Oregon Ducks Football Schedule SP+

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Every year I look at Oregon’s schedule using Bill Connelly’s SP+ as it’s an advanced stat that allows you to get an estimated line between any two teams by simply subtracting the two teams scores from each other and then adding or subtracting another 2.5 points for home field advantage.

Last year Oregon went 5-6 against the pre-season SP+ lines in their FBS regular season games, with the actual score being 3.05 points different from the line set on average.

Should SP+ hit 12 bullseyes this year with Oregon’s schedule the Ducks would go 11-1 in the regular season with the only loss being to Ohio State in Columbus. Which makes sense as the Ducks preseason over/under is 10.5.

However, we all know these teams aren’t just numbers on a spreadsheet. Every single FBS team will evolve this season, and their SP+ rating will evolve with them over the course of the season.  To try and account for this evolution I like to make a worst-case and best-case scenario by adjusting team scores and their opponents by a full possession of 8 points. Put another way I adjust the given line up by 16 points and down by 16 points. While Oregon underachieving it’s preseason SP+ rating by 8 points for the entire season and every single one of their opponents over achieving their rating by 8 points over the course of an entire season is highly unlikely, everything going wrong from a Ducks perspective for a single game is certainly a possibly.

What I’m essentially trying to do here is identify the individual matchups where the opponent is within striking distance of Oregon and it could flip a projected win into a loss.

Given Oregon is already projected to be the No. 2 team per SP+ let’s quickly get the best-case scenario out of the way as it’s simple. All 11 projected wins remain wins and additionally Oregon wins in Columbus to go 12-0.

What is far more interesting (and depressing) is the hypothetical nightmare scenario (HNS SP+) here are the lines.

• Week 1 Vs Boise St.- Line per HNS SP+: Oregon -10.5
• Week 2 At Oklahoma St Line per HNS SP+: Oregon -4.0
• Week 3 Vs Portland St Line per HNS SP+: Oregon -54.0*
• Week 4 At USC Line per HNS SP+: Oregon +7
• Week 6 Vs UCLA Line per HNS SP+: Oregon -10.5
• Week 7 Vs Nebraska Line per HNS SP+: Oregon -6.5
• Week 8 At Illinois Line per HNS SP+: Oregon -0.5
• Week 9 Vs Northwestern Line per HNS SP+: Oregon -10.5
• Week 10 At Ohio State Line per HNS SP+: Oregon +22.0
• Week 11 Vs Michigan Line per HNS SP+: Oregon +1.5
• Week 12 At Michigan State Line per HNS SP+: Oregon -8.5
• Week 13 Vs Washington Line per HNS SP+: Toss-Up

In comparing the SP+ predicted scenario versus the Hypothetical Best Case and Hypothetical Nightmare scenario 7 Games results stay the same no matter what and we can confidently project Oregon will win these games. Those games being; Boise State, At Oklahoma State, Portland State, UCLA, Nebraska, Northwestern, AT Michigan State.

Let’s go through the 5 games where the win or loss result is less certain and therefore will likely define the season:

Week 4 AT USC

Projected SP+ Line Oregon -9.0

Worst Case Scenario Line: Oregon +7.0

Per preseason SP+ this is the closest projected win for Oregon. Put another way it’s the most likely of Oregon’s projected wins to flip to a loss.

The September matchup against USC is as big as it gets as there are both micro and macro implications for both teams.

On a micro level looking at the 2026 season specifically it’s one of the first matchups of the year that features 2 pre-season top 15 teams. It’s the first matchup of the projected Top 4 teams in the B1G. The result of the game will have major B1G standing and college football playoff implications.

On a macro level it’s a battle for west coast bragging rights. As the historical blue blood on the west coast USC has lost its way the past 15 years post Pete Caroll and Oregon took full advantage.

Regardless of the outcome of this one game Oregon and USC will likely be very competitive with each other in the short, medium, and long term. But that won’t stop the fans of each team heavily leaning into the implications should their side win:

• For Oregon it’s an opportunity to continue to own the west coast on the field
• For USC it’s the opportunity to take back the west coast on the field

For confident Oregon fans the preseason hype on USC is nothing to be concerned about because we have seen this story before. Since Pete Caroll left, the Trojans have started ranked inside the Top 15 (just as they are this season) 9 times. 6 of those 9 seasons the Trojans finished the season unranked.

Despite that history this Oregon fan thinks there are legitimate reasons to say, “no, the 10^th time will be different”.

