss
• Lost by 3 as a 14-point underdog at Iowa

The first three came last year with Washington State against two College Football Playoff teams and a third that nearly made it.

His teams have also held leads in the fourth quarter in all three, with chances to win each as a massive ‘dog. That’s damn impressive.

I also brought up last season because Rogers brought many players with him from Pullman to Ames, primarily on the defensive side of the ball, where seven of the top 15 in snap count are ex-Cougars.

As a result, there was already a solid foundation and familiarity with defensive coordinator Jesse Bobbit’s (who came with Rogers from Wazzu) scheme. They also seemingly hit on a number of other transfers they brought in from lower levels.

This defense is balling out at the moment and should get back two of its better defensive backs who sat out last week.

If not for a false start penalty, the Cyclones easily could have won at Iowa two weeks ago in a game where they held the Hawkeyes to 93 yards rushing on 29 attempts.

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect. Pictured: Iowa State QB Jaylen Raynor.

That’s a damn good sign ahead of this matchup against the potent Utah rushing attack, especially considering Iowa has one of the better offensive lines in the country. I can’t say the same for Utah.

Everyone has seemingly forgotten that Utah lost all five starters along the offensive line, including two tackles selected in the first round of the NFL Draft (along with two others who signed with NFL teams).

The Utes also lost head coach Kyle Whittingham, offensive coordinator Jason Beck and a number of its best players to Michigan, including a few from a defense that had major issues last year.

Why does everyone have amnesia all of a sudden? Because Utah beat (checks notes) Idaho, Arkansas and Utah State (where its new OC came from) at home? Yawn.

Now, the Utes head out on the road for the first time (with a first-time head coach) against real competition.

The pure numbers guys will love Utah here because of priors, but I’ve upgraded Iowa State more than any team in the country and came into the season much lower than the market on Utah.

Plus, we have at least seen Iowa State play one super competent opponent in a hostile environment in a game where it exceeded expectations.

The Clones should have success running the ball with the underrated Aiden Flora and company against a Utah defense that allowed 5.0 yards per carry last season, which ranked 114th nationally. And it lost its three best run defenders from that team.

And don’t sleep on the fact that Iowa State has one of the better kickers in the country and an overall edge on special teams, which could help decide this cover.

I know this line has dropped from the soft open, but I actually project 7 accounting for everything. I’ll likely be on an island here, but I believe the Clones keep this close, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they pull off the upset in front of a juiced home contingent.

Let’s just hope the inevitable interception from Jaylen Raynor isn’t too costly.

Pick: Iowa State +8.5 (Play to +8)

Georgia Southern didn’t cover last week (somehow), but the Eagles have exceeded market expectations in each of their matchups against FBS opponents.

They covered easily in a competitive game vs. Clemson and then outgained Jacksonville State, 369-302, on the road last week. They led by 14 at the half after jumping out to a 17-0 lead, but eventually lost by four on a Jax State punt return touchdown followed by a Max Johnson interception in the red zone in the final two minutes.

Bottom line, Georgia Southern has played a bit better than I had expected with an entirely new offense.

Head coach Clay Helton did at least have a very experienced defense (top-25 in returning production) to lean on coming into the season, and they;ve been particularly stout against the run, which is important against a Willie Fritz offense.

That strength can also keep the game from getting too out of hand.

So, why do I like this spot? Well, it’s twofold.

For starters, this is a bit of a flat spot for Houston. The Cougars will travel to a G6 school following a heartbreaking loss to Texas Tech with conference play ramping back up next week.

Conversely, this is a super hype spot for Georgia Southern, which will host a Power 4 team for the first time in program history. This is a big deal in Statesboro, and it should draw a very good crowd.

Lastly, I’m not sure Fritz wants to bury the school he used to coach at, which could leave the backdoor wide open if needed.

I believe Georgia Southern’s short-passing attack can do enough to keep the sticks moving, with backup quarterback Weston Bryan providing a nice boost on short-yardage and goal-line situations. That helps solve a major issue for this Eagles offense in the past.

GATA!

Pick: Georgia Southern +18.5 or Better

Despite a 3-0 record, Vanderbilt has been super underwhelming to start the season and has taken a major step back as expected.

