College football Week 5 upset watch: Florida, Alabama, Tennessee on alert
NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...
Alabama’s trip to unbeaten Mississippi State leads college football‘s Week 5 upset watch, and five more Power 4 favorites face danger from Friday night in Evanston through Saturday afternoon in Columbia, South Carolina.
No. 7 Alabama is a 5.5-point favorite at No. 16 Mississippi State and has won 16 straight games in the series. Each game gets an upset grade from 1 to 10, with 10 meaning the underdog has the clearest path to an outright win.
Six more games get shorter grades in the final section. Hat tip to Game On Paper for many of the advanced stats used in this article.
MORE: College football Week 5 best bets: 7 spread picks after major line movement
Penn State (-2.5) at Northwestern: Upset Watch 4
- Kickoff: Friday, Oct. 2, 8 p.m. ET (Fox)
Penn State fell out of the AP Top 25 after it blew a 17-0 lead in a 24-20 home loss to Wisconsin. Quarterback Rocco Becht went 12 of 29 with an interception, and the Nittany Lions still haven’t beaten a Power 4 team.
“The great teams in college football have the ability to grow each week,” first-year Penn State coach Matt Campbell said.
Northwestern opened its new Ryan Field, and it beat Penn State 22-21 at Beaver Stadium last season. Wildcats quarterback Aidan Chiles runs an offense that ranks 10th nationally in adjusted expected points added (EPA) per play. Northwestern coach David Braun still praised Becht this week. “Ultimately he is a winner,” Braun said.
Penn State’s defense ranks first in the country in EPA per pass allowed and third in third- and fourth-down success rate allowed. That pass defense is why the Nittany Lions survive a one-score game in Evanston.
Picks: Penn State 27-24, Penn State -2.5, Over 45.5
MORE: Week 5 college football prediction market picks: Pitt, West Virginia upset bets
Alabama at Mississippi State (+5.5): Upset Watch 9.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 3, noon ET (ABC)
Both teams are 4-0. Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell leads an offense that ranks sixth nationally in success rate, and the Crimson Tide’s defense ranks 10th in third- and fourth-down success rate allowed.
Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor has 14 touchdown passes and two interceptions. The Bulldogs rank 12th in adjusted offensive EPA per play and third in EPA per rush, and Davis Wade Stadium set a world record last week when 41,819 fans rang cowbells at once.
“He’s got a tremendous deep ball,” Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said of Taylor.
Alabama’s defense ranks 34th in EPA per rush allowed, so it’s vulnerable to the Bulldogs’ ground game. Coach Jeff Lebby’s run game and the noon crowd in Starkville give Mississippi State the outright upset.
Pick: Mississippi State 30-27, Mississippi State +6, Under 60.5
Auburn (+7.5) at Tennessee: Upset Watch 5.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 3, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
No. 17 Tennessee lost 20-17 to No. 1 Texas, and it also lost left guard Wendell Moe Jr. for the season on the opening drive. Moe was a first-team All-SEC pick last year.
“O-line has got to be better, can be better,” Vols coach Josh Heupel said after the loss.
Auburn coach Alex Golesh was Heupel’s offensive coordinator, so he knows this offense. The Tigers’ defense ranks 31st in rushing success rate allowed, and Vols quarterback Faizon Brandon leads a passing game that ranks 101st in EPA per pass.
Still, Tennessee ranks fifth nationally in EPA per rush. The Vols’ ground game wins at Neyland Stadium, but Auburn stays inside the 7.5-point spread.
Pick: Tennessee 28-22, Auburn +7, Under 53.5
MORE: Week 5 college fantasy football rankings: QB, RB, WR, TE and FLEX
Florida (-5.5) at Missouri: Upset Watch 1
- Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 3, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
No. 8 Florida is 4-0 after a 52-28 win over Ole Miss. Running back Jadan Baugh has 600 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, and the Gators rank first nationally in adjusted offensive EPA per play.
No. 25 Missouri’s best path is its pass defense, which ranks 21st in EPA per pass allowed, plus a net field position edge that ranks second in the country.
