SMU vs Florida State Prop Picks for College Football Week 1

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No. 19 SMU (59%) kicks off the season with a standalone Labor Day matchup with ACC foe Florida State (41%).

My SMU vs. Florida State prop picks take note of the new playmakers for SMU and how the forecasted rain will impact rushing totals.

Here are my three favorite player props for this ACC matchup on Monday, Sept. 7. For more college football picks, check out our complete SMU vs. Florida State predictions.

Best SMU vs Florida State props

For help understanding probabilities, please see our odds calculator.

Pick	Probability
Yamir Knight Over 49.5 receiving yards	span data-sheets-root="1"53.49%/span
Ousmane Kromah Over 67.5 rushing yards	50.25%
Kendrick Raphael Over 64.5 rushing yards	50.25%

Percentages courtesy of ProphetX, one of the best prediction market apps.

Prop pick #1: Yamir Knight Over 49.5 receiving yards

ProphetX probability: 53.49%

SMU must replace 1,404 yards from its top two receivers, Jordan Hudson and Romello Brinson.

The logical next man up is slot Yamir Knight, who caught 54 passes for 637 yards and five scores and is the most experienced option in the room.

Knight had the highest receiving grade on the team (76.9 per PFF) and averaged a healthy 2.08 yards per route run, so he already has the efficiency part of the equation down. With an uptick in volume, his counting stats will only increase.

Florida State struggled defending the pass in Week 0, allowing 272 passing yards to a quarterback making his first start for an FBS squad.

The pass rush couldn't get home, and that's a problem if it rings true against Knight's star quarterback, Kevin Jennings.

Prop pick #2: Ousmane Kromah Over 67.5 rushing yards

ProphetX probability: 50.25%

While Knight stands out as a strong value play, the focus elsewhere should be on the ground game given the weather report. The forecast calls for a 77% chance of precipitation at kickoff, which moves to 32% an hour into the contest. 

Sloppy conditions should lead the Seminoles to rely on starting running back Ousmane Kromah, who took 14 carries for 115 yards and a touchdown in the opener. He averaged 6.14 yards after contact and broke five tackles, which is no outlier for the analytics darling. 

The No. 3 running back in the class of 2025, Kromah oozes talent. He'll run against an SMU defense that loses seven of its Top 12 tacklers and is green along the defensive front.

Prop pick #3: Kendrick Raphael Over 64.5 rushing yards

ProphetX probability: 50.25%

Speaking of running backs whole should get plenty of work given the wet field… California transfer Kendrick Raphael is primed for a big workload as SMU's starter in the backfield. 

Raphael is a proven workhorse who handled 266 touches for 1,188 yards and 14 scores a year ago. The Mustangs don't return a single rusher who accumulated 100+ yards, so the job is Raphael's for the taking. 

The offensive line returns 91 starts, led by Second Team All-ACC left tackle PJ Williams and honorable mention center Joshua Bates.

Florida State struggled along the defensive front a year ago (120th in stuff rate) and didn't appear to have the requisite difference makers in Week 0, so the Mustangs will seek to control this game up front.

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