Week 4 in Big 12: Massive one in Morgantown, undefeated ‘Cats clash

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We’ve reached Week 4, and so far, we’ve only had two conference matchups in the Big 12. Both delivered. The Arizona-BYU and Houston-Texas Tech matchups were both a tale of two halves, where the road underdog entered the break with a lead before the home favorite turned on the burners to finish.

Now, we have a loaded Saturday slate featuring five conference matchups, along with three non-conference clashes. Here is the full slate.

Saturday, Sept. 19:

• Sam Houston at Texas Tech, 12 p.m. ET (TNT)
• Colorado at Baylor, 12 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
• Utah at Iowa State, 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
• TCU at UCF, 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1)
• Houston at Georgia Southern, 4 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
• Kansas State at Cincinnati, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
• Oklahoma State at West Virginia, 7 p.m. ET (FS1)
• Arizona at Washington State, 7:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

Now, let’s dive into those five conference matchups in Week 4, headlined by two intriguing primetime matchups, where the host is undefeated.

Colorado at Baylor

Saturday, Sept. 26 at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2

Spread: Baylor (-9.5)

Over/under: 55.5

Neither fanbase will forget the last meeting between the teams. Trailing 31-24, Colorado dropped a game-tying Hail Mary touchdown on the penultimate play of regulation. However, the Buffaloes made up for it one play later when Shedeur Sanders connected with a diving LaJohntay Wester in regulation to force overtime. Colorado captured the early lead in overtime, while Baylor fumbled inches shy of the goal line on the ensuing series, securing a Buffaloes victory and field storm in Boulder.

Both programs produced winning records in that 2024 season but fell to sub-.500 in 2025. This presents a golden opportunity for both to improve to 3-1 overall and 1-0 in league play. Baylor is expected to return starting quarterback DJ Lagway, who has sat out with an ankle injury since dropping 333 passing yards in Week 1 against Auburn. Meanwhile, Colorado will aim to jump-start its passing offense under Julian Lewis, after only notching seven points in a blowout at Northwestern last week.

Although Lagway is probable, the availability report features several key players on both sides. Colorado will be without 2025 FBS receiving yards leader Danny Scudero, and the Buffaloes will remain reliant on receivers Joseph Williams and DeAndre Moore Jr. to bolster their aerial attack. Baylor defensive tackle Hosea Wheeler is questionable. One of the top transfer additions under new defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman, the Bears hope to sustain their vastly improved run defense, which skyrocketed from 122nd in 2025 (allowing 4.9 yards per carry) to 39th in 2026 (allowing 3.1 yards per carry).

Taking better care of the football will be the No. 1 priority for both teams. Baylor is tied for the sixth-most turnovers in the FBS with seven, while Colorado is tied for the 16th-most with six. Colorado defensive end Lamont Lester Jr. could be a key contributor to this turnover battle with the pressure he generates, entering this matchup with a Big 12-best four sacks.

Prediction: Baylor 26, Colorado 20

Utah at Iowa State

Saturday, Sept. 26 at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX

Spread: Utah (-7.5)

Over/under: 47.5

Iowa State leads the all-time series, 5-1, including a 2024 victory in Salt Lake City, but Utah enters as more than a touchdown favorite on the road in Ames.

The Utes have been arguably the Big 12’s most dominant team to date, hammering their first three opponents by an aggregate score of 142-24. But all of those annihilations transpired in Salt Lake City, and this will be Utah’s first road trip of the Morgan Scalley era. The Scalley era is off to a stellar start on both sides. Offensively, Utah is creating weekly highlights using its unique two-quarterback package, inflicting damage with Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin — who both are quintessential dual-threat quarterbacks. Also leading a dynamic run game is near-1,000-yard rusher Wayshawn Parker, who leads the backfield with 154 yards and three touchdowns.

Iowa State’s offense was a bit more dormant until last Saturday. The Cyclones had a confidence-building 55-7 win over 0-3 Bowling Green where running back Aiden Flora — one of the few holdovers from the Matt Campbell era — generating 296 all-purpose yards (194 rushing, 10 receiving, 92 as a punt returner) to go along with three touchdowns. Flora has been the star of the offense so far, but Iowa State still seeks more through the air from veteran Arkansas State transfer quarterback Jaylen Raynor, as the passing offense currently ranks 124th nationally.

Both teams have been incredibly physical at the line of scrimmage and capable in coverage. Iowa State defensive end Isaac Terrell has been an effective pass rusher on a reloaded Iowa State defense, producing three sacks and a forced fumble in three games. Utah has been better in coverage, however. The Utes are fourth in the country in pass breakups, and Jackson Bennee is thriving as one of the top safeties in the Big 12.

This is the only Big 12 opener to pit two new head coaches against one another, as Jimmy Rogers and Morgan Scalley both aim to start their tenures 1-0 in conference play.

Prediction: Utah 33, Iowa State 17

TCU at UCF

Saturday, Sept. 26 at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1

Spread: TCU (-3)

Over/under: 48.5

Both TCU and UCF defeated their Week 3 opponents by at least 14 points, but you would never know it by talking to the fanbases. The Horned Frogs overcame a slow offensive start against Arkansas State, turning a 14-7 halftime lead to a 31-7 victory. Meanwhile, the Knights trailed Georgia State 24-20 at halftime before turning up the jets for a 44-30 finish.

