Dark horse teams that could make run at College Football Playoff during 2026 season

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

In its current form, the College Football Playoff affords space for some surprises. A second loss isn't the nail in the coffin it used to be, and every team — even those outside the power conferences — can trace a path to the 12-team field.

The playoff will inevitably expand, but, for now, a place in the bracket is equal parts coveted and achievable. That balance has set the stage for some iconic dark horses to emerge on a yearly basis.

Here are five that could dash into the CFP conversation this year: one from each Power Four conference and a fifth representing the Group of Six.

ACC Dark Horse: Louisville Cardinals

Jeff Brohm has won 28 games in three seasons at Louisville. Year 4 could be the breakthrough where the program finally barges into the CFP. That largely hinges on the play of transfer quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, a three-sport high school superstar from Pierre, South Dakota, who arrived at Ohio State with tantalizing athleticism but a ways to go technically. Since, he's learned under the likes of Chip Kelly and Ryan Day. Now Louisville's expected starter, Kienholz will likely have a chance to showcase the growth he's made. His dual-threat ability, combined with an awesome supporting cast that includes the Cardinals' latest batch of transfers, could deliver plenty of excitement and wins.

Brohm has aced the portal early in his stay at Louisville. He's earned trust in that department. So even though he has another team bursting at the seams with transplants, that can be easily viewed through the positive lens of red-colored glasses. QB1 will be sticking the ball in the bellies of Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown. They rushed for 884 and 704 yards, respectively, during the 2025 campaign. Both Browns posted at least 7.3 yards per carry. The receiver room features new yet proven names. Tre Richardson is coming off a seven-touchdown season with Vanderbilt, and he also averaged 25.1 yards on kickoff returns. Keep an eye on former Tulsa tight end Brody Foley, too. He reeled in 37 passes for 528 yards and seven scores last time around. Up front, the interior presence of Lance Robinson and Eryx Daugherty, a newcomer from Boston College, should help fortify the unit.

Defensive end Clev Lubin racked up 8.5 sacks and forced three fumbles last season. He's back for more. On the opposite side is AJ Green, a 6-foot-6, 250-pounder who's a backfield wrecker in his own right. There are notable returners in the other two levels of the defense as well. Antonio Watts is a playmaker at nickel, with a team-leading three interceptions and a pair of sacks justifying that reputation last season. He was part of a top-25 pass defense in 2025. The secondary will be leaning on transfers at the safety position, including Koen Entringer from Iowa. But there's a lot to like for co-coordinators Steve Ellis and Mark Ivey.

The neutral-site season opener against Ole Miss will be a litmus test, and the Cardinals' ACC opener versus SMU could be a similar gut check. The road gets a lot easier after that, however: no Notre Dame, Miami or Clemson.

Matt Kelley via Getty Images

Big 12 Dark Horse: Arizona Wildcats

Noah Fifita already owns the record for the most passing touchdowns in Wildcats history. He won't sniff the all-time NCAA record in that category. That said, he can still reach the century mark, a remarkable feat in itself. Fifita enters 2026 with 73 scoring strikes through the air. Last season, Brent Brennan's second as head coach, Fifita posted an impressive 29:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Although he lost his top-two receivers, it's necessary to underscore how he spread the ball around in 2025. 

In fact, Tré Spivey, who ranked third on the Wildcats in receiving yards, wound up with a team-high seven touchdown grabs. Offensive coordinator Seth Doege will be counting on continued progress from the 6-foot-4 wideout. Similarly, Chris Hunter will have to step up. He was third on Arizona's receptions leaderboard with 27 a season ago. Factor in Illinois transfer tight end Cole Rusk, Marshall transfer running back Antwan Roberts and some offensive line experience — heightened by the addition of Washington center Zach Henning — and you have a unit capable of launching some Big 12 fireworks.

