Top 25 Predictions: What the AP Poll Will Look Like After Week 1
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Games that weren’t supposed to be competitive came down to the wire and projected blowouts were shockingly intriguing. College football is back in earnest.
Only one ranked team lost in Week 1. By this sport’s standards, that’s quite calm. And No. 24 Louisville should not feel bad about the fight it put up against No. 9 Ole Miss. The Rebels’ 41-38 walk-off win was the most entertaining game of the week. And though the Cardinals will likely drop out of the top 25, there are teams in front of them that won that should feel worse about their performances.
An early contender for the most controversial game of the season was Western Michigan-Michigan. The No. 16 Wolverines were heavy favorites in coach Kyle Whittingham’s debut against the Broncos, but Western Michigan straight up outplayed Michigan in Ann Arbor. And for a brief moment, those watching on TV and in attendance at the Big House thought the game was over when Bryce Underwood’s Hail Mary overshot the end zone. But apparently, the broadcast clock was not synced with the game clock. Officials explained there was one second remaining, and Michigan’s prayer was answered on a miraculous heave.
Yes, the Wolverines won, 13-12. But this was not an encouraging result. It did, however, inspire me to look up the most a team has fallen in the AP poll after a win. The answer: 2015 Auburn dropped 12 spots from No. 6 to No. 18 after an overtime win against then-FCS Jacksonville State. Western Michigan is the defending champion of the MAC, so this is less a question of quality of opponent so much as an admission that Michigan played poorly for four quarters and lucked into a late win.
If it were up to me, the Wolverines would be unranked next week when they host No. 10 Oklahoma. (The spread of this game has already flipped from Michigan -2.5 to the Sooners -5.5.) But the purpose of this column is to predict what the AP voters will do. And I think there’s a chance the Wolverines don’t drop out entirely.
Boise State also gave No. 2 Oregon all it could handle in a game that did more to legitimize the Broncos’ standing as the Group of 6 team to beat than create doubt about the Ducks. But still, Oregon was favored by upwards of three scores and won 34-27. (Ironically, Boise State and Western Michigan will meet in a few weeks.)
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There were still plenty of blowouts among top-25 teams. Five programs (No. 8 Texas A&M, No. 10 Oklahoma, No. 14 USC, No. 18 Penn State and No. 22 Iowa) blanked their opponents. But there were only two blowouts that really registered and might resonate with voters.
No. 7 Miami throttled Stanford, 45-6, in a Friday night game it easily could have sleepwalked through. No matter; it looked like transfer quarterback Darian Mensah and wide receiver Malachi Toney have been playing together for years. And then there’s No. 11 LSU. In coach Lane Kiffin’s debut, his Tigers scored 51 unanswered points in a 51-10 embarrassment of Clemson. The noise — about Kiffin’s unceremonious exit from Ole Miss, offseason comments and pursuit of NFL players — did not appear to interfere with the product on the field in the slightest.
The next poll will be released on Tuesday at 2 p.m. ET. Here’s Athlon Sports’ AP Top 25 projection after Week 1.
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This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Sep 8, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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