Oklahoma football game-by-game predictions from ESPN

Oklahoma football game-by-game predictions from ESPN

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Oklahoma football game-by-game predictions from ESPN

The 2026 college football season is a little over six weeks away, which means we’re getting into the throes of prediction season. Oklahoma is a power in the SEC. After a 10-2 season and a playoff appearance, Oklahoma has high expectations for 2026. The Sooners have a team ready to make another College Football Playoff run, but they also have one of the tougher schedules in college football.

Thus is life in the SEC.

Games against Michigan, Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M will tell the tale of OU’s season. If they want to make the playoff, they’ll have to finish above .500 in those five games and win the other seven. It’s unlikely a 9-3 Oklahoma would make the playoff, even with their difficult schedule.

So the mission. Just win. Win, and everything takes care of itself.

Prior to each season, and after each game, we take a look at how the ESPN matchup predictor sees the Oklahoma Sooners schedule playing out. The matchup predictor is a projection relative to ESPN’s Football Power Index, which takes into account recent success, recruiting, prowess, and strength of schedule.

Here’s how ESPN Analytics projects the Oklahoma Sooners to fare in 2026.

Sept. 4 vs. UTEP Miners

Oklahoma coach Brent Venables runs onto the field before a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the UTEP Miners at Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Sept. 3, 2022. Oklahoma won 45-13.

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 99%

Projected running record: 1-0

Sept. 12 at Michigan Wolverines

Sep 6, 2025; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Owen Heinecke (38) applies pressure on Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) during the second half at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Michigan

Sooners Win Probability: 47.8%

Projected running record: 1-1

Sept. 19 vs. New Mexico Lobos

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) looks to make a pass in the second half against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Gaylord Family OK Memorial Stadium.

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 94.9%

Projected running record: 2-1

Sept. 26 at Georgia Bulldogs

Jan 1, 2018; Pasadena, CA, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws a pass against the Georgia Bulldogs in the 2018 Rose Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at Rose Bowl Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Georgia

Sooners Win Probability: 23%

Projected running record: 2-2

Oct. 10 vs. Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl)

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) drops back to pass during the Red River Rivalry college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the University of Texas (UT) Longhorns at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023. Oklahoma won 34-30.

Predicted Winner: Texas

Sooners Win Probability: 24.4%

Projected running record: 2-3

Oct. 17 vs. Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky Wildcats quarterback Kenny Minchey (3) throws the ball during the Kentucky Football spring game on April 18, 2026; Lexington, KY, USA; at Kroger Field.

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 86.3%

Projected running record: 3-3

Oct. 24 at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Sep 13, 2025; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs tight end Emeka Iloh (84) and head coach Jeff Lebby react during the second half against the Alcorn State Braves at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 80.2%

Projected running record: 4-3

Oct. 31 vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

Oct 18, 2025; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; Oklahoma Sooners running back Tory Blaylock (6) rushes against the South Carolina Gamecocks in the first quarter at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 75.1%

Projected running record: 5-3

Nov. 7 at Florida Gators

Jan 8, 2008; Miami, FL, USA; Florida Gators quarterback Tim Tebow (15) throws a pass to wide receiver Louis Murphy (front) for a touchdown during the second quarter of the 2009 BCS Championship Game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Dolphin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 54.6%

Projected running record: 6-3

Nov. 14 vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Oklahoma Sooners running back Xavier Robinson (24) runs for a touchdown during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Ole Miss Rebels at Gaylord Family Ð Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025. Ole Miss won 34-26.

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 62.3%

Projected running record: 7-3

Nov. 21 vs. Texas A&M Aggies

Nov 11, 2005; Norman, OK USA; Oklahoma Sooners safety (1) Reggie Smith reacts after making a play the during the 1st quarter against the Texas A&M Aggies at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports Copyright (c) 2005 Tim Heitman

Predicted Winner: Texas A&M

Sooners Win Probability: 49.9%

Projected running record: 7-4

Nov. 28 at Missouri Tigers

Nov 22, 2025; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Kendal Daniels (5) reacts during the game against the Missouri Tigers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 60.3%

Projected running record: 8-4

Sooners miss College Football Playoff?

For what it’s worth, the ESPN matchup predictor had the Sooners going 5-7 prior to the 2025 season and far exceeded those expectations. If they break the computer once again, the Sooners could be looking at a 10, 11, or 12-win regular season.

The Oklahoma Sooners won 10 games last year with an offense that ranked in the bottom third of the country in points per game, had a rushing attack that tied with Oklahoma State, which tells you how ineffective it was. But they still won 10 games. And this year’s team is better. The offense is better and the defense has a case for being better, especially in the secondary.

While some may doubt Oklahoma as a legit national title contender, they’re built on both sides of the ball to make a run for national championship No. 8.

Contact/Follow us @SoonersWire on X (formerly known as Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oklahoma news, notes, and opinions.You can also follow John on X @john9williams.

This article originally appeared on Sooners Wire: Oklahoma football game-by-game predictions from ESPN

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