Missouri Football Preview 2026: Can the Tigers Break Through?
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Over the last few years under head coach Eli Drinkwitz, Mizzou beat the teams it’s supposed to, almost always lost to the teams it’s supposed to, and there’s almost no middle ground.
Eight of the last nine regular-season losses were to teams that finished with nine wins or more.
All eight wins last season were against teams that finished with losing records. The last regular season win over a power conference team that finished with ten or more wins was …
Can Missouri Start Beating the Really Good Teams?
Florida in early November of 2018. Since beating a Gator team that went 10-3, the program is 0-14 in regular-season games against power conference teams that finished with ten wins or more.
And to be good in the SEC, you need those wins (more on this in the prediction section in the end).
But Drinkwitz turned this around. After failing to come up with a winning season in his first three years, he has gone 29-10 with two bowl wins, a top ten CFP finish in 2023, and the program has become relevant in an SEC world that doesn’t share the spotlight.
– 2026 Missouri Schedule Analysis
Missouri Quick Hits
- Head Coach: Eliah Drinkwitz (7th year, 46-29; 8th year overall, 58-30)
- Best Case / Worst Case: An at-large spot in the College Football Playoff/Struggle to get bowl eligible
- Key Player: Ahmad Hardy, RB Jr.
- 2025 Record: 8-5
- Biggest Question: Can the Tigers improve despite a massive turnover of players?
Missouri Key 2025 Stats
- Rushing Touchdowns: Missouri 31, Opponents 12
- 4th Quarter Scoring: Missouri 116, Opponents 47
- Fumbles: Missouri 18 (lost 6), Opponents 9 (lost 5)
Offense
The offense was great against the mediocre, struggled against the good, and now has to replace a whole slew of good parts while hoping for more from the passing game.
New offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey will keep the great ground attack working, but again, it has to be bigger and better in the huge games.
What’s Working
Forget anything about football – Ahmad Hardy is recovering. One of the nation’s best backs came over from ULM and ran for an SEC-best 1,649 yards and 16 touchdowns – he has exactly 3,000 rushing yards and 19 scores in two years.
More importantly, he’s reportedly doing okay after suffering a gunshot wound at a concert in May.
All indications are that he should be okay to play at some point this season, but until then, backup Jamal Roberts – 753 yards and six scores, and is a better receiver – is just fine as a fill-in.
The quarterback play should be even better. Beau Pribula was good – he connected on 67% of his passes – but his job was primarily to hand the ball off to Hardy. He’s now at Virginia.
In comes Austin Simmons, a terrific all-around talent who got in a little time over the last two seasons at Ole Miss. Even when Hardy is back, the attack will work around him.
Simmons has two fantastic new Tigers to throw to. The offense lost a few good receivers, but it landed two superstar transfers in Cayden Lee – Simmons’ former teammate at Ole Miss – and Caleb Goodie from Cincinnati.
Lee has over 100 career catches, and Goodie is an elite gamebreaker who averaged 18 yards per catch over his two seasons at Colorado State before becoming a Bearcat.
What Needs Work
The offensive line will be good because the Missouri offensive lines are always good. It’ll blast away for another big year for the running game, and overall, it should come together to be a force.
However, other than Cayden Green – one of the nation’s best tackles – the rest of the front five is relatively new.
The bigger issue is the depth – the team has to count on at least three freshmen to factor into the rotation.
The interceptions have to be kept to a minimum. Turnovers weren’t a major issue overall, but when the offense struggled, that’s when the picks happened.
Auburn’s defense was great – it intercepted two passes. Alabama, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma all came up with two picks, too, and all three won.
Austin Simmons threw five picks in 75 throws last year at Ole Miss.
Downfield passing. The idea was to control the game and the tempo with the ground attack, but the Tigers were 1-4 when they didn’t complete more than six yards per throw. That’s part of the reason why the coaching staff went after receivers with pop, so …
Player to Watch
Cayden Lee, WR Sr.
The Ole Miss transfer followed up a 57-catch season with a terrific 44-grab, 635-yard, three-score campaign as part of the run to the College Football Playoff semifinals. He and Caleb Goodie need the ball in their hands.
Defense
The defense was amazing, finishing eighth in the nation overall, allowing just 277 yards and fewer than 19 points per game.
Defensive coordinator Corey Batoon knows how to get his guys into the backfield. He unleashes the pass rushers from all across the line, and the pressure should continue.
However, the Tigers are cranking up a whole slew of new starters in a revamped starting 11.
What’s Working
That pass rush. Mizzou has come up with more than 30 sacks in each of the last three seasons, and last year, it averaged 2.8 per game, and was 13th in the nation in tackles for loss.
Even though the starting four up front will be a bit different, there will still be plenty of plays behind the line.
There is plenty of bulk on the inside. Jalen Marshall is a 335-pound anchor who can clog things.
Marquis Gracial is a 322-pound veteran who saw plenty of time last year. Miami transfer Donta Simpson is 300 pounds, nose tackle Jason Dowell is a 306-pounder – this group will hold up.
The Tigers lost some fantastic defensive stars – more on that in a moment – but they’ll be just fine at linebacker. Nicholas Rodriguez was second on the team with 62 tackles and led the way with seven broken up passes.