1. In his 4 years as USC head coach Lincoln Reilly’s offence has averaged a F+ finish of 7^th in all of college football
2. Returning from the 6^th rated offence last year is
   1. Starting QB Jaiden Maiva
   1. 3 Offensive linemen
   1. 3 talented Skill players to go along with the addition of a great receiver from the portal
3. High school recruiting has ticked up in the 2026 and 2027 classes
4. The new defensive coordinator is one of the brightest defensive minds of the 21^st century
   1. From 2008 to 2020 his defenses finished on average ranked 21^st in F+
   1. The best rated non-COVID defense Riley has fielded ranked 37^th

September 26^th, we find out if it’s the same old post Pete Caroll USC or if I raised the alarm bell for nothing.

Week 8 At Illinois

Projected SP+ Line Oregon -16.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: Oregon -0.5

Further cementing this game as a potential trap for Oregon beyond my arbitrary adjustment of the SP+ figures is the fact Illinois is coming off a BYE before this matchup while Oregon is not. While the adjusted SP+ has this game as a toss-up should things break right for Illinois on October 24^th, I’m a little lower on Illinois than the consensus for 2026. For full details you can read my roster preview article, but the short of it is:

1. A lot of the players that left for Power schools via the portal were replaced with G6 and FCS players
2. Poor offensive line development since Bielema took the job
3. A schematic change on the defensive side that may take a full off-season cycle to implement

So, while the numbers and the set-up of BYEs say Oregon could be in a dog fight here, I’m still confident the Ducks will be able to pull out a win when they travel to Champaign.

Week 10 At Ohio State

Projected SP+ Line: Oregon +6

Best Case Scenario Line: Oregon -10

The one game the Ducks are favored to lose in the preseason is their November trip to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes. This is the one pivotal game that could swing from a Ducks loss to a potential Ducks win as SP+ currently favors Ohio State by 6 points.

Ohio State figures to be an elite team as they always are. The Buckeyes are No. 1 in both preseason SP+ and FEI, they have plenty of future NFL players, and a defensive coordinator that orchestrated one of the greatest college defenses of the last 15 years.

Ohio State isn’t bullet proof they have questions, but the advantage the Buckeyes have is each of their high school recruiting classes the past 4 years have been Top 5 classes meaning they have almost the best possible answers to any question you may have about their roster.

For Oregon to pick up a win in Columbus this year one of two things needs to happen:

1. Ohio State has an off year.
   1. The last off-year the Buckeyes had was in 2011 due to the sanctions following tattoo gate before then the last off-year they had was 2004

I’m going to go ahead and say that is unlikely so

• Oregon needs to be a truly elite team

Over the last 14 years, Ohio State has lost a total of 5 games at home under Urban Meyer and Ryan Day. It’s a rare occurrence and it takes a rare team to be able to do it.

Week 11 Vs Michigan

Projected SP+ Line Oregon -14.5

Worst Case Scenario Line Oregon +1.5

After what is expected to be a true clash of the titans in Week 10 the very next week Oregon plays host to the other traditional face of the B1G when Michigan comes to Eugene.

2026 is projected to be a bit of a transition year for the Wolverines under new coach and familiar foe Kyle Whittingham even still Michigan is ranked 15^th in SP+ meaning that, should things break right this year, they could be competitive with the Ducks in Eugene.

Dan Lanning has lost exactly two games at home as Ducks head coach. Each of those teams had a QB that would go on to be a Top 10 pick in the NFL draft. Michigan’s QB Bryce Underwood comes in with the pedigree of one of those future NFL 1^st rounders, but after an up and down true freshman year, he needs to make a lot of progress if he is going to live up to that hype, take Michigan to the next level, and potentially win a game at Autzen.

Week 13 Vs Washington

Projected SP+ Line Oregon -16.0

Worst Case Scenario Line Toss-Up

It is an unfamiliar time for both Oregon and Washington fans given the trajectories of both programs. It’s the only time in history where both teams appear to be trending upwards at the same time as traditionally one would be ascending while the other was descending.

The instinct of both fan bases is “we are trending up therefore the enemy must be trending down” but I’m here to tell you it is in fact possible for both teams to be good at the same time and that’s what I suspect will be the case for 2026.

While both teams are trending in the right direction Oregon is enjoying the benefit of a headstart thanks to Kalen DeBoer nuking the program as he left for Alabama in 2024. That’s why SP+ has Oregon as nearly a 3 possession favorite this preseason. But with the direction Washington is trending the Huskies are within striking distance of the Ducks.

Your instinct as an Oregon fan may view that as a bad sign. As I said before if a team was in striking of distance of the other it likely was a signal the winds of the pacific northwest were changing. But I’m here to tell you it’s a sign of how strong the Oregon program is. Washington is the 18^th team in preseason SP+ and the preseason projections have Oregon has a pretty heavy favorite in the late November matchup.

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