NCAAF Picks, Predictions: 3 Team Totals to Bet for College Football Week 7
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I don’t recommend skipping out on the college football action any weekend, but this weekend’s slate is absolute fire.
There are must-see games all throughout Saturday. It’s a good day to spend a minimum of 12 hours on the sofa with multiple screens ready to go.
We had a third straight 2-1 week for the team totals selections last week. The record for the picks season to date is now 11-7. Time to look for a 3-0 sweep.
Let’s dive into our NCAAF picks and college football predictions for this week’s team totals.
Notre Dame vs BYU Pick
We have a massive game in Provo on Saturday evening. The Fighting Irish head west to take on Kalani Sitake and the unbeaten BYU Cougars. BYU has one of the best home-field advantages in college football, and I expect a great environment here.
I rate Notre Dame’s stop unit as the best in the country. The Fighting Irish have an elite secondary and a defensive front that’s turning into another dominant unit.
On the other side, BYU is a very run-heavy team, but it will be without star running back LJ Martin due to an injury. That puts a lot more on quarterback Bear Bachmeier.
Bachmeier is a good quarterback, but he isn’t a great passer. Instead, he’s a really tough runner who will battle for yards. I think he’ll find it far tougher to get those yards against this Fighting Irish front, though.
Notre Dame ranks first nationally in Rushing Success Rate allowed, third in yards per carry allowed and second in explosiveness allowed.
BYU will have to consistently move the ball down the field here, and I don’t think it’ll have much success.
Notre Dame and BYU both rank in the bottom 10 in plays per game. There shouldn’t be many possessions in this contest.
Notre Dame should have some success on offense, but it’s only 125th in rushing explosiveness this year. The Fighting Irish will control the ball for quite a bit of time in this game.
We saw how BYU looked offensively against an elite defense twice last year against Texas Tech. The Cougars scored a total of 14 points in those two matchups against the Red Raiders. I think they’ll be held down again on Saturday night.
Pick: BYU Team Total Under 17.5
Confidence Rating: B+
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Utah vs Colorado Pick
The Utah Utes travel to Boulder to take on the Colorado Buffaloes in a late-night Big 12 contest on Saturday.
Quarterback Isaac Wilson gets the start for Colorado against his old team. Wilson hasn’t looked good at all in the couple of games he has been under center for Colorado with one big-time throw and six turnover-worthy plays, per PFF.
He has a very low PFF rating of just 59.4. He’ll now take on the best secondary he has seen so far this season.
Utah has been running the football a bunch on offense, ranking 27th in Rushing Success Rate on offense. Colorado’s defense, meanwhile, sits 112th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
The Utes are likely to methodically move the ball down the field against Colorado and control the time of possession in this game.
Colorado has been awful in the red zone on offense. The Buffaloes rank 134th out of 138 teams in the country in Points Per Opportunity. They have routinely gotten into field-goal range and then turned the ball over or committed penalties to back themselves out of scoring position.
On the other side, Utah boasts a top-10 red-zone defense nationally. The Utes haven’t been giving opponents free first downs with penalties. This defense is disciplined, and it should make things very tough on Colorado.
Pick: Colorado Team Total Under 16.5
Confidence Rating: B+
New Mexico vs Hawaii Pick
Jason Eck is an absolute beast of a college football coach. The job he has done with this New Mexico football program is superb.
It all starts with an elite defense led by Jaxton Eck at linebacker. While he has been one of the best defenders in the nation, he won’t play in this game due to a shoulder injury.
New Mexico leads the nation in Success Rate allowed, and the Lobos are allowing only 11.5 points per game this season.
Hawaii doesn’t have the high-powered offense we’re used to seeing out of this program. Micah Alejado is a talented quarterback, but he’s up against it right now.
The offensive line is very poor, and Alejado has taken all kinds of hard hits every single game. He has left nearly every game for at least for a bit because of minor injuries.
Alejado is also lacking a star receiver to look for on the outside.
Hawaii ranks 120th in passing downs PPA, 114th in passing explosiveness and 125th in Offensive Line Yards. I certainly wouldn’t expect the Bowls to have much luck running the ball against this Lobos stop unit.
New Mexico, meanwhile, plays at the 135th-quickest pace of play nationally. It’s going to be happy to run the football and waste a bunch of clock here.
Hawaii was held to six points at home by UNLV and put up only 10 points against Wyoming. I expect another low offensive output from the Bows here.
Pick: Hawaii Team Total Under 14.5
Confidence Rating: B
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