He’s a quick, tough playmaker in the middle, and in from Auburn is star transfer Robert Woodyard Jr. The 245-pounder made 67 stops with two sacks and seven tackles for loss.
What Needs Work
Those missing pieces on defense are big. Yes, it’s a cost-of-doing-business thing in the SEC, but most of the top tacklers are done, and some operated in the high-rent district.
Josiah Trotter is done from his spot in the middle of the linebacking corps after making 84 tackles with 13 tackles for loss. He’s a Tampa Bay Buccaneer.
Damon Wilson II was the team’s top pass rusher, but he’s now at Miami. Marvin Burks Jr. was one of the team’s top safeties, and now he’s at Wisconsin. Pass rushing terror Zion Young is a Baltimore Raven.
A few more takeaways would be nice. Considering how much the Tigers attack and how aggressive they are, they should’ve come up with more than 12 takeaways.
Two came against Central Arkansas, three against Mississippi State, and there weren’t multiple turnovers forced against anyone else.
The defense had problems with the offenses that completed passes. The defense was tremendous throughout the season, but Alabama, Texas A&M, and Virginia all completed more than 65% of their throws, and all three pulled off wins.
The Tigers got pressure on Ty Simpson of the Tide, but there wasn’t as much happening behind the line against the Aggies or Cavaliers.
Player to Watch
Santana Banner, SS Jr.
The secondary isn’t all transfers, but six new Tigers will play prominent roles. Banner is the most experienced holdover from last year, and he’s a good one.
The junior finished third on the team with 59 tackles, broke up three passes, and will be an even bigger statsheet filler
Keys to the Season
- Hope Ahmad Hardy is fully healed and okay, and then give him more help in the rotation.
- Get elite quarterback play from Austin Simmons.
- Start beating the SEC heavyweights.
Player Who Needs To Shine
Austin Simmons, QB Jr.
Matt Zollers is back after serving as the No. 2 man last year, and oft-traveled, one-time super-recruit Nick Evers has landed in Columbia, but the difference between Missouri being very good and potentially College Football Playoff great comes down to Simmons.
The talent is there, he has two years of experience under his belt, and now the former Ole Miss Rebel gets an offense that will do everything possible to help him become the main man.
Biggest Concern
Can all of the new pieces hit at once?
The lack of returning starting experience would be crippling for most SEC teams, but the Tigers really do have a nice overall mix of players.
The transfers have massive shoes to fill, and the depth is almost all coming in from the outside. It has to come together fast.
Biggest Game
at Ole Miss, October 17
The Tigers start the season with seven games in seven weeks, hosting Texas A&M before going to Oxford.
They get a week off after this, and then they go to Arkansas before dealing with a brutal November.
They haven’t played the Rebels since 2019, but they’re 7-1 all-time head-to-head – the lone loss coming in the 1974 season-opener. This time, there’s almost no chance of being in the SEC title chase with a loss.
Transfer Portal
It’s a very efficient and strong SEC run in the transfer portal. Like all SEC teams, Mizzou lost a few high-end stars, a slew of backups looking for time elsewhere, and overall, everything turned out to be a net positive.
There needed to be more talent coming in, and the Tigers loaded up with players and prospects to instantly fill in the gaps.
Best Signing
Elijah Dotson, S (Michigan)
There were higher-profile transfers coming in Missouri’s transfer class, but Dotson was an under-the-radar signing who should pay off big.
The good get for Michigan made 11 tackles with a pick as a freshman, and now he’ll get to show off his speed and range to make things happen.
Biggest Loss
Damon Wilson II, EDGE (Miami)
There’s a case to be made that he was the top player in the transfer portal.
He was a huge get for Missouri after the former star Georgia recruit started to find his way, with three sacks as a sophomore.
He was terrific for the Tigers, and now the great pro prospect will try to be the next Miami superstar pass rusher.
Other Names to Know
- Robert Woodyard Jr., LB (Auburn)
- Jahlil Florence, CB (Oregon)
- JaDon Blair, S (Notre Dame)
CFN Season Prediction
To go back to the Must Beat Great Teams thing, Missouri should rip through most of its schedule full of okay teams.
Troy is the only game in the first five against a team that went bowling last year.
However, at Mississippi State, at Kansas, and Florida won’t be easy. And about those games against the elite, oh, they’re coming in a rough second half of the campaign.
CFN Prediction: 7-5
There’s no Alabama, LSU, or Tennessee to face, but Texas A&M, at Ole Miss, Texas, at Georgia – throw in a date at Arkansas, and that’s Mizzou’s five-game stretch before closing at home against Kentucky and Oklahoma.
Texas A&M, at Ole Miss, Texas, at Georgia, Oklahoma.
Can Missouri win at least three of those, and take down Florida, and not lose at Kansas, and beat improved Mississippi State and Arkansas teams on the road?
There’s too much turnover to expect Missouri to get through so many great teams to take that big step forward.
Related: SEC Football Win Totals 2026: Spring Predictions for All 16 Teams
This story was originally published by College Football News on Jun 17, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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