Projecting Texas A&M's 2026 season using ESPN FPI after Week 3 loss

Texas A&M dropped at least a dozen spots in the US LBM Coaches Poll (No. 20) and the AP Top 25 (No. 23) after falling to Kentucky, 31-21, inside a packed Kyle Field on Saturday afternoon. This is by far the worst loss under third-year coach Mike Elko, while starting quarterback Marcel Reed had his worst game in SEC play, which is a bad sign heading into the meat of the schedule.

Saturday's loss clearly showed the Aggies aren't as good as we thought, especially in the trenches, allowing 18 pressures, while the pass rush was virtually nonexistent outside of senior defensive end T.J. Searcy, one of the few bright spots on defense. Senior cornerback Dezz Ricks has also impressed, as opposing quarterbacks have barely targeted him, and he has allowed just one reception through three games.

Under first-year OC Holmon Wiggins, Marcel Reed looked somewhat comfortable in the first two games, but those blaming Wiggins's playcalling on Saturday were wrong: wide receivers were open, and the run game, when used, was working. Reed will likely continue as the starter, unless things get even worse, starting with LSU in Baton Rouge on Saturday night.

After LSU, the Aggies will host Arkansas before facing Missouri on the road, then The Citadel, Alabama, and South Carolina on the road; Tennessee at home; Oklahoma in Norman; and Texas at home. After losing to Kentucky, Texas A&M is barely favored to finish the season with seven wins.

Here's how ESPN FPI predicts Texas A&M will finish the 2026 season before facing LSU on the road.

• Texas A&M (36.8%) at LSU (63.2%)
• Texas A&M (93.8%) vs. Arkansas (6.2%)
• Texas A&M (65.2%) at Missouri (34.8%)
• Texas A&M (99.1%) vs. The Citadel (1.0%)
• Texas A&M (29.8%) at Alabama (70.2%)
• Texas A&M (63.0%) at South Carolina (37.0%)
• Texas A&M (56.9%) vs. Tennessee (43.1%)
• Texas A&M (47.5%) at Oklahoma (52.5%)
• Texas A&M (26.7%) vs. Texas (73.3%)

Texas A&M is predicted to finish 7-5, as I stated above, which isn't surprising given the Aggies' poor performance, especially on defense, allowing over 150 rushing yards and 400-plus total yards. Texas A&M will face LSU on Saturday night at 6:30 p.m., and the game will air on ABC.

Contact/Follow us @AggiesWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Texas A&M news, notes and opinions. Follow Cameron on X: @CameronOhnysty.

This article originally appeared on Aggies Wire: Projecting Texas A&M's 2026 season using ESPN FPI after Week 3 loss