“(Baugh is a) tremendous running back; probably, right now, the best one in the country,” Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz said.
Florida’s run defense ranks 122nd in EPA per rush allowed, but Missouri ranks 107th in EPA per rush and can’t attack it. The Tigers are also 1-9 against ranked teams since the start of 2024.
Picks: Florida 33-23, Florida -5.5, Under 57.5
Ohio State (-13.5) at Iowa: Upset Watch 2
- Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 3, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
No. 14 Iowa is 4-0 after Hank Brown hit Reece Vander Zee for a touchdown on the final play of a 20-19 win at Michigan. The Hawkeyes have the nation’s best scoring defense, and Ohio State hasn’t won at Kinnick Stadium since 2010.
“This is one of the toughest stadiums in the country,” Buckeyes coach Ryan Day said.
Iowa’s offense ranks 89th in adjusted EPA per play, and its run game ranks 120th in success rate. No. 5 Ohio State, which already lost at Texas, ranks second in net adjusted EPA per play and third in pass success rate allowed. The Buckeyes’ defense keeps Iowa from scoring enough to pull off the upset.
Pick: Ohio State 31-16, Ohio State -13.5, Over 45.5
Kentucky (+3) at South Carolina: Upset Watch 10
- Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 3, 4:15 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Kentucky is No. 24, and South Carolina is unranked, but the Gamecocks are 3-point favorites. So a Kentucky win would be the betting upset, while a South Carolina win would count as an upset only in the rankings.
South Carolina has lost seven straight SEC games, and coach Shane Beamer suspended star edge rusher Dylan Stewart. Kentucky ranks 17th in rushing success rate, while the Gamecocks rank 88th in EPA per rush allowed. The Wildcats are chasing their first win in the series since 2021.
“What’s going to mean more to me is how we play this Saturday in Columbia,” first-year Kentucky coach Will Stein said.
Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers leads an offense that ranks 12th in EPA per rush, and that keeps South Carolina close in a high-scoring game.
Picks: Kentucky 31-27, Kentucky +3, Over 53.5
MORE: Dylan Stewart suspension: South Carolina’s Shane Beamer announces decision after punch
More upset watch games
- Pittsburgh (+3) at Virginia Tech: Upset Watch 8.5 (Friday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN). Both teams are 4-0, and Pitt’s defense ranks second nationally in success rate allowed. The Panthers also rank 23rd in adjusted EPA per play, while Virginia Tech ranks 56th, so Pitt is the outright upset pick at 27-24.
- Michigan at Minnesota (+5.5): Upset Watch 3 (Saturday, noon ET, Fox). Minnesota is 3-1 after a 27-24 win at Washington, but coach P.J. Fleck is 0-4 against Michigan. The Wolverines’ defense ranks 12th in EPA per rush allowed, so Michigan wins 24-20 while Minnesota covers.
- UCF (+12.5) at Houston: Upset Watch 2 (Saturday, noon ET, ESPN2). UCF remains without expected starting quarterback Alonza Barnett because of a hamstring injury. No. 20 Houston’s offense ranks third in adjusted EPA per play and first in third- and fourth-down success rate, and the pick is Houston 30-19.
- West Virginia (+3) at Iowa State: Upset Watch 7.5 (Saturday, noon ET, TNT). The Mountaineers ran for 335 yards against Oklahoma State and rank 26th in EPA per rush. Iowa State has won five of the last six meetings, but West Virginia is the outright upset pick at 31-27.
- Purdue (+9.5) at Illinois: Upset Watch 6 (Saturday, 4:15 p.m. ET, BTN). Illinois and Purdue rank 136th and 137th in adjusted EPA per play allowed, and Purdue’s offense ranks 15th. Illinois’ fifth-ranked offense wins 35-26, but Purdue stays inside the spread.
- BYU (-6.5) at TCU: Upset Watch 3.5 (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN). TCU has already lost to North Carolina and UCF. BYU ranks first nationally in rushing success rate, and running back LJ Martin averages 7.8 yards per carry, so the pick is BYU 30-21.
—Enjoy free coverage of the top news & trending stories with The Big Lead Newsletter —
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos