How many games will the Badgers win in 2026?

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The 2026 college football season is finally upon us. We saw some Week 0 games take place this weekend, but the official start of the season is this Sunday for the Wisconsin Badgers, who will take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in primetime at Lambeau Field.

The Wisconsin Badgers are set to look far different on paper than they did in 2025, adding over 30 players from the transfer portal, while having new starters at nearly every position on the roster. With an increased budget, the Badgers and head coach Luke Fickell have a make-or-break season ahead of them, with a bowl appearance being a non-negotiable.

The true question is: how many games can Wisconsin actually win in 2026? We’ve talked about the floor and ceiling cases for what the Badgers can be, but let’s go through each matchup and see what lies ahead for Wisconsin in 2026.

Heading into the season, the Badgers are currently projected to win 6.5 games by FanDuel Sportsbook, with the odds slightly favoring the over.

Game 1: vs. Notre Dame(Lambeau Field)

The Badgers are clear underdogs against a Top 10 team in Week 1, as they face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who return quarterback C.J. Carr, a Heisman candidate for the 2026 season.

Wisconsin is currently a 20.5-point underdog against the Fighting Irish, and it’ll be a major surprise if they can pull off a victory in one of the more difficult games of the season.

Game 2: vs. Western Illinois

The Badgers first true home game comes against Western Illinois in Week 2. The Leathernecks cruised by NAIA Northwestern (IA) in their season opener this weekend, and they’ll get a bye week before facing Wisconsin at Camp Randall Stadium.

This should be one of the easier games on Wisconsin’s schedule, as they face a team that went 4-8 in 2025.

Game 3: vs. Eastern Michigan

The Badgers cap their non-conference slate against Eastern Michigan in Week 3 at Camp Randall Stadium.

Led by former Michigan State quarterback Noah Kim, the Eagles won their first game as well this past weekend against Sacramento State. Still, this should be another one of Wisconsin’s easiest games in 2026, as the Eagles also went 4-8 with Kim at the helm a year ago.

Game 4: @ No. 18 Penn State

Things start to get tricky in Week 4 as Wisconsin opens its Big Ten slate against the No. 18 Penn State Nittany Lions. Penn State has also gone through a ton of changes this offseason after hiring Matt Campbell, so both teams could be using the first month of the season to figure things out.

But, with this being a road game against a top-20 team in the country, I don’t foresee the Badgers being favorites in this game, and it’ll be hard to pull off the upset here.

Game 5: vs. Michigan State

Wisconsin hosts Michigan State and new head coach Pat Fitzgerald in Week 5 at Camp Randall Stadium, which comes after the Spartans face Notre Dame and Nebraska in back-to-back weeks.

The Spartans project to be one of the worst teams in the Big Ten this season, with the odds heavily favoring them to be under their 4.5 projected win total.

With this game also being at Camp Randall Stadium, the Badgers should be favorites here. But it was this type of game that Wisconsin struggled with last season (see: Maryland), and we should get a sense of Wisconsin’s toughness by now.

Game 6: @ UCLA

After a bye week, the Badgers will travel to the West Coast and face the UCLA Bruins in Week 8, taking on new head coach Bob Chesney.

UCLA and Wisconsin are seen similarly by the odds heading into the 2026 season, with both teams having a projected win total of 6.5 games. The odds are slightly favored towards the under for UCLA to hit.

The Bruins have a manageable start to the year, facing Cal, San Diego State, Purdue, and Maryland over the first four weeks of the season. But they do take on No. 2 Oregon in Week 7 on the road before hosting the Badgers in Week 8.

This one could be one of the more competitive games on the schedule, and will be a true litmus test for the Badgers and their growth. But if they want to hit their win total, this is a game they must win (as they have in the past).

Game 7: vs. USC

After the cross-country trip to UCLA, the Badgers host No. 14 USC at home in Week 9. And the Trojans offense should be one of the best in the country again, as advertised in their Week 0 win over San Jose State.

USC does have a lot of younger players seeing key snaps this season, but they’ll be fully ramped up by this stage. This is one of Wisconsin’s hardest games on the schedule and one where they could be serious underdogs.

Game 8: @ Iowa

One of the most important games of the season, this will be the true litmus test of Wisconsin’s physicality.

Iowa’s quarterback situation is worse than last year (which is saying something), but they’re still a hard-nosed, physical football team that works out of the trenches. Wisconsin has been dog-walked in each of the past two matchups, and this rivalry has turned in favor of the Hawkeyes in recent years.

Wisconsin will be on the road and will have to match the physicality to compete in this game.

Game 9: vs. Rutgers

The Badgers take on Rutgers in Week 9, facing a team that is projected to win just 4.5 games in 2026. This one will also be at home for Wisconsin, and is a must-win if they want to reach bowl eligibility.

This is the game that previous Badgers teams have steamrolled through. We’ll see if this team can put up a strong fight and rise to the occasion.

Game 10: @ Maryland

The Badgers lost this game embarrassingly last year, 27-10, as Billy Edwards got hurt in his return from injury. On paper, the Terrapins have some strong pieces, including sophomore quarterback Malik Washington.

But they’re projected to hit the under on their 5.5-win total this season. Once again, to reach bowl eligibility and have a successful season, this has to be a win for the Badgers.

Game 11: @ Purdue

This stretch here is the easiest of the schedule for Wisconsin, as they face Rutgers, Maryland, and Purdue in consecutive weeks.

This one will be on the road, but the Badgers should be favored in this contest as well, and they absolutely need to win this game. Purdue is favored to win fewer than 3.5 games this season.

Game 12: vs. Minnesota

The most important game of the season comes at the end, as always, as the Badgers will face Minnesota in primetime at Camp Randall Stadium.

The Golden Gophers have beaten the Badgers the last two seasons, and that needs to change in 2026 above all else. Wisconsin needs to return to being competitive in its rivalry games. This one tops the list.

When you look at Wisconsin’s schedule, there is a clear path to six wins. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Wisconsin were favored against Western Illinois, Eastern Michigan, Michigan State, UCLA, Rutgers, Maryland, and Purdue. All those games feel winnable on paper.

Then, there’s also a pair of games that need to be competitive with Minnesota and Iowa. The three games where the Badgers might be clear, clear underdogs are against Notre Dame, Penn State, and USC.

The question is: how consistent can Wisconsin be? Because the teams we’ve seen over the last few years have really struggled to string together good performances, while letting bad ones compound into future weeks.

While a ton of games are winnable on the schedule, most should be competitive and could very easily be a loss. Ultimately, there’s a lot on the line for Luke Fickell and the Badgers, and they absolutely must get to bowl status in 2026.

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