Josh Pate explains why he's picking Michigan to beat Iowa

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After picking against Michigan football game after game during the championship run, Josh Pate eventually said he learned his lesson.

Last year, going into Nebraska, Pate chose the Huskers over the Wolverines, but after the Wolverines prevailed, he proclaimed he wouldn't pick against Michigan until Michigan lost. Well, it's lost several since then, but stylistically, the maize and blue can be somewhat difficult to pick when other teams are zigging, and the Wolverines are zagging. And under Kyle Whittingham, the identity of the team hasn't changed, even though it's been a slow go in terms of getting the team to look the way the new head coach wants it to look.

This week, Pate previewed the Big Ten opener of Michigan vs. Iowa, and he broke down where both teams are at the moment, going in-depth on what to expect on Saturday at The Big House.

"Iowa at Michigan, Saturday, 3:30, CBS, Jenny Dell is about to watch football get taken back to the 1930s," Pate said. "The total in this game is 38.5. And that's with sunny conditions and a high in the low 70s. You're about to watch the grossest form of football in the most beautiful weather conditions imaginable.

"No. 1 defense versus No. 10 defense in the country. And if you haven't watched Iowa this year, and judging by the TV numbers, you haven't yet, allow me to inform you that not a whole lot has changed. Hank Brown, starting quarterback, under 200 passing yards every game. They've only got one wide receiver with more than six receptions and 80 yards. They are 132nd in passes of 20-plus yards. So it's Iowa being Iowa. It's Kirk Ferentz being Kirk Ferentz.

"Now is this going to be a body shot game or is it going to be a haymaker game? Most likely it's a body shot game. And if it's a body shot game, that just means it's really, really tight throughout. But Michigan in the aggregate has better athletes across the board. And there's one or two third-down conversions in the fourth quarter that they convert and Iowa can't, and that gives them a one-possession win.

"However, the other thing could happen too. Small percentage chance, but the other thing could happen. So explosivity. I guess anything could happen. It is the 2020s after all, but you've got the 111th versus 132nd explosive pass profiles going against each other here. I would say they haven't run it incredibly well. Underwood leads Michigan in rushing so far. And Iowa had 29 carries for 93 yards against Iowa State, none of them over 10. So they ran the ball OK against inferior competition, but they really played one team, and they didn't run it all that well against them. Either one can flip that stat profile though, because like I said with Washington earlier in the show, we're not far enough into the year to where you've figured out the total profile or total DNA of a team. If we're in Week 6 or 7, you kind of have. In Week 2, 3, 4, it's still kind of being formulated. So it's been put in the freezer, but it's still liquid. It hasn't totally frozen yet.

"So here's what that could look like: J.J. Buchanan, he could have a stat line where he has like three catches, but it's 85 yards and a touchdown. And that just means he either took one to the house, yards after catch, or Underwood just threw one up, and he turned a 50-50 into a 70-30, and that's the difference in the game. It's important to remember, like I said, it's still early to think we've seen all the cards. There could be a couple of things in play here. Maybe there's just a better version of Michigan, or maybe the offense is steadily improving week over week, and you just see more evidence of that. Maybe Iowa's is — maybe Tony Diaz does that. Like you don't know. I would just say we've got far more of a sample size of Kirk Ferentz being in Iowa all these years than we do this entire staff being at Michigan. So fingers crossed there.

"Iowa also last week, this gives me kind of confidence on the Michigan side. Iowa had zero sacks and zero pressures defensively versus Iowa State. So like the one hallmark that you've always come to be able to hang your hat on with Iowa is Phil Parker's defense. And I'm not saying you can't still do that. I just think going into the year, we looked at them personnel-wise. They had a little higher rate of attrition than is normal. And maybe we're seeing that. You got to remember, you don't need a ton here. Iowa's not going to pull away from you unless it's defensive scoring. So defensive scores huge here. Special teams, field position, like obviously you could write that preview in your sleep for an Iowa-Michigan game. Both of those defenses totally comfortable waiting for you to give them the game. And that affects offensive play calling. And everyone knows that that's kind of the balance that's being struck here."

Ultimately, Pate believes that Michigan will win, because he sees a team that's been playing below expectations that is rising as weeks go by.

"So let's take a look at what the model thinks," Pate said. "The FanDuel number right now is Michigan -5.5. The model pretty much agrees almost to the number. It's got Michigan -5. I think Michigan is probably a little more likely to be in improvement mode right now. It would make total sense if they won this game by seven or even won it by 10. And you look, and you say there's still work to do, but they did look better. This is the best they've looked so far. I can believe in this team. I kind of think that's the game we'll get.

"So I'll take Michigan, and I'll lay the 5.5. I think they'll win and cover."

Michigan and Iowa will face off against each other at 3:30 p.m. EDT, with the game set to be broadcast on CBS.

This article originally appeared on Wolverines Wire: Josh Pate explains why he's picking Michigan to beat Iowa

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