The Commodores beat Delaware by single digits in a game they finished with one more yard than the Blue Hens. Then, last week, against a down NC State club, they trailed by 17 in the second half before mounting a comeback to win on the final play of the game in one of the most miraculous wins I’ve ever seen.

And even if we forget about the fumble in the end zone on the failed safety attempt, the Wolfpack would have won that game by double digits if they hadn’t whiffed on a fourth-down sack earlier in the fourth quarter.

Now, Vanderbilt (which could be a bit flat after such a thrilling victory) will head out on the road against much stiffer competition with a true freshman quarterback making his first career road start in a very hostile environment.

Auburn hasn’t lit the world on fire so far this season, but the Tigers have played a significantly more difficult schedule than Vandy.

Coming into the season, my primary concerns for this roster were the offensive line and edge rush following the turnover they experienced in the offseason. Well, there are still more questions than answers with both.

With that said, this offensive line will have a much easier matchup this week, and I did like that head coach Alex Golesh started to roll quarterback Byrum Brown out more as the game progressed against Florida.

I’d expect more of that this week against a Clark Lea defense that does like to bring pressure.

I’m expecting plenty of explosive plays on the outside where the Auburn wideouts will have matchup advantages against a Vandy secondary that just got torched by CJ Bailey.

I’d also expect a spirited effort from a veteran Auburn defense that got embarrassed last week and last season at Vanderbilt.

Jared Curtis will likely make some youthful mistakes, and the Auburn back end can capitalize. That should allow the Tigers to get out to a lead, where Golesh’s teams always thrive as a frontrunner.

And I wouldn’t expect him to take his foot off the gas, needing a big win in his first season in front of a fan base that hasn’t seen a home SEC win since November 2024.

This is also an opponent that has owned Auburn in recent seasons, which Golesh has heard all about recently. This game has extra meaning for a multitude of reasons to this staff, especially when you look at Auburn’s next four games:

• at Tennessee
• at Georgia
• vs. LSU
• at Ole Miss

Sheesh.

I project this spread above 10 and think we would’ve seen a 10-plus had Vanderbilt lost by double digits at home to NC State (which it was one missed tackle away from doing).

Instead, it picked up a Powerball-type win, and we may have gotten a better number and a better spot to fade the ‘Dores.

War Eagle.

Pick: Auburn -9 (Play to -9.5)

I think this is a perfect spot to fade Penn State as a double-digit favorite. The Nittany Lions have played three scrimmages to start the season against Buffalo, Temple and Marshall.

The opener against Marshall looked very impressive at the time, but the Herd have been atrocious in the two games since and should’ve lost to both Missouri State and Middle Tennessee. So, the shine on that performance has certainly faded.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin looked much improved against one of the national title favorites in Notre Dame on a neutral field. That was much closer than the final score indicated and really got away from the Badgers due to a pick-six and a ref-gifted touchdown on a kick return fumble.

The Badgers defense is much more athletic on the back end, and they have some real size up front to slow down the Penn State rushing attack without committing too many bodies to the box.

Additionally, these two teams are trending in opposite directions health-wise. Penn State has a CVS receipt length of injuries heading into this week, with many coming on the defensive side of the ball.

However, the most important loss will be on offense with star wide receiver Koby Howard (who leads Penn State in receiving by a wide margin) expected to miss an extended period of time. That’s a massive loss for the nation’s leader in yards per catch among qualified receivers.

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect. Pictured: Wisconsin QB Colton Joseph.

He’s a walking explosive and opens up the rest of the offense for the Nittany Lions. Without him, this offense becomes much easier to contain, especially since quarterback Rocco Becht has always been an elite deep-ball thrower.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin should finally have a fully healthy offensive line, and a couple of its skill-position contributors are trending up health-wise.

I’ve also been impressed with Colton Joseph whenever he steps up in class, having faced arguably the nation’s best defense last year in Indiana (on the road) and this year vs. Notre Dame on a neutral field.

He won’t be intimidated by the stage or opponent.

He can also use his legs to extend drives in what should be a lower-scoring affair, which definitely makes the double-digit dog a bit more appealing.

Give me the fighting Fickells to keep this close.

On, Wisconsin!

