USC Trojans Projected to Reach College Football Playoff for First Time in 2026
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The 2026 college football season is several months away, but ESPN is already considering which 12 teams could qualify for the College Football Playoff.
ESPN’s analytical expert, Bill Connelly, has compiled a list of the 12 teams he believes will compete in next season’s tournament. Connelly used specific criteria to create these rankings. Instead of merely asking, “Who are the best teams on paper?” he aims to establish some guidelines to help predict how the College Football Playoff (CFP) race will unfold.
He enjoyed this exercise last year. While it correctly predicted only four of the 12 playoff teams, the Way-Too-Early predictions only accurately forecasted three. Additionally, last year’s rules don’t need many changes. Those rules are:
- The Big Ten will be won by the best team not named Ohio State.
- The SEC has to be won by either Kirby Smart (2017, 2022, 2024, 2025) or a coach who has proved he can beat Kirby Smart (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023).
- The Big 12: Either flip the close games around … or go with the money.
- The ACC has to be won by either Clemson (2011, 2015-20, 2022, 2024) or a team that beat Clemson in the regular season (2012-14, 2021, 2023, 2025).
- Best Group of Six champ: The best team to schedule multiple power-conference opponents wins.
- At-Large Bids: Six teams from the Way-Too-Early Top 25 and a team that had a losing record last season.
Based on that criteria, he concluded that the USC Trojans will make the playoff for the first time in program history as Lincoln Riley enters Year 5. On3 discussed this prediction.
“Lincoln Riley was tabbed to bring USC national championships as its head coach,” Steve Samra wrote. He’s yet to make the CFP, but ESPN has the Trojans firmly in the Top 12 at No. 5 for next season. With quarterback Jayden Maiava returning for another go-round, the offense should be potent. The Trojans could be a major problem for opponents when you look at what they’re working with.”
If Connelly’s criteria hold true once again, the 2026 season could mark a turning point for the Trojans. Despite consistent national attention and elite recruiting, USC has yet to reach the College Football Playoff, making this projection a notable milestone as Riley enters his fifth season in Los Angeles.
The Trojans’ path would likely hinge on navigating the Big Ten landscape, where Connelly’s framework often favors a non–Ohio State champion emerging. With USC continuing to build around its quarterback play and offensive identity, the pieces appear to be in place for a legitimate playoff push.
While early projections are far from guarantees, Connelly’s approach emphasizes precedent over hype. If USC can align with those trends and deliver on expectations, 2026 may finally be the year the Trojans break through and join the College Football Playoff field.
Related: Major College Football Program Loses Key Coordinator to Big Ten Foe
This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Jan 31, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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