ESPN predicts all 16 Big 12 football teams' win-loss records in 2026

Only one Big 12 football team is projected to win at least 10 games in 2026.

ESPN recently projected all 16 Big 12 teams' win-loss records, and no team is projected to finish with fewer than five wins this season. That is not surprising news for a conference that routinely is one of the most competitive conferences in the FBS. Nearly every team enters the 2026 season having realistic hopes of making a bowl game.

To come up with these projections, ESPN uses its analytics-based model, Football Power Index. The model takes into account the remaining scheduled games and any previous results. With no games having been played yet, the model is entirely predictive until the season begins.

NOTE: Each team's win-loss record may not be a whole number due to the different number of games played in each simulation.

Big 12 football projected win-loss record in 2026, according to ESPN FPI

1. Texas Tech Red Raiders: 10.8-1.8
2. BYU Cougars: 8.7-3.6
3. Utah Utes: 7.7-4.4
4. Houston Cougars: 7.4-4.7
5. Arizona Wildcats: 7.3-4.8
6. Kansas State Wildcats: 7.0-5.1
7. TCU Horned Frogs: 6.8-5.3
8. Baylor Bears: 6.6-5.5
9. Cincinnati Bearcats: 6.4-5.7
10. UCF Knights: 6.1-5.9
11. Kansas Jayhawks: 6.0-6.0
12. Colorado Buffaloes: 6.0-6.1
13. Oklahoma State Cowboys: 6.0-6.1
14. Arizona State Sun Devils: 6.0-6.1
15. West Virginia Mountaineers: 5.4-6.6
16. Iowa State Cyclones: 5.1-6.9

Just a glance and you can tell how tight the Big 12 projects to be, with No. 14-No. 6 separated by only one game. Any one of those nine teams winning the conference would not be shocking, but neither would a 4-win season. In the Big 12, everything can happen every week.

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This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: ESPN predicts all 16 Big 12 football teams' win-loss records in 2026