How Kentucky can defeat No. 10 LSU on Saturday
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Kentucky football hosts the number ten team in the country under the lights at Kroger Field at 7 P.M. ET on Saturday. Lane Kiffin's LSU Tigers will be making their second road trip of the season as they come to Lexington. We have previewed the LSU offense and defense, as well as given our X factors for both sides of the football. There is a lot of familiarity between Kentucky offensive coordinator Joe Sloan and LSU defensive coordinator Blake Baker, and more than a few Wildcats have ties to LSU making this matchup extra exciting.
How does Kentucky keep the momentum of the Will Stein era rolling, shock the world and defeat LSU in the first night game of the season?
Win the Turnover Margin
Kentucky has been incredibly opportunistic all season, and the Wildcats defense has relied heavily on takeaways to gain an edge on teams despite allowing plenty of yardage. Kentucky has the second highest forced turnover percentage in the SEC. The Wildcats sit in the top 20 among FBS teams with a +5 turnover margin, and LSU is even on the year which is ranked 65th among FBS teams. Quarterback Sam Leavitt leads the conference with seven interceptions on the season, whereas Kenny Minchey has thrown 11 touchdowns to just one interception.
This is a critical area in every game, but this one especially. Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weis will find ways to move the football down the field and score points, it is what they do. Kentucky's defense lacks linebacker depth and has struggled to get teams off the field on third downs all season. However, this Kentucky defense has done a great job at creating turnover opportunities in big moments and rattling opposing quarterbacks; given Sam Leavitt's track record in SEC road environments, the atmosphere at Kroger Field on Saturday night could play a factor in this happening yet again.
Stay on Schedule
Kentucky has struggled to convert third downs on offense this season, in fact they rank dead last in third down conversion rate among FBS teams. However, the Wildcats rank first in the SEC in early down conversion rate, as they are consistently moving the chains on 1st and/or 2nd down. This has to continue, you do not want to try and solve this third down problem against Blake Baker's defense with game wrecking edge defender Princewill Umanmielen who leads the country in sacks. Kentucky has to continue to stay on schedule offensively and allow their scheme to create mismatches.
Kenny Minchey continues to develop in this system and he has shown phenomenal poise in the pocket. Minchey was rattled against Alabama's defense, but he has been lights out on the road at tough environments like Texas A&M and South Carolina. This is a real test to see how much Minchey has grown since week two because LSU is statistically the best defense in the SEC against the pass. The Tigers rank first in the SEC in EPA per play and EPA per dropback allowed, they have a high level secondary and a dangerous defensive line.
Create Explosives
LSU has a really effective defense, but they are liable to give up explosive plays this season. The Tigers rank 12th in SEC in explosive play rate allowed on the season, this is an area that Kentucky has to exploit. Kentucky ranks 5th among SEC teams in explosive play percentage, so they have consistently generated explosives throughout the season. Kentucky will rely heavily on play action shots and getting chunk plays in the run game to set up those shot play opportunities.
Kenny Minchey has been the best quarterback in the SEC in play action, as he leads the conference in play action success rate. Minchey also ranks third in the SEC explosive play percentage on play action passes. It is critical for Kentucky to lean on the running game like they have all season long to set up these explosive play action pass opportunities. Kentucky's best way to find success on this LSU defense is by creating explosives.
This article originally appeared on UK Wildcats Wire: How Kentucky can defeat No. 10 LSU on Saturday
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