Michigan’s Playoff Math Got Wrecked By Iowa

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The Michigan Wolverines lost in heartbreaking fashion Saturday when Hank Brown threw a 16-yard touchdown pass to Reece Vander Zee on the final play, handing the Iowa Hawkeyes a 20-19 win at Michigan Stadium. Iowa improved to 4-0. Michigan Wolverines playoff odds took the hit that came with falling to 3-1, and 0-1 in the Big Ten.

The damage did not stop at the scoreboard. Michigan, ranked No. 18 going into the weekend, fell out of the AP Top 25 entirely when the new poll came out Sunday. The Wolverines did hold on at No. 24 in the Coaches Poll, but the question is now a fair one: is this team already in danger of missing the College Football Playoff?

Michigan Wolverines Playoff Odds Fell to 6.2 Percent

After the loss to Iowa, ESPN’s Football Power Index gave Michigan a 6.2% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff. The same model has the Wolverines under 1% to win the Big Ten and under 1% to win the national title.

The margin was thin before Saturday ever kicked off. Michigan opened the season with a one-point escape against the Western Michigan Broncos, 13-12, and the odds would read worse right now if that one had gone the other way.

The AP Voters Did Not Wait Around

Iowa went the other direction in the new poll, climbing to No. 14. Michigan went from ranked to unranked in a single Saturday, and it happened at home. That reaction is part of why the playoff math looks the way it does: the committee weighs quality losses, and a one-point home loss on the last snap does not read as one.

Fans were not gentle about it either. Barstool founder Dave Portnoy ripped the collapse shortly after the final whistle.

A Brutal Schedule Is Still Ahead

Losing to Iowa is probably not the last loss on this schedule. Ohio State (No. 5), Indiana (No. 6), Oregon (No. 15) and UCLA (No. 23) are all still to come, and every one of them is ranked while Michigan is not. Penn State visits Ann Arbor on Oct. 17, and Michigan State comes in on Nov. 7.

If the Wolverines drop even one more of those, the odds go from slim to gone. They need to win out and get help, and that is a lot to ask of a team that has already needed a one-point win over a MAC opponent this season. Anything short of that, and the questions stop being about the playoff and start being about the program.

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