Tate Making sense of murky information surrounding NIL payouts a complicated task

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May 19—Much of what we do in this business is speculation. It was appropriate that a columnist for my first newspaper called his words "Speculating in Sports."

Day after day, we wallow in guesswork. Just last week, a CBS Sports ranking of 2026 Big Ten football teams was published. More speculation. Guesstimates. How can anyone project today whether No. 4 Southern California will be better than No. 6 Penn State? Or rank Michigan, with its third coach in four years, superior to No. 9 Illinois?

Whether it's playoff seedings or mock drafts or polls or player rankings, it's all guesswork. Only the most arrogant would attach "educated" to any of this conjecture.

These opening words are offered to prepare you for what's to come: Name, image and likeness and the murky information surrounding it. Admit it. You're dying to hear what college athletes are receiving through NIL, even if the information isn't perfect.

More guesswork

Last week was a headache for Noah Henderson, a UI graduate and business school professor at Loyola Chicago who digs into the secretive land of NIL as founder and editor of The College Front Office.

When a comprehensive list of NIL football payouts hit social media last week, covering about 60 players on each of the four major conferences, all fingers pointed to Henderson as the source. Who else makes it his business to study NIL so thoroughly?

It wasn't him, Henderson saying Saturday: "I've looked at it. I don't know who is behind it. It's been a tough week for me. To be candid, I'm more on the basketball side."

Henderson, possessing more background of the subject than most, acknowledged that "some of those numbers might be reasonable. But I don't know where they came from."

As we wallow into the "salaries," we must remember they are estimates stemming from all manner of sources … leaks from agents, media reports, past performance, team status, player positions and who knows what else. Maybe artificial intelligence.

Who's making what?

So, let's wallow because, while imperfect, it offers insight as to where Bret Bielema's Illini might fit in the overall college football picture. It will verify an undeniable fact that, when Illinois goes up against Ohio State and Oregon, Bielema will be seriously outspent.

Our secret source concludes that Illinois has a single million-dollar player, transfer quarterback Katin Houser at $1.5 million.

By comparison, our secret source projects that 41 other quarterbacks make more NIL money, beginning with Miami's Darian Mensah at $10 million, Oregon's Dante Moore at $7.5 million and Texas' Arch Manning at $6.8 million. Three other QBs come in at $6 million, including Texas Tech's Brendan Sorsby, now under investigation for gambling.

Late developments like Sorsby may be slow to impact these imperfect rankings. For example, one of Illinois' top four NIL recipients is said to be tackle Ayden Knapik, an Idaho transfer on the NIL docket for more than $600,000 but ruled out for medical reasons. Brother Nathan Knapik has moved into his right tackle slot and is projected to receive $469,000.

We see that Illinois has made a deep dip into the transfer portal with Colorado State transfer Christian Martin and senior Brandon Henderson two of the highest paid offensive linemen at $500,000-plus. Atop the defensive line group is Penn transfer Carter Janki at $489,999, just ahead of running back Ca'Lil Valentine.

Where they stack up

Wallowing deeper into our unknown source, Illinois' overall football payments are ranked No. 17 in the Big Ten at $19.7 million, just ahead of Pat Fitzgerald's Michigan State team and just behind Northwestern's $20 million … which Illinoisans will find unlikely. In any case, it's close.

If you're wondering whether Indiana's champions will contend again, consider that they're said to pay five players more than $1 million, and 24 others $500,000-plus. When Illinois takes on Ohio State (there) and Oregon (here), those two powerhouses will likely be handing out twice as much in NIL dollars as the UI. Multiple sources have them topping $40 million. Oregon is shown to be paying 34 players a half-million dollars or more, including backup QB Dylan Raiola at $1.5 million.

So, even if every number above is imperfect, it gives you an idea why CBS Sports and most other polls put Illinois closer to the middle of the Big Ten pack than to the top.

Final point: There is nothing wrong with recognizing what others think of you.

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