Expert predictions, picks for Florida football at Missouri in Week 5

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Florida football is off to its hottest start since 2019, racking up a perfect 4-0 record in Jon Sumrall's first four games as head coach. Since the opening kickoff of the 2026 campaign, the Gators have gone from an SEC afterthought to a potential College Football Playoff participant.

Sumrall and Co., who are ranked eighth in both the US LBM Coaches Poll and AP Top 25, face their next test this Saturday in Columbia against the Missouri Tigers, who are 3-1 and sit at No. 25 in both major polls. Florida trails in the all-time series by one game and has lost the last two matchups in Memorial Stadium, but has prevailed in three of the past five meetings.

Ahead of the SEC showdown at Faurot Field, the Gators Wire staff convened to offer their expert predictions and picks for the Florida-Missouri game in Week 5. Take a look below at what we had to say.

'Expect Sumrall and Co. to roll to victory in this one'

Florida has only won twice in six tries at Faurot Field, which has proven to be a tough place to play for the Orange and Blue. However, the Gators already persevered through a tough environment at Auburn, so they at least have an idea of what it takes to win away from the Swamp against an SEC foe.

This year, Florida's offense is the most explosive corps seen in ages and the defense has shown that it can step up in crunch time despite lingering questions in the secondary. Based on what was witnessed last week for both teams, it is hard not to see the Gators prevailing on Saturday.

Jadan Baugh will have another 100-plus-yard game, the defense will continue to coalesce and the special teams will play their role once again as well. Expect Sumrall and Co. to roll to victory in this one. — Adam Dubbin

PREDICTION: Florida 45, Missouri 27

'I expect another dominating performance from Sumrall’s program'

In recent years, Missouri has had Florida’s number, but under Jon Sumrall, everything we previously knew about the Gators has seemingly gone out the window. The new coaching regime has completely changed how the Gators are viewed this season, bringing back the Orange and Blue confidence seen under Urban Meyer and Steve Spurrier.

Mizzou’s defense has struggled the past few weeks, giving up nearly 20 points to Troy and allowing Mississippi State to record 499 total yards of offense, the Bulldogs' highest mark since facing UL Monroe in Week 1. Florida’s offense will continue to be the difference in this matchup. The Gators have eclipsed 495 yards of total offense in each of their first four games.

I expect another dominating performance from Sumrall’s program, showing why they were inserted into the conversation with the national championship contenders. — Michael Trim Jr.

PREDICTION: Florida 52, Missouri 24

'Florida has looked like the better team too consistently'

I played devil's advocate a week ago, but the Ole Miss win has me buying Sumrall all the way now. Fifty points feels inevitable for this offense, and the defense has improved while still leaving plenty of room for improvement.Missouri should make Florida work harder than the final score against Ole Miss suggests. The Tigers can rush the passer, and Austin Simmons has played well enough that I don't expect the Gators to completely control the game from the jump.

But Florida has reached the point where it doesn't need everything to go right to score. That's probably what has changed my opinion the most. Jadan Baugh and Duke Clark can carry the offense if Aaron Philo doesn't have his best day. Philo has enough weapons to punish teams that sell out against the run and the secondary has shown it can create the turnover that flips a possession.

Missouri may hang around for a while, but I'm done expecting the other shoe to drop every week. Florida has looked like the better team too consistently. — David Rosenberg

PREDICTION: Florida 51, Missouri 27

'I like Florida to pull away late'

Florida validated the hype around first-year head coach Jon Sumrall last week with an emphatic win over Ole Miss. The offense has scored 40-plus points in each of the first four games, while the defense has forced three turnovers and recorded eight sacks over the last two games.

The results have been there, but a few persistent concerns compel me to stop short of viewing this game as a lock for the Gators. Mainly, Florida must control what it can control; Aaron Philo can't miss open receivers on scoring opportunities and I'd like to see the team show improvement in limiting penalties. Only the fine details stand in front of UF becoming a truly elite team this season.

Another important note is that Jadan Baugh and Duke Clark will face one of the nation's top run defenses this week in Missouri. The Tigers allow just 87.3 rushing yards per game (No. 24 in FBS). It will be interesting to see how the game unfolds if Philo is forced to stand in the pocket and deliver on obvious passing downs.

I like Florida to pull away late as Baugh and the run game eventually wear down Missouri. — Michael Long

PREDICTION: Florida 40, Missouri 28

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This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: Expert predictions, picks for Florida football at Missouri in Week 5

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