Prediction: Florida State Football to Finish Season 8-4
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The 2026 Florida State football schedule is
challenging to say the least, with four teams currently ranked in the Top 25
Coaches Poll, plus another that won nine games last season.
The Seminoles will be talented on both sides of the
ball, and according to all reports, are buying in to the winning culture and
mindset reset. That has been the hallmark of Florida State football for decades
before Mike Norvell became head coach.
Here is a look at that brutal schedule and how the
Seminoles will navigate it this season.
Week
1: New Mexico State, 8/29
The Seminoles are batting .500 in season openers since
the 2020 season, with three wins and three losses. The Aggies are 26-38 over
the past five seasons and will be outmatched in this one. This is one of those
games Florida State should win. Prediction: Win.
Week
2: No. 20 SMU, 9/7
This year’s version of the Mustangs is in the upper
tier of the ACC, along with Miami. Under coach Rhett Lashlee, SMU has won 70
percent of their games (38-16). The Mustangs return their starting quarterback,
Kevin Jennings, and add some talent at key positions via the transfer portal.
Prediction: Loss.
Week 4:
at No. 11 Alabama, 9/19
After a bye week, the Seminoles take the college
football equivalent of a death march when they travel to Tuscaloosa to take on Alabama.
The lowest-ranked Crimson Tide team to start the season since 2008, Alabama has
lost only two home games since the 2023 season. The Crimson Tide defense will
be like a stone wall in this one. Prediction: Loss.
Week
5: Central Arkansas, 9/26
An FCS opponent, the Bears are probably still
suffering from shell-shock after losing their opener last season to Missouri
61-6. This is a game that Florida State needs to keep their foot on the gas and
dominate on both sides of the ball. Prediction: Win.
Week
6: Virginia, 10/3
The ACC runner-up last season, the Cavaliers set a
school record with 11 wins. Virginia returns 15 starters from last year’s squad,
including an offensive line that boasts 165 career starts. But they start a
quarterback whose most productive season to date was last year, when he threw
almost as many interceptions (9) as he did TD passes (11). The Cavaliers also
lost a 1,000-yard rusher who scored 14 rushing touchdowns. Prediction: Win
Week
7: at Louisville, 10/9
The Cardinals narrowly missed being ranked in the Top
25 Coaches Poll. Going into his fourth season at his alma mater, head coach Jeff
Brohm has led Louisville to 28 wins and has won 70 percent of his games. They
will start yet another transfer at quarterback, inexperienced Lincoln Kienholz
from Ohio State. Louisville does return dynamic running back Isaac Brown, who
averaged 8.75 yards per carry. Prediction: Loss.
Week
8: at No. 7 Miami, 10/17
The Hurricanes are the national runner-up, after
losing at home in the national championship game to the Indiana Hoosiers. Miami
is loaded on offense this season, returning receiver Malachi Toney and running
back Mark Fletcher. Coach Mario Cristobal raided the transfer portal to bring Duke
quarterback Darian Mensah and his receiver, Cooper Barkate, to Miami. This one
will not be close. Prediction: Loss.
Week 10:
No. 23 Clemson, 10/31
In Norvell’s tenure, the Seminoles have beaten Clemson
just one time. Last season was a very un-Clemson like season for the Tigers,
finishing 7-6. Then they lost nine players to the NFL Draft. This season, coach
Dabo Swinney will start a young, inexperienced signal-caller behind center. On
Halloween night, the war chant will be loud and proud at Doak Campbell Stadium,
and will be a force multiplier. Prediction: Win.
Week
11: at Boston College, 11/7
The Seminoles have won five of the last six meetings
against Boston College. Make it six of the last seven. Prediction: Win.
Week
12: at Pitt, 11/13
This game last season was one of those four close
losses that have been chronicled. The Panthers return quarterback Mason Heintschel,
who will operate behind an offensive line that has 127 starts to its credit.
But it will not be enough as the Seminoles figure out how to beat Pitt.
Prediction: Win.
Week
13: NC State, 11/21
In the Norvell era, the Seminoles have not beaten the
Wolfpack. NC State does return dynamic quarterback CJ Bailey, who threw for
3,105 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. They lose running back
Hollywood Smothers, who transferred to Texas. The Seminoles get the job done at
home. Prediction: Win.
Week
14: Florida, 11/27
In one of the most hotly-contested, heated rivalries
in college football, the Florida Gators have won five of the last seven
meetings, including the last two matchups. Florida will have a new coach and a
new quarterback. On the day after Thanksgiving, also known as Black Friday,
Seminoles fans will be feasting on left over turkey, with a side of fried
alligator. Prediction: Win.
Florida State improves by three in the win column over
last season to finish 8-4, and post their first winning season since 2023.
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