Hot seats, huge buyouts and mounting Pressure: College football's most vulnerable coaches
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Cooler temperatures and hotter coaching seats: both are sure signs college football has turned the calendar to October.
Even the pandemic-altered 2020 season, with shortened schedules and sparse crowds, produced more than 15 head coaching changes across the Football Bowl Subdivision.
Just last year, neither James Franklin nor Brian Kelly survived the month. Franklin was only 10 months removed from a College Football Playoff semifinal appearance, while Kelly left LSU with a 34-14 record and a staggering $54 million buyout.
It would be naïve to think October won't claim more coaches this year. That's true even as the Senate recently passed the Protect College Sports Act, which includes provisions aimed at regulating the timing of coaching hires and firings. The bill is far from becoming law, but the very existence of that clause underscores the chaos and urgency that define this sport every fall.
With that in mind, here's USA TODAY Sports' Heat Check: Backside discomfort.
Shane Beamer, South Carolina
The text arrived just before midnight Saturday from a veteran beat reporter who has covered South Carolina for years:
"Not sure I have the energy for a coaching search, but I think that's what I'm getting."
That's where things stand with Shane Beamer. The Gamecocks have lost nine straight games against Power Four opponents, and the optimism that once surrounded the program has been replaced by growing frustration and resignation.
Beamer is under contract through the end of 2030, but that deal won't shield him from scrutiny. If South Carolina were to move on for on-field performance alone, the buyout would currently sit at roughly $22.6 million thanks to a 65% payout provision.
To put that number in perspective, it's roughly equivalent to the entire football budget of one of the SEC's least-funded programs in 2026. The price tag is enormous. So is the pressure.
Mike Locksley, Maryland
Maryland has gone from a respectable, bowl-caliber program to one in full freefall against Power Four competition, dropping 11 consecutive games against such opponents.
The slide has accelerated this season under Locksley. The Terrapins have lost their past two Big Ten games, first to UCLA and first-year coach Bob Chesney and then at Nebraska on Oct. 3, by a combined 76 points.
Those blowouts are part of a troubling trend. Since the start of the 2024 season, Maryland has suffered 13 losses by 14 points or more and posted a 10-19 record overall.
The schedule offers little relief. Next up is a trip to face No. 6 Ohio State, a matchup that could turn an already alarming situation into a full-blown crisis.
Dabo Swinney, Clemson
The term "Clemsoning" isn't making a comeback. Swinney's two national championships and Clemson's decade-long stranglehold on the ACC buried that label long ago.
But those glory days are no longer just fading in the rearview mirror. They're becoming increasingly difficult to find, even with GPS.
The latest reminder came in a 41-13 demolition against Miami, which marched into Death Valley and stripped away whatever mystique remained. Any aura Clemson once carried has all but vanished.
One rival ACC assistant pointed to a simple explanation: a "talent problem." If that's the case, the responsibility ultimately falls on Swinney. He's not just the head coach; he's Clemson's Chief Football Officer and Chief Talent Officer.
The road ahead offers little mercy. Clemson still must face a resurgent Virginia Tech under James Franklin, an improving Florida State team led by Mike Norvell and defending ACC champion Duke.
Then comes the season-ending Palmetto Bowl against rival South Carolina, a game that could leave Clemson fans buying brown bags in bulk.
Deion Sanders, Colorado
Two things can be true at once: Sanders' arrival in Boulder three years ago turned Colorado football into must-see entertainment, and the program's current state has become must-see drama.
Sanders hired then-rising coach Brennan Marion as offensive coordinator after last season, tasking him with implementing his self-described "Go-Go offense." So far, the results against Power Four competition have been anything but revolutionary.
Colorado has managed just 34 total points across three games against Power Four opponents, a dozen quarters of offensive frustration that has raised more questions than answers.
Sanders is now shuffling quarterbacks in search of a spark, but time is running short. The Buffaloes have an open date this week before No. 12 Utah comes to Boulder on Oct. 17, giving the staff two weeks to find solutions before another major test arrives.
The show remains compelling. The problem for Colorado is that the plot has shifted from breakthrough to breakdown.
Greg Schiano, Rutgers
Rutgers' bye week did little more than delay what increasingly feels like an inevitable reckoning for the Schiano redux.
The Scarlet Knights returned from the open date only to be humiliated at home by defending College Football Playoff champion Indiana, 47-15. The game was effectively over by halftime at 23-0 and only got worse from there, with Indiana stretching the lead to 37-0 at one point.
Regression is no longer a fear in Piscataway. It's the reality. Rutgers has lost nine of its past 11 Big Ten games, erasing much of the momentum that once surrounded Schiano's second stint.
The biggest obstacle to change may be financial. Despite increased investment in the program, Rutgers gave Schiano a remarkably coach-friendly contract. If fired, he's owed 76.875% of his remaining base salary, paid in biweekly installments through Feb. 28, 2030, with limited mitigation from future employment, according to terms reviewed by USA TODAY Sports.
Rutgers entered this season carrying roughly $29.25 million in remaining obligations to Schiano. Even now, the university would still be on the hook for approximately $22.5 million before any offsets.
The losses are piling up. So is the bill.
Hot seat warming watch
Lincoln Riley, USC: Fully on the list a week ago, Riley did not just enough to avoid vaulting into the top spot with a lackluster, sloppy 25-21 win against Washington in which the Trojans were flagged nine times for 84 yards and got the game-winning score on a defensive touchdown.
Bill Belichick, UNC: The Tar Heel have back-to-back away games at Pitt and Duke, two teams thus far among the ACC’s upper-crust. Notre Dame shoved around UNC to the tune of 475 yards, with the vaunted Belichick defense had no answers for Irish QB C.J. Carr — four passing touchdowns and a running one for extra excellence. Five of Belichick’s 10 UNC losses — in his first 16 games, mind you — have been by 11 or more points. Off-field scandal and on-field deficiencies are not a good combination, especially with Belichick only guaranteed his UNC salary through 2027.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hot seats, huge buyouts and mounting Pressure: College football's most vulnerable coaches
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