Six bold possibilities for 2026 college football season that aren't crazy
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Nebraska coach Matt Rhule recently let us in on a little secret.
"College football is as great as it's ever been," Rhule said.
Say it louder, coach, so your persistently whining peers might hear it.
College football coaches love to complain. They grumble about all the things "broken" in their sport, even as they break, ignore or bemoan existing rules. The sky-is-falling noise extends to athletic directors, chancellors and university presidents. It's even found a home in Washington D.C.
And yet just last season, the forever-a-doormat Indiana Hoosierswon the national championship, and a team with an ex-Division II quarterback reached the playoff semifinals. Pretty cool, right?
Sure, the playoff's first round fizzled, but how about Fernando Mendoza's gutsy fourth-down run in the national championship, or the white-knuckle Miami-Mississippi finish in the semifinals, or the Georgia-Ole Miss thriller of a Sugar Bowl? Pure theater. Let's have a another dose.
Before kickoff arrives, let me serve six bold (but not crazy) possibilities for the 2026 season.
1. Mike Norvell of Florida State will be the first coach fired
Why this counts as a bold take: The hot seat is crowded. It includes Luke Fickell (Wisconsin), Dave Aranda (Baylor), Mike Locksley (Maryland), Bill Belichick (North Carolina) and Shane Beamer (South Carolina).
Why this take isn’t crazy: Florida State has seven wins combined the past two seasons after going 13-1 in 2023. That’s beyond hot seat terrain. That’s the scalding zone, and we learned FSU sniffed around Lane Kiffin last year. It couldn’t lure in Kiffin, but it’ll have to face the buyout music if Norvell can’t reinject momentum.
Norvell’s future will be in the hands of another transfer-laden roster, including his fourth starting quarterback in as many years.
Unlike last fall, when multiple premier jobs opened, Florida State could be one of the hottest openings this year. Plant your flag first?
College football firings come sooner than ever. The coaching carousel started spinning in September last year.
Four of Florida State’s first seven opponents are ranked in the preseason US LBM Coaches Poll. That schedule positions Norvell for a swift firing.
Norvell told The Athletic he doesn’t “fear failure.” Why should he fear failure? If FSU fires Norvell, he’ll be owed more than $45 million in failure money. Nothing to fear. Better question: Do opponents have any reason to fear the spear? FSU starves for national relevance, making the fearless man in Tallahassee the top candidate to be the first coach fired.
2. The Big Ten will produce a fourth consecutive national champion
Why this counts as a bold take: Despite the Big Ten’s recent playoff dominance, the SEC has the most ranked teams of any conference, and Notre Dame is also a top championship contender.
Why this take isn’t crazy: Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana are frontline national title candidates. Oregon and Indiana are stacked on defense, and they'll start talented veteran quarterbacks. Ohio State's offense features not one, not two, but three Heisman-capable performers among the trio of Julian Sayin, Jeremiah Smith and Bo Jackson.
In the SEC, the new rally cry is: Our worst teams are better than your worst teams.
Maybe, but national championships are awarded to the best teams, and the Big Ten has the deepest collection of top teams.
3. Georgia will be the SEC’s last team standing in the playoff
Why this counts as a bold take: Texas’ roster is second to none in the SEC. Also, Georgia hasn’t won a playoff game since 2022. The playoff bracket could feature several SEC teams, leaving no shortage of options for last team standing.
Why this take isn’t crazy: Among the SEC’s playoff contenders, Georgia enjoys the easiest schedule. That gives the Bulldogs a good shot at winning the conference and securing a first-round bye.
No SEC team returns more starters than Georgia. That includes several third-year players who were blue-chippers as part of Kirby Smart’s No. 1-ranked signing class in 2024.
Oh, and let’s not forget quarterback Gunner Stockton. He’s Mr. Clutch in the fourth quarter. That’s a recipe to be the last team standing from the SEC.
4. A Big Ten quarterback will win the Heisman Trophy
Why this counts as a bold take: Heismans are rare for Big Ten quarterbacks. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza became the first Big Ten quarterback to win the award since Ohio State’s Troy Smith in 2006.
Why this take isn’t crazy: Close your eyes and picture Big Ten football. What do you see? Cornfed offensive linemen, bruising tailbacks, 4 yards and a cloud of dust? That imagery needs refreshed. The past few years, Big Ten quarterback play transformed from an anchor to an asset. Multiple stars return, including Sayin (Ohio State), Dante Moore (Oregon), Jayden Maiava (Southern Cal) and Demond Williams Jr. (Washington). Indiana reloaded with one of the Big 12’s best, TCU transfer Josh Hoover.
Even as Arch Manning and CJ Carr gobble up preseason Heisman buzz, the best collection of quarterbacks resides in the Big Ten, and the conference’s media partners will shamelessly power the hype machine for one of those quarterbacks to succeed Mendoza as Heisman winner.
5. No team will enter the playoff undefeated
Why this counts as a bold take: In the 10 years of the four-team playoff, plus the two years of the 12-team playoff, only once did the playoff bracket include no undefeated teams. That happened in 2017, when the bracket had four one-loss teams.
Why this take isn’t crazy: The SEC made its schedule tougher by tacking on a ninth conference game. That narrows the avenue to an undefeated season. The Big Ten's top tier is becoming more and more crowded. Ohio State’s schedule is stacked, starting in Week 2 against Texas. The Buckeyes will play Indiana and Oregon, too, both of the Big Ten’s other undefeated contenders.
Big 12 favorite Texas Tech has only one scheduled opponent ranked in the preseason coaches poll. That’s No. 24 Houston. So, undefeated potential for the Red Raiders? Perhaps, but how steady will Texas Tech starting quarterback Will Hammond be? He was supposed to be Brendan Sorsby's backup.
Miami and Notre Dame are candidates to enter the playoff undefeated, but they play each other in November, ensuring a loss for at least one of them, although the winner of that game wouldn’t be a bad bet to go undefeated.
Six teams in the preseason top 25 received multiple first-place votes. That reflects college football’s growing parity and its shrinking path to being undefeated when the playoff arrives.
6. A three-loss team will make the playoff
Why this counts as a bold take: The selection committee has never selected a 9-3 team.
Why this take isn’t crazy: Contrary to the refrain you hear in the South, the playoff selection committee does indeed value the SEC and its strength of schedule. The SEC’s eight bids across two years of the 12-team playoff top all conferences.
SEC coaches are skeptical that an extra conference game will benefit their playoff interests, but it should increase the possibility of a 9-3 team qualifying for the bracket. Consider Texas. The Longhorns will play six preseason top-20 teams. If they lose a close game to Ohio State in Week 2 and go 7-2 in the SEC, couldn’t that be a playoff resume?
Or, what about Oklahoma? The Sooners will play four preseason top-10 teams, including Georgia and Texas in the first half of the season. A 9-3 Sooners resume might be worth a look.
A nine-game conference schedule means more losses are coming to SEC teams. It also might mean the SEC's last-team-in now comes with a 9-3 record.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Six bold possibilities for 2026 college football season that aren't crazy
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