Georgia vs. Alabama score prediction by expert football model: Upset in SEC country?
NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...
College football’s game of the week kicks off from Tuscaloosa as top-ten ranked SEC foes Georgia and Alabama face off in an SEC heavyweight fight that will have enormous consequences for the conference championship and the national playoff picture going forward.
And it could determine who is named the No. 1 team in college football next week if pollsters are impressed enough to make a change at the top again.
What do the experts think of the matchup? For that, let’s turn to the SP+ college football model to project the game, and use it to lock in our own prediction.
Georgia vs. Alabama score prediction: Is an upset brewing?
As happened in their last meeting, the model is taking the side of the Bulldogs against the Crimson Tide once again.
SP+ predicts that Georgia will defeat Alabama by a projected score of 30 to 27 and will win the game by an expected margin of 2.5 points in the process.
The model gives the Bulldogs a narrow 56 percent chance of outright victory on the road against the Tide.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 146-122-3 in its picks against the spread with a 54.4 win percentage.
What Actually Happens? Can the Crimson Tide Take Down the Bulldogs?
Georgia owns the most recent victory against Alabama, dominating in a 28-7 win for the SEC championship in December, but Kalen DeBoer’s team is 2-0 against Kirby Smart in their last two regular season meetings.
In addition to leading college football as the only offense to average more than 50 points per game, the Georgia defense is once again one of the most well-coordinated, not allowing more than 20 points once yet this year.
But it will be tested by an Alabama attack spearheaded by dual-threat quarterback Keelon Russell, who leads a unit that ranks No. 1 in college football in offensive success rate. He should be able to move the ball with some success in the air against the Bulldog secondary, which has not faced anything of Bama’s caliber yet.
What Happens? Alabama beats Georgia and covers the spread.
Line: Alabama -1.5, 52.5, via DraftKings
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
—Enjoy free coverage of the top news & trending stories with The Big Lead Newsletter —
More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos