Texas A&M’s 7-5 FPI Forecast Puts Mike Elko Under Pressure

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Texas A&M entered the weekend ranked No. 9 and thinking about competing near the top of the SEC. One ugly afternoon at Kyle Field changed the conversation dramatically.

The Aggies’ 31-21 loss to unranked Kentucky dropped Texas A&M to No. 23 in the AP Top 25 and No. 20 in the US LBM Coaches Poll, and ESPN’s Football Power Index now points toward something nobody in College Station envisioned: a potential 7-5 season.

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That’s not exactly the trajectory expected in Year 3 under Mike Elko.

Texas A&M’s problems against Kentucky weren’t subtle. Quarterback Marcel Reed completed 26 of 49 passes, threw one touchdown and two interceptions and was under constant pressure as the Aggies struggled to protect him. Kentucky broke open a 7-7 game by scoring 21 unanswered points in the third quarter.

Elko didn’t attempt to dress it up afterward, saying there was “not an ounce of a positive anywhere” in Texas A&M’s performance.

Now comes the uncomfortable part: the schedule gets much harder.

ESPN’s FPI gives Texas A&M just a 36.8 percent chance of winning at LSU Saturday night. The Aggies are also significant underdogs in projected matchups at Alabama, where FPI gives them a 29.8 percent chance, and against Texas, where their probability sits at only 26.7 percent.

Even the supposedly manageable portion of the schedule carries danger.

Texas A&M is favored by FPI at Missouri at 65.2 percent, at South Carolina at 63.0 percent and against Tennessee at 56.9 percent. Oklahoma in Norman is essentially a toss-up, with the Aggies holding a 47.5 percent chance.

That leaves very little margin for another performance like Kentucky.

There were individual bright spots. Defensive end T.J. Searcy continued to generate pressure, while senior cornerback Dezz Ricks has been exceptionally difficult to attack through the first three games.

But Texas A&M’s larger concerns are impossible to ignore.

The Aggies allowed Kentucky to pile up more than 400 total yards, including more than 150 on the ground, while Reed endured a miserable afternoon behind shaky protection.

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A 2-1 record isn’t a disaster by itself.

But with LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma and Texas still waiting, the Aggies may have already used up the one bad Saturday they could afford.

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