Defense can be hard to come by in the conference. Arizona fielded a mighty fine one last season. With Danny Gonzales coordinating the group, the Wildcats finished fourth in the league in fewest points per game allowed (19.3) and second in fewest yards per play given up (4.67). Plus, the only team in the country that forced more turnovers than Arizona (31) in 2025 was Texas Tech (32). Replicating takeaway totals from year-to-year is always tricky. At least for the Wildcats, they've brought back several defenders who saw the field last season. Chase Kennedy is looking to build on a four-sack campaign, and Taye Brown is dependable at the linebacker position, where he amassed 93 total tackles as a junior. Arizona notably had to turn to the portal at safety this offseason. So that's a bit of a question mark going into the season.

So is, most importantly, how the Wildcats will handle the rigor of an unrelenting Big 12 schedule. Their slate is fraught with challenges, including road games against BYU, Texas Tech and Kansas State. Winning one of those would be solid. Taking two could put Brennan's Wildcats in position for something special. Look, there are other dark horse candidates in the Big 12 like K-State and Oklahoma State. In this exercise, though, we're highlighting Arizona, which can log back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since it enjoyed four straight from 2012-15.

Big Ten Dark Horse: UCLA Bruins

Indiana couldn't be classified as a dark horse two seasons ago. The Hoosiers didn't even have a spot in the starting gate ahead of Curt Cignetti's first season at the helm. The program had three winning seasons in the 21st century. A double-digit-win season wasn't part of its DNA. A mutation changed that in 2024, the beginning of one of college sports' most unlikely turnarounds, well, ever. You know how the rest goes.

MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images via Getty Images

UCLA isn't the laughingstock Indiana was on the gridiron. Even so, the Bruins needed a facelift after an entropic 2025 campaign that saw them stack their only three victories in a row, in Big Ten play no less. UCLA isn't exactly poised to undergo the same metamorphosis as Indiana this time around — the Hoosiers' Cinderella story is more of a fairytale than it is a blueprint — but there are some Year 1 parallels for head coach Bob Chesney.

Like Cignetti, Chesney joined the conference after a successful stint at James Madison. What's more significant than that resemblance is the fact that both coaches pulled heavily from their JMU staffs and rosters to make up their inaugural power-conference squads. Chesney carried over a collection of players who helped the Dukes win the Sun Belt and crack the CFP field a season ago. Headlining that cohort are running back Wayne Knight (1,770 scrimmage yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2025), wide receiver Landon Ellis (624 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns in 2025), defensive end Sahir West (seven sacks in 2025) and nickel DJ Barksdale (12 passes defended in 2025).

Chesney's newest quarterback, Nico Iamaleava, has played in the CFP before. Granted, that was when he was part of a Tennessee team that relied on a robust defense, but he's a former five-star recruit who has yet to fully realize his potential. Maybe Chesney can get him to maximize his versatile skill set. Chesney has won everywhere he's gone amid his voyage through the collegiate ranks, from Division III Salve Regina to Division II Assumption to FCS Holy Cross to JMU. No wonder an influx of transfer portal talent has followed him, and not just from his former school. Linebacker Sammy Omosigho, previously at Oklahoma, and former Utah safety Tao Johnson also come to mind. The key to a rapid ascent at UCLA? A favorable schedule. The Bruins have one. They dodge Ohio State and Indiana. A loss to Oregon on the road is likely. But there are an assortment of winnable games, and if they swipe one of two from Michigan and USC, things could get interesting.

SEC Dark Horse: Auburn Tigers 

There are a few SEC schools in the dark horse bucket this season. Florida and South Carolina are due for rebounds and could be filed into this category. But we think Auburn can reverse its recent misfortune and make a run at a CFP bid. The Tigers haven't won more than six games in a season since 2019. They've lost 12 of their past 13 one-score contests. They needed another reset, and that's where Alex Golesh comes in. The program's third head coach post-Gus Malzahn, Golesh resuscitated South Florida, which had won a combined four games in the three seasons prior to his arrival. He immediately guided the Bulls to back-to-back seven-victory campaigns, complete with bowl wins, and then oversaw a nine-win splash in 2025 that began with consecutive top-25 wins and paved the way for USF's first-ever appearance in the CFP rankings.

