NC State vs. UVA: What are we watching for?

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What are the early indicators, for better or worse? These are a few.

1.) Can NC State’s defense be more consistently disruptive on passing plays? State’s defense was really, really bad on passing downs last season—its havoc rate stunk, it was bad on a per-play basis, from an EPA basis, from pretty much every basis. Whole thing was ugly.

Virginia doesn’t have a skill position group that’s scaring anybody, and as long as Beau Pribula is the starting quarterback—which I don’t think will last long—then the ceiling there is pretty low. But if he has four seconds to make a decision every time he drops back, he’s going to look like Joe Montana. The battle between UVA’s offensive line and State’s defense might be the only thing that really matters in this game.

2.) Is CJ Bailey ready to be the kind of quarterback who can carry a team to a big win? The pressure is on now. Everybody knows what kind of player Bailey is, and what he can be—and he’s being paid to deliver. Is he ready to handle it? He’s working with a brand new bunch of receivers, and he is going to have to improvise for State to have success offensively. There will be breakdowns and misunderstandings and he will need to fix a few things in the moment to keep the ball moving. It’s Week 0 and maybe the biggest game of his career so far.

3.) How good are Harvey Dyson and Popo Aguirre? NC State is counting on both to be important; I think it’s fair to say both are high-floor guys, but can they be good enough to make the defense substantially better? Aguirre has the most work ahead of him on that one, and if he ends up a clear difference-maker, that changes the expectations for the defense. The margins for success on this defense are extremely small—if either of these guys has an off day, if either gets hurt, it’s extremely bad news.

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