Notre Dame vs Michigan State Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

The Michigan State Spartans (2-0) go to South Bend Saturday night for their first-ranked matchup of the season. The #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-0) are coming off 28 and 52-point wins to start the season, while Michigan State won by 10 and 28. Notre Dame and Michigan State have not met since 2017 despite this being the 80th all-time meeting between the two. Both squads enter undefeated, but oddsmakers have Notre Dame as almost 30-point favorites.

Notre Dame enters Week 3 ranked #3 in the country. CJ Carr is coming off a career-high four passing touchdowns and Nolan James Jr. added two scores on the ground. The Irish kicked off Week 2 with a 24-yard fumble return for a touchdown on the second play of the game and extended the lead to 21-0 in the first quarter before completing the shutout on Rice, 52-0.

Michigan State will make its first road start of the season and it won't be easy by any means. This is likely the largest underdog spread the Spartans will face all season. MSU is set at a 29.5 point underdog and that comes after being -10 and -17.5 point favorites in the last two games. The Spartans are pounding the rock this year behind RB Cam Edwards' three touchdowns, plus 98 and 152-yard efforts. Michigan State ranks 40th in rushing yards per game (204.0) and that will be put to the test at Notre Dame. The Irish hold opponents to 65.5 rushing yards per game, ranking 14th.

Let’s dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.

Game Details and How to Watch Notre Dame vs Michigan State

• Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM Eastern
• Site: Notre Dame Stadium
• City: South Bend, IN
• TV/Streaming: NBC | Peacock

Game Odds for Notre Dame vs Michigan State

The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-4500), Michigan State (+1700)
• Spread: Notre Dame -29.5 (-110)
• Total: 52.5 points

Michigan State Spartans

Head Coach: Pat Fitzgerald
2026 Record: 2-0 (0-0)
Offensive Points Per Game: 32.5 (T-63rd)
Defensive Points Per Game: 13.5 (T-24th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 112th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 30th

The Michigan State Spartans Offense:

Michigan State has found success on the ground with 150 and 247 yards in each of their first two games. Cam Edwards had 98 and 152 rushing yards in those two games and is the Spartans' biggest playmaker on the offense after transferring from Western Illinois and putting up over 3,200 total yards with UConn. Michigan State has turned to Alessio Miliojevic at quarterback after starting the final four regular season games for Michigan State last year (1-3 record, 7 TDs, 2 INTs).

Michigan State Player to Watch on Offense: QB Alessio Miliojevic

Alessio Miliojevic is in for a day. The Notre Dame defense ranks 13th in total yards allowed (206 ypg) and 23rd in passing yards allowed per game (140.5). Miliojevic has completed 70-percent of his passes so far for 417 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. He's been sacked five times through two games and this Notre Dame pash rush has been lacking with three sacks through two games. If Miliojevic can stay upright, there's a chance the Spartans go Over their team total, which is 10.5 points!

The Michigan State Spartans Defense:

MSU's defense held Toledo to 1-of-8 on third downs and 77 rushing yards on 20 carries (3.9 ypc). Toledo only had the ball for 16:44 in the game. Six of 10 drives for Toledo resulted in a punt or turnover, while another featured a missed field goal. Against Eastern Michigan, the Spartans forced three punts to start the game and six punts on nine drives. Michigan State held Eastern Michigan to 3.9 yards per rush and 4.5 yards per pass.

Michigan State Player to Watch on Defense: DB Devin Vaught

Devin Vaught is a Maine transfer that recorded 60 tackles, three interceptions, one 76-yard touchdown against Georgia Southern, and five pass deflections last season. Through two games with the Spartans, Vaught is tied for the team-lead at 13 tackles and added one tackle for a loss against Eastern Michigan. Vaught will have to guard the backend of the defense versus CJ Carr and company, which will be the best passing attack MSU will face until November or perhaps all season.

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Head Coach: Marcus Freeman
2026 Record: 2-0
Offensive Points Per Game: 46.5 (T-10th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 6.5 (T-4th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 93rd
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 50th

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish Offense:

The offensive line has been a bunch of maulers. The Irish have only allowed one sack through two games allowing CJ Carr to throw for six touchdowns and no interceptions (3rd in TO ratio, +5). The Irish have establish a running back committee and it's working out well with 204 total yards and five touchdowns between Aneyas Williams and Nolan James Jr. Notre Dame's scored 41 and 52 points through two games and put up 350 and 478 total yards.

Notre Dame Player to Watch on Offense: QB CJ Carr

CJ Carr has been on cruise control over the past six quarters. Carr is coming off a career-high of four passing touchdowns and went 16-of-20 for 253 yards against Rice. Carr had a 24-6 TD to interception ratio last year, which is 30-6 now. Notre Dame's defense is talented enough that Carr won't have to come off cruise control until October. This should be another 200-yard and two-plus touchdown performance from Carr.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish Defense:

The Irish defense held Rice to seven first downs and held them to 2-of-12 on third downs. Notre Dame's rush defense has been awesome through two games. The Irish forced four turnovers against Rice and held the Owls to 64 yards on the ground. Notre Dame gave up 67 rushing yards to Wisconsin and forced two turnovers.

Notre Dame Player to Watch on Defense: CB DJ McKinney

DJ McKinney is a Colorado and Oklahoma State transfer that has 136 career tackles and five interceptions. He opened his Notre Dame career with a 55-yard pick-six against Wisconsin, then had one tackle against Rice in a quiet afternoon versus a triple-option run-first offense. Along with Leonard Moore, Notre Dame might have the best CB tandem in the country.

Notre Dame and Michigan State Team Stats, Betting Trends

• Notre Dame is 2-0 ATS
• Michigan State is 1-0-1 ATS
• Notre Dame and Michigan State are 1-1 on the total
• The Spartans were 5-0 ATS as a road underdog in 2025 and 9-4-2 ATS since 2023
• The Fighting Irish are 13-6-1 ATS in the last 20 as a home favorite
• Michigan State is 13-12 to the Over in the last 25 games as an underdog
• Michigan State is 8-7 to the Over in the last 15 games as a road underdog
• Notre Dame is 8-7 to the Under since 2024 as a home favorite

Rotoworld Best Bets

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) leans the Under 52.5 between Notre Dame and Michigan State:

"The Under snuck through last week for Notre Dame in a 52-0 shutout win against Rice. While this week won't be as dramatic of a blowout, the margin should be wide enough that Notre Dame doesn't go 100-percent in the fourth quarter. The Irish continue to establish its ground game to take the pressure off CJ Carr and it's working out alright. Aneyas Williams scored twice versus Wisconsin and Nolan James Jr. twice against Rice. Michigan State has relied on the ground game too. The Spartans have ran for 150 and 258 yards in their first two games. Neither pass defense has been tested yet and I don't see the Spartans having much success through the air at Notre Dame. I lean the Under 52.5. Notre Dame 37, Michigan State 13."

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