Quarterback Byrum Brown was a big part of that bloom. A powerful runner who can stretch the field with his arm — he completed 30 passes that traveled 20-plus air yards last season, per PFF — Brown authored 42 total touchdowns for USF in 2025. In 2026, he'll be spearheading Golesh's Auburn team. He netted more than 1,000 yards on the ground and threw for more than 3,000 along the way. Brown has the luxury of familiarity on offense, thanks to a receiving room that has USF fingerprints all over it: Keshaun Singleton, Christian Neptune, Jeremiah Koger and Chas Nimrod are all there. Singleton and Koger both hauled in eight TD passes a season ago. Auburn running back Jeremiah Cobb stuck around after nearly hitting the 1,000-yard rushing mark in 2025, and he's accompanied by Baylor transfer Bryson Washington and former USF back Nykahi Davenport. One of many teams rolling the dice in the trenches with a portal rush, Auburn's potential hiccups on the offensive line can be partly alleviated by Brown's mobility.

It's impossible to ignore the change on the defensive side of the ball. A constant is defensive coordinator DJ Durkin. He's been responsible for a pair of top-35 scoring defenses. There's belief he can stitch together a crew that can complement and, at times shoulder the burden of, a fun and fast offense. Linebacker Xavier Atkins is a name to know. He led the Tigers with 84 total tackles and nine sacks last season. Durkin will need guys to step up at cornerback — UCLA transfer Andre Jordan could be one of them — but the back seven/eight as a whole could be a strength. The Tigers' schedule is never easy, and this season is no exception. But a high-octane offense can stir the pot.

Group of Six Dark Horse: New Mexico Lobos

Remember, the winners of the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC will clinch a spot in this season's CFP, and the highest-ranked team from the Group of Six, including the new-look Pac-12, will receive a spot in the field, too, even if that G6 team isn't a conference champion. That's a modification from the past two iterations of the playoff, in which the five highest-ranked conference champions, regardless of conference, earned automatic bids.

The Group of Six has been represented by Boise State (2024), JMU (2025) and Tulane (2025) so far in the 12-team CFP. As for who's next, there are an array of options. If the American gets some more representation, maybe Navy rises from the dust of a league decimated by the portal this offseason. It's possible Boise State punches another ticket to the CFP, this time from the Pac-12. And don't rule out North Dakota State, which is eligible for postseason play from the jump after transitioning from the FCS, where it was a powerhouse for years. Let's stay in the Mountain West. That's where New Mexico, my final dark horse, lies.

Sam Wasson via Getty Images

The Lobos ranked 20th in the final returning production rankings released by ESPN's Bill Connelly. In an era when keeping players put — everywhere but especially in the Group of Six — is incredibly hard, New Mexico retained 68% of the output from an offense that dropped 35 points on UCLA last season and 40 more on UNLV. The Lobos won their final six regular-season games and clocked out 9-4. Now they're constructed to notch their first 10-win season since 1982. They might have to get by early on without quarterback Jack Layne, who's recovering from elbow surgery.

But New Mexico is strapped with returners on the offensive line and can call upon running back Scottre Humphrey, who previously topped the 1,000-yard barrier at FCS Montana State, and newcomers like North Texas transfer Kiefer Sibley, who posted 6.1 yards per carry and found the end zone five times last season. Plus, the Lobos' defense is arguably the pulse of the team. Look no further than the second level. Linebacker Jaxton Eck, the son of head coach Jason Eck, is one of the top defenders in the Mountain West, as evidenced by his 128 total tackles in 2025. New Mexico will be tested on Sept. 19 at Oklahoma. There's a chance the league, and potentially even the G6 CFP bid, comes down to the Lobos and UNLV in the conference championship game.

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos