Michigan football's top hurdle in 2026? An incredibly difficult schedule

In an expanded Big Ten, where teams only play half of the league in conference, not all schedules are created equal.

Michigan football entered 2025 with, statistically, the easiest schedule in the league. Its nonconference foes had a .457 winning percentage the year prior, while Ohio State (the defending national champion at the time) was the only Big Ten team U-M faced that won more than seven games the year prior.

Michigan finished the season 9-4, with half of its losses coming in the four non-league opponents it faced, falling to Oklahoma (24-13) in Week 2 before losing its Cheez-It Citrus Bowl matchup to Texas (41-27) to end the year.

While the Wolverines have obstacles to overcome this season − an entirely new coaching staff, a rebuilt roster and yet another game against the Sooners − perhaps the toughest aspect of this season is simply the teams U-M will play.

CBS Sports recently came out with its own ranking for the toughest schedules among College Football Playoff hopefuls, and Michigan was near the top of the list, checking in at No. 4 behind only Texas, Oklahoma and Ohio State.

Kyle Whittingham’s squad will play the Sooners in Week 2 once again, this time in Ann Arbor. Brent Venables’ team comes off a CFP appearance in 2025 and returns Heisman trophy candidate John Mateer as its quarterback.

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But the real trouble lies in the league schedule. Michigan appears to ease into the season with six of its first seven games at home. Not only does it include Oklahoma, but also a consistent Iowa program as well as a rebuilt Penn State squad.

That’s when the schedule really ramps up. Michigan’s seventh game of the year is against defending national champion Indiana. Then after perhaps the two easiest league games of the schedule − at Rutgers and home against Michigan State − Michigan ends with a gauntlet in November.

November 14 marks the Wolverines’ first trip to Autzen Stadium to take on Oregon as a league foe, then there’s a slight reprieve when UCLA comes to town, though that’s expected to be an improved team with a talented quarterback in Nico Iamaleava. Then, of course, the season wraps up with a road game at Ohio State.

One year after avoiding four of the other top six teams in the league, Michigan is scheduled to face the three favorites to go to the CFP (IU, OSU, Oregon), two teams that have been consistent for decades (Iowa, Penn State) and an SEC team that comes off a postseason appearance (Oklahoma) in its own right.

Add it all up, and it’s why Vegas does not expect Michigan to even match its win total from a season ago. Per FanDuel, the Wolverines’ over/under on projected wins in the regular season is 8½, with the under (-148) seen as the notably more likely outcome than the over (+120).

The silver lining is that unlike last season, when Michigan didn’t have consecutive home games at any point in the season, U-M does have eight home games in total − which includes the first four of the year − and it leaves the state just once before Halloween.

Still, in a year in which Michigan could be an improved football team − based on an expected leap from the quarterback, a deep offensive line unit, a standout running back room, more talent in the wide receiver corps than in recent seasons and a defensive line that was the talk of spring ball − it might not be reflected in the final record.

Tony Garcia is the Michigan beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan Wolverines football faces a daunting opponent: the schedule