Florida vs. Ole Miss Odds, Predictions, Picks: Our Staff’s Best Bets for Saturday’s Spread & Over/Under

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The No. 21 Florida Gators host the No. 4 Ole Miss Rebels in a top-25 SEC showdown on Saturday, Sept. 26, at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

This game could certainly be considered a flat spot for Ole Miss, which is coming off a 32-24 victory over former head coach Lane Kiffin and his LSU squad.

That showdown was one of the most highly anticipated college football games in recent memory. After taking care of the Tigers, will the Rebels be up for yet another ranked opponent in The Swamp?

On the other side, Florida and first-year head coach Jon Sumrall are riding high following a 44-39 victory over Auburn. After previously dismantling FAU and Campbell, that marked the Gators’ first big win of the Sumrall era.

So, who holds the value here? We polled nine of our college football staff members to get their take on the spread and over/under for Saturday’s game.

Let’s take a look at our Florida vs. Ole Miss picks and college football predictions for Saturday, Sept. 26.

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-3.5

Pass

+3.5

Our Staff’s Pick: Florida -3.5

By RoadToCFB

Despite securing a program-defining win at home last week, our staff is pretty uniform when it comes to Ole Miss at Florida. Of our nine voters, six align with the Gators, while two others say it’s a coin-flip.

If you were to search “Bad Spot” in the dictionary, you’d find this exact game.

Ole Miss comes in off an emotional and explosive win over LSU in which Trinidad Chambliss vaulted himself atop the Heisman Trophy odds boards.

The Rebels now hit the road to play a much more physical and disciplined Florida team than we ever saw under Billy Napier, now with  Jon Sumrall at the helm.

Offensively, Florida hasn’t hit on explosive plays yet, but it hasn’t needed to given its top-15 standing in Success Rate, EPA Per Play and yards per play.

The talent is very much there, but it’s the addition of offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner that has really increased the output of this offense.

Faulkner is a master at creating yards and easy opportunities for quarterback Aaron Philo, who followed him from Georgia Tech.

The issue for Florida comes on defense, where it gave up 39 points and allowed what was a struggling Auburn offense to gain 81% of available yards.

The defensive front will have its hands full against Ole Miss this week, as the offensive line managed to gain ground on LSU’s star-studded front.

Ultimately, our team sees this as the ultimate fall-flat spot for Pete Golding and Co. in what can be one of college football’s most hostile environments. Expect The Swamp to play a significant factor this weekend.

Our Staff’s Pick: Over 58.5

By RoadToCFB

Despite this being a big game, our experts feel pretty strongly about this game going over 58.5 points.

Both Florida and Ole Miss have shown cracks in the defensive armor so far this season.

There’s genuine concern about the Gators after they allowed too many sustained drives to an Auburn offense that fell flat for just 17 points in Week 1 against Baylor.

Ole Miss’ defense, meanwhile, performed admirably against LSU, but it couldn’t get off the field when the Tigers became desperate in the second half.

Fortunately for the Rebels, Trinidad Chambliss and the offense shortened the second half with sustained drives of their own — there were only three full drives in the fourth quarter — but the defense allowed nine third-down conversions and two fourth-down conversions. Not ideal when nursing a lead.

LSU found rushing lanes last week and produced a 100-yard rusher in Dilin Jones, plus almost another (non-sack rushing yards) in Sam Leavitt.

Florida running back Jadan Baugh leads the SEC with 438 yards (8.0 per attempt) and the nation with eight rushing touchdowns. Expect another quality day from him here.

Ole Miss runs the eighth-fastest tempo in the country and rosters more offensive weapons than almost anybody in the country, including the Heisman favorite.

With a quick tempo, explosive players in every phase for both offenses and a prime fast-track field (80 degrees and light winds), our staff sees this as a game prime to go over its posted point total.

Florida vs. Ole Miss Player Prop Predictions

Trinidad Chambliss Over 287.5 Passing Yards (Play to 290.5)

By Alex Hinton

As Nick Saban would say, Ole Miss has received a great deal of “rat poison” after winning one of the biggest games in school history and getting revenge on former head coach Lane Kiffin.

The Rebels now find themselves up to the No. 4 team in the AP Top 25, and quarterback Trinidad Chambliss is the betting favorite to win the Heisman.

However, given his calm, cool and collected demeanor, Chambliss shouldn’t be affected by all the noise.

In the win over LSU, Chambliss threw for 363 passing yards and two touchdown passes. That marked his fifth 300-yard passing game in his last nine games. He’s averaging 315.3 passing yards per game in that span.

That includes 301 passing yards against Florida in Oxford last season despite being sacked five times.

Only one other team has sacked Chambliss even three times, and the Gators will be looking to get after him again, especially playing at home this time around.

Florida ranks 15th in Havoc this season but 73rd in Passing Success Rate allowed. The Gators have given up 270 passing yards or more in two of their first three games this season and now have to deal with Chambliss and all of his weapons.

Additionally, Florida being the favorite here may actually work in Chambliss’ favor when it comes to clearing this line. As an underdog, Florida upset Ole Miss, 24-17, two years ago, and Jaxson Dart threw for 323 yards on 41 attempts trying to bring the Rebels back.

If Ole Miss is trailing in the second half again, Chambliss will be throwing, perhaps on every down, in an attempt to bring his team back. It may be a pass-heavy approach anyway if star running back Kewan Lacy can’t go.

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