Pick: Wisconsin +10.5 (Play to +10)

First, I would like to apologize for the Bowling Green bet last week. Secondly, I’d like to apologize in advance for the Bowling Green bet this week.

The Falcons are atrocious in every aspect and also lost their best cornerback to a season-ending injury ahead of the Iowa State game. With that said, I plugged my nose and took the points once again in a game I project under 17 in a spot I fancy.

BG did get blown out on the road against Nebraska and Iowa State, so this will at least present a step down in class for a team that should come out with a desperate effort following an 0-3 start.

As long as Eddie George’s group can avoid getting too far behind, they profile as a very appealing underdog with their offensive style.

Additionally, this is a fade of a South Florida team that I believe the market is too high on.

The Bulls should have lost their opener vs. FIU in a game they got outgained, 381-208, but benefited from a +3 turnover margin and four FIU failed fourth-down attempts.

They also needed a miraculous comeback to win on a last-second fourth-down go route against Army in a game they trailed, 24-14, with just a few minutes remaining. USF could easily be sitting at 1-2 on the season.

The Bulls are also playing much slower this year (which helps limit the number of possessions for the large home pup), and I’m not sure how focused they’ll be under a first-time head coach for a road game at winless BG before conference play kicks into full gear. I could see the Bulls coming out very flat.

Give me the Falcons (reluctantly) in the ultimate buy-low spot, while selling a fortunate Bulls bunch.

Ay Ziggy Zoomba!

Pick: Bowling Green +17.5 or Better

You know I had to get a game on CBS Sports Network in here.

This was one of the first bets I placed this week, and the handicap isn’t rocket science.

For starters, I make it Utah State -3.5. It’s also a great spot for the Aggies, who have played one of the 10 most difficult schedules in the country to date compared to Troy, which has a strength of schedule barely inside the top 100, per Sagarin.

Also, don’t get too down on the Aggies for that loss against Idaho State to open the season, as the boys from Pocatello are in the elite tier amongst FCS programs this season.

Plus, Utah State finished with a 407-241 yards advantage but couldn’t overcome a -4 turnover margin.

Head coach Bronco Mendenhall was also tinkering with the depth chart, which has since settled a bit. The Aggies then almost upset Washington as near four-touchdown underdogs and then lost at Utah. There’s no shame in either result.

From a matchup perspective, the Utah State run defense (top-20 in Success Rate) has looked very stout, holding Washington and Idaho State to a combined 196 yards on 63 carries (3.1 average).

That should help shut off a Troy offense that has extreme limitations through the air and ranks bottom-15 in Passing Success Rate.

While Utah State should come out hungry for its first win of the season, this is also a tricky spot for Troy after an all-out (impressive) effort at Missouri.

The Trojans now head out west for a second straight road game at altitude to take on winless Utah State prior to the start of league play. This screams flat effort from the men of Troy.

Hail the Utah State Aggies!

Pick: Utah State -2.5 (Play to -3)

This Missouri State offense has more juice than I had expected, especially this early in the season.

The Bears put up over 500 total yards last week against Marshall in a game they arguably should have won (had first-and-goal in the final minutes, going for the win).

New quarterback Skyler Locklear actually looks fairly comfortable operating a brand-new scheme after coming in from UTEP. As a result, I’ve upgraded them since the start of the year.

With that said, this is more of a fade of SMU in a spot I’ve talked about a number of times in this piece in the past: a 30-plus point favorite coming off a loss in a ranked matchup.

The common sentiment is that team will bounce back and come out angry, wanting to take out their frustrations on an inferior opponent. However, more often than not, those teams tend to come out super flat (see the trend below).

But maybe even more importantly, I don’t think Rhett Lashlee will want to embarrass Missouri State head coach Casey Woods, who had been his offensive coordinator at SMU from 2022-25. Those two are great friends (whose relationship dates back to the Auburn national title staff in 2010) and have referred to each other as “like brothers.”

As a result, Lashlee will likely take his foot off the gas earlier than usual with a big lead, and I highly doubt he’d punch in any late unnecessary scores.

Plus, Woods knows quarterback Kevin Jennings and this offensive scheme/personnel as well as anybody, so I’m assuming they’ll at least have a good scout even if they’ll be extremely outmatched athletically.

No State like Mo State!

Pick: Missouri State +35 or Better

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