College Football Upset Alert: 5 Ranked Teams That Should Be Careful in Week 3

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Oklahoma, USC and several other Top 25 teams enter Saturday as sizable favorites, but Week 3 offers some potentially dangerous matchups

College football provided another reminder last weekend that the number next to a team’s name doesn’t guarantee much once Saturday arrives.

Week 3 doesn’t have an abundance of ranked teams facing opponents expected to beat them. Quite the opposite: several of the nation’s highest-ranked programs are enormous favorites.

But that’s usually when college football gets interesting.

Road games, rivalry history, difficult matchups and overlooked opponents can turn what appears to be a comfortable Saturday into something considerably more stressful.

Here are five ranked teams that should be careful in Week 3.

No. 24 Oklahoma vs. New Mexico

When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2

If you’re searching for a ranked team that could find itself in an unexpectedly competitive game Saturday, start in Norman.

Oklahoma is a substantial favorite over New Mexico, with the line sitting above 20 points at most sportsbooks Friday. But there are reasons to think the Lobos can make the Sooners work considerably harder than that number suggests.

New Mexico enters 2-0, while Oklahoma is coming off a loss to Michigan.

More interesting is the matchup when New Mexico doesn’t have the football.

The Lobos have been among the nation’s more effective teams defending the pass through the first two weeks, ranking fifth nationally in EPA per pass, according to Covers. Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer, meanwhile, had a 56.7% adjusted completion rate in his most recent game.

New Mexico doesn’t need to dominate Oklahoma to make this uncomfortable. It needs to prevent explosive plays, force Mateer to sustain drives and hang around long enough for the pressure inside Memorial Stadium to shift toward the home sideline.

The betting market sees Oklahoma as roughly a three-touchdown favorite.

The matchup suggests this might not be quite that simple.

No. 12 USC at Rutgers

When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS

Everything about the rankings says USC.

A few other things say pay attention.

The 12th-ranked Trojans have to travel more than 2,700 miles for a Big Ten road game at Rutgers, one of the odd geographic realities created by conference realignment.

USC is favored by more than three touchdowns, so an outright Rutgers victory would qualify as one of the biggest surprises of the weekend. But the Scarlet Knights have two offensive players capable of making the afternoon interesting.

Wide receiver KJ Duff and running back Antwan Raymond have combined for more than 500 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns through the first two games.

They’ll face a USC defense that entered the weekend outside the nation’s top 75 in both EPA per pass and EPA per rush.

USC has considerably more talent.

Rutgers has home field, two dangerous playmakers and the benefit of making the Trojans travel across the country.

That’s enough to earn a place on the watch list.

No. 10 Alabama vs. Florida State

When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

Alabama shouldn’t require a reminder about Florida State.

The Seminoles provided one last year.

Florida State stunned then-No. 8 Alabama 31-17 in Tallahassee in the 2025 season opener, rushing for 230 yards and four touchdowns.

The circumstances are very different this time.

Alabama is 2-0, ranked No. 10 and playing at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Florida State is 1-1 and enters as approximately a 20-point underdog.

The Crimson Tide also have looked formidable defensively. Alabama ranks among the nation’s top 10 in EPA per rush and available-yards percentage and has one of the country’s highest-rated defenses by SP+.

So why put Alabama on upset alert?

Because Florida State has already demonstrated that Mike Norvell’s team can find a formula to beat Kalen DeBoer’s Crimson Tide, and the Seminoles had an open week to prepare for the rematch.

An Alabama loss would be a major upset.

A Florida State team playing with very little to lose makes it worth keeping an eye on.

No. 9 Texas A&M vs. Kentucky

When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET

Texas A&M has climbed into the Top 10 and enters its SEC opener as a significant favorite over Kentucky.

That’s exactly why this game can be dangerous.

The Aggies are coming off an emotional victory over Arizona State and have quickly moved into the early College Football Playoff discussion. Kentucky arrives in College Station without the same national attention and with an opportunity to change the perception of its season in one afternoon.

Oddsmakers aren’t anticipating much drama. Texas A&M was favored by approximately 18 points late in the week.

But conference games have a way of becoming uncomfortable when the favorite doesn’t put away an opponent early.

For Texas A&M, this is less about Kentucky possessing an obvious statistical advantage and more about avoiding the classic trap: a newly minted Top 10 team returning home after a significant win and facing an opponent almost everyone expects it to beat.

Handle Kentucky and Texas A&M keeps moving.

Let the Wildcats stay around into the fourth quarter and Kyle Field could become a much more nervous place.

No. 3 Notre Dame vs. Michigan State

When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBC

Notre Dame is nearly a 30-point favorite.

So let’s be clear: Michigan State winning in South Bend would be a massive upset.

But there are two reasons to keep this game on the radar.

First, Michigan State is 2-0.

Second, the weather could become a factor.

Forecasts entering the weekend called for a high probability of rain and possible thunderstorms in South Bend. If conditions force both teams to rely more heavily on the running game, possessions can shrink and games can become less predictable.

Michigan State’s defense has also been respectable against the run, ranking inside the top 35 nationally in EPA per rush and third- and fourth-down success.

Notre Dame has the talent advantage and home field.

The Spartans’ best hope is turning this into exactly the kind of game the Fighting Irish don’t want: wet, slow, physical and low on possessions.

If Michigan State can do that and remain within striking distance into the second half, things could get interesting.

The Upset Pick: New Mexico Over No. 24 Oklahoma

If we’re picking one Saturday game with the potential to produce the kind of final score that lights up everyone’s phone, it’s New Mexico-Oklahoma.

The Lobos are undefeated. Their pass defense has been excellent. Oklahoma is coming off a loss and has shown enough inconsistency offensively to make the matchup interesting.

Does that mean New Mexico should beat Oklahoma?

No. There’s a reason the Sooners are favored by more than 20 points.

But upsets don’t happen because the better team was secretly the underdog all along. They happen when a favorite allows an opponent to stay around long enough for a few plays to change everything.

Of Saturday’s heavily favored ranked teams, Oklahoma looks like one worth checking on throughout the night.

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