UCF has homefield advantage at the Bounce House, but the Knights remain without starting quarterback Alonza Barnett III. FIU transfer Keyone Jenkins stepped in for Barnett, finishing 7-of-17 for 86 passing yards with a touchdown and interception, while adding 25 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. UCF will likely rely on its running back room, headlined by the explosive Duke Watson. The Lousiville transfer’s 11.0 yards per carry reign supreme in the FBS among all ball carriers with at least 20 attempts, and he’s broken two 60+ yard touchdowns already.

The Knights appeared to be a defensively-driven team after its 12-7 loss at Pitt in Week 2. However, the Knights allowed 485 yards to Georgia State last week and needed three takeaways to stave off the upset bid. Meanwhile, TCU is built on the foundation of its defense. The Horned Frogs have only allowed one touchdown in all three games, and they’ve only given up three second half points total. TCU is especially lethal up front, attacking with one of the nation’s best defensive tackle tandems in Ansel Din-Mbuh and Markis Deal. With frequent first-level stops, TCU only gives up 79 rushing yards per game on a 2.7 average.

UCF’s ability to establish the run against TCU’s domineering front is the primary matchup to watch. However, TCU must generate some offense of its own. The Horned Frogs haven’t put together two complete offensive halves all season, and they’ll rely heavily on Jeremy Payne to get things going. The running back is up to 307 rushing yards through three games, and he’s at his best when bouncing it to the boundary.

Prediction: TCU 23, UCF 20

Kansas State at Cincinnati

Saturday, Sept. 26 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2

Spread: Kansas State (-6.5)

Over/under: 55.5

The Wildcats and Bearcats both carry 3-0 records into this Big 12 opener at Nippert Stadium.

Cincinnati has been the more challenged of the two, needing to storm back from a 21-point second half deficit against rival Miami (OH) last Saturday. The Bearcats didn’t panic and completed the challenge, winning 35-31 on Cole Tabb’s 53-yard run with 1:29 remaining. Now Cincinnati remains within the city limits for the fourth-straight week, looking to start 1-0 in Big 12 play for the third-straight season.

The Bearcats are renowned for their elite offensive line, headlined by All-American guard Evan Tengesdahl. The line has already given up four sacks — compared to last year’s eight — but remains as dangerous as anyone from a run blocking perspective. Cincinnati is eighth nationally in rushing yards per game and 15th in yards per attempt, deploying a deep backfield featuring Tabb, Gi’Bran Payne, and quarterback JC French IV, who has 631 passing yards and five touchdowns without an interception.

However, Kansas State is statistically the best pass protecting unit in the country. The Wildcats’ offensive line took a serious hit when All-Big 12 tackle John Pastore suffered a season-ending injury in fall camp, but the unit has retooled well. Kansas State is the only FBS team yet to allow sack, and the defense has produced a Big 12-best 11 sacks, led by Wendell Gregory’s 2.5 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss. The Wildcats also field the nation’s best passing defense, only surrendering 86.7 yards per game on a 44.6 completion rate. Kansas State, which is outscoring opponents 136-30, didn’t even surrender an offensive touchdown until last week against Tulane.

Both teams are built through their ground offenses and they aren’t afraid to design frequent runs for their quarterbacks. French already has four rushing touchdowns in three games as a Bearcat, while Avery Johnson generated 152 rushing yards and two scores on 12 attempts for the Wildcats last week.

Prediction: Kansas State 31, Cincinnati 21

Oklahoma State at West Virginia

Saturday, Sept. 26 at 7 p.m. ET on FS1

Spread: West Virginia (-1.5)

Over/under: 61.5

Every season, there’s at least one Big 12 team that takes everybody by surprise and wins at least nine games. In 2025, it was 10-3 Houston. In 2024, it was 11-3 Arizona State. In 2023, it was 9-4 West Virginia. That team could very well be involved in this highly-anticipated matchup in Morgantown.

Oklahoma State and West Virginia both produced losing seasons in 2024 and 2025 but feature two of the most transformed rosters in the Big 12. That has been evident in their respective 2-1 and 3-0 starts, highlighted by ranked wins — Oklahoma State over Oregon and West Virginia over Virginia. This matchup features the nation’s reigning passing and rushing leaders in Drew Mestemaker and Cam Cook, as well as the reigning rushing touchdowns leader in Caleb Hawkins, who all remain lethal at their new Big 12 homes.

Mestemaker has 882 passing yards and eight touchdowns through three games, while showing some unforeseen mobility against Oregon, while Cook is coming off his second-straight 120-yard performance in two games against FBS competition. Oklahoma State leads a more balanced offense, while West Virginia prefers to dominate on the ground through Cook and mobile quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr.

While Oklahoma State’s offense has been the more explosive unit, keep an eye on the trenches in this one. The Cowboys struggled fending off Tulsa at the line of scrimmage but showed vast improvement against Oregon. West Virginia has produced 10 sacks and only given up two — tied for 10th nationally in both categories.

If Oklahoma State can win on the road, it will snap the program’s 18-game regular season Big 12 losing streak. Last time it defeated a conference opponent was one week before the 2023 Big 12 Championship Game, back when Oklahoma and Texas were in the league.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 35, West Virginia 28

Check out more Big 12 coverage from our sister SB Nation Big 12 sites:

AZ Desert Swarm (Arizona), Vanquish the Foe (BYU), Wide Right & Natty Lite (Iowa State), Rock Chalk Talk (Kansas), Bring on the Cats (Kansas State), Frogs O’ War (TCU), The Smoking Musket (West Virginia)

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