Penn State Football: 5 Bold Predictions for the Nittany Lions in 2026

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After a tumultuous 54-day coaching search late last fall, Matt Campbell was the man selected to pick up the pieces at Penn State. Now, he’s entering his first season as the Nittany Lions’ head coach, and expectations are high that he and his team can hit the ground running in Happy Valley.

Penn State wasted little time in the transfer portal. With Campbell came offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser and offensive line coach Ryan Clanton, as well as a slew of former Cyclones, like quarterback Rocco Becht, running back Carson Hansen and numerous linemen on both sides of the ball.

The schedule feels manageable. The team is full of proven Power 4 players. For a long time, Campbell was known for doing more with less. Now he’s got to prove he can do more with more and elevate Penn State back into the upper echelon of the Big Ten.

Here are five bold predictions for Penn State in 2026.

5 Bold Predictions for Penn State in the 2026 College Football Season

Penn State coach Matt Campbell looks on from the field during the Penn State Blue-White Spring game at Beaver Stadium on April 25, 2026, in University Park, Pennsylvania.Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State Will Not Make the 12-Team Playoff

Penn State has a fantastic schedule this season. Let’s start there.

The Nittany Lions are currently slated to play only three ranked teams during the entire 2026 regular season. Penn State’s most notable games include a home tilt against USC and road games at Michigan and Washington. You can’t ask for much more if you’re Matt Campbell in Year 1.

But even with that workable schedule and a bevy of players with Power 4 experience, the step up in competition might prove to be too much for this year’s Penn State team. Quarterback Rocco Becht was a solid Big 12 starter. How does he fare in a new league? The same could be said for other former Cyclones. How will they adjust to playing against better players?

Penn State should be good. Maybe even nine-win good. But the step up in competition, coupled with a lack of signature wins, could spell trouble for the Nittany Lions’ CFP hopes.

Penn State quarterback Rocco Becht throws a pass during the Penn State Blue-White Spring game at Beaver Stadium on Apr. 25, 2026, in University Park, Pennsylvania. © Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Quarterback Rocco Becht Will Throw for Over 3,000 Yards

The 2025 college football season was an injury-plagued campaign for Becht. He struggled with injuries to both shoulders and had to undergo offseason surgery. Those injuries likely played a big part in his drop in production last season.

If Becht can stay healthy, there’s reason for optimism that he can throw for more than 3,000 yards, much like he did during the 2023 and 2024 seasons. He already has an established connection with running back Carson Hansen and key wide receiver Chase Sowell. He’ll have plenty of time to mesh with new wideouts. And he’ll have worked with OC Taylor Mouser for an extended period of time, too.

Couple that established connection with a relatively light schedule, and this season has all the makings of a good-to-very-good season for Becht. Becht will likely light up subpar defenses like Purdue, Rutgers and Maryland down the stretch of the regular season. If all goes to plan, he should eclipse the 3,000-yard mark during the 2026 campaign.

Running Back Carson Hansen Will Not Eclipse the 1,000-Yard Mark in 2026

A lot went wrong for Penn State over the last two seasons. James Franklin lost numerous big games. Drew Allar failed to deliver in critical moments. And last season, things came to a screeching halt after a disastrous loss to UCLA.

One thing that was a net positive for Penn State over the last two seasons was the rushing attack. The one-two combo of Kaytron Allen and Nic Singleton out of the backfield was one of the best duos in college football. Last season alone, the pair combined for over 1,800 rushing yards and 28 touchdowns.

Both Allen and Singleton are gone, and Hansen is expected to take the bulk of the carries this season. After falling below the 1,000-yard threshold in 2025, Hansen will narrowly miss out on that mark again in 2026.

The Penn State Defense Will Improve Under New Coordinator D’Anton Lynn

During the 2025 season, Penn State’s defense struggled to get off the field consistently, especially down the stretch. Despite featuring at least a few future NFL players, that unit allowed 24 points or more on six occasions. With the offense in such disarray, that number was never going to be good enough.

This season, however, D’Anton Lynn comes over from USC and should give this unit a much-needed spark. He did some excellent work transforming a downright terrible Trojans’ defensive unit into one that allowed fewer than 24 points per game during the 2025 season.

In 2026, the Nittany Lions play a watered-down schedule by Big Ten standards. If Lynn can hit the ground running with plenty of Iowa State holdovers, this unit should take a nice step forward this season and keep Penn State in plenty of ballgames.

Matt Campbell Will Be Judged Against James Franklin in Late-Game Situations

Nothing defines the James Franklin era at Penn State quite like the criticism surrounding his management in late-game situations. For one reason or another, Franklin struggled to get it right, despite being an excellent head coach.

Franklin struggled to call timeouts at the right time. He mismanaged the clock in close spots. His late-game struggles and losses in big games even earned him the moniker “Big Game James” in some college football circles.

This season, and henceforth at Penn State, Campbell will constantly be compared to his predecessor, for better or worse. Campbell never struggled in late-game situations at Iowa State as Franklin did in Happy Valley. If he hopes to keep the goodwill he’s built up thus far, he'd better find a way to ensure that doesn’t change.

This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Aug 15, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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