Week 3 college football betting, odds: 3 early bets to make right now

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Two weeks of results have given the market exactly what it wants: a scoreboard to price from. That's the trap in Week 3.

Notre Dame beat Rice 52-0, Oklahoma beat UTEP 51-0 and Clemson opened at home with a 22-7 win. The numbers on all three this week are shaped by blowouts built against other teams.

The Irish are laying 29.5 to a Michigan State team whose quarterback hasn't thrown an interception. The Sooners, one week after scoring just 10 in Ann Arbor, are laying 23.5 to an offense that has put up 108 points in two games. Clemson is a short favorite over North Carolina with a true freshman making his first career start.

Three underdogs. Three different reasons the favorite's number is built on the wrong film.

Here are three early Week 3 college football wagers I like right now:

Michigan State at Notre Dame (-29.5, 52.5)

The Megaphone Trophy comes out of storage for the first time since 2017, in the 60th anniversary season of the 1966 "Game of the Century," and No. 3 Notre Dame looks every bit the part.

CJ Carr is completing 71.4% of his passes through two games with six touchdowns and no interceptions. The defense is allowing just 6.5 points per game, the turnover margin is plus-six and the 52-0 win over Rice came a week after the Irish pulled away from Wisconsin 41-13 at Lambeau Field. The instinct to lay the number is understandable — Notre Dame should win this game comfortably, and nothing about Michigan State's wins over Toledo and Eastern Michigan suggests otherwise. The problem is what a 30-point cover actually requires: possessions.

Pat Fitzgerald's Spartans have held the ball for 37:18 per game, second in the country, powered by Cam Edwards and his 250 yards on 48 carries. Quarterback Alessio Milivojevic has quietly completed 70.4% of his passes for 417 yards without an interception. That's the exact profile of a heavy underdog that shortens the game, whether it intends to or not.

Notre Dame's own run game is averaging just 114.5 yards per game (116th nationally), so the Irish aren't built to manufacture extra drives in a shortened game. Their red zone defense has allowed scores on two of every three trips (120th nationally), the kind of number that turns a five-touchdown win into a three-touchdown margin.

Our score projection lands at 41-14, Notre Dame by 27. Bill Connelly's SP+ model has it 41-13 on the nose.

One honest caveat: a MAC schedule proves little about Michigan State's offensive line against a defense like this. This isn't a bet on Michigan State being good, it's a bet that a team that plays keep away and avoids turnovers rarely loses by 30.

Bet: Michigan State +29.5 (-110)

New Mexico at Oklahoma (-23.5, 47.5)

Oklahoma and New Mexico haven't met since 1935, when the Sooners won 47-0, and this week's number is built with a similar outcome in mind. The 51-0 win over UTEP was real. John Mateer threw three touchdowns before the backups took over, and the Lobos have faced Central Michigan and Mercyhurst. It's not hard to see Oklahoma winning this game by four touchdowns.

What's harder to buy is the idea that this offense is a lock to get into the 30s on its own, because it hasn't done it against a real defense yet.

Oklahoma went to Michigan last week and produced 289 yards and 10 points. Mateer finished 17-of-33 for 189 yards with a touchdown and a fourth-quarter interception that set up the winning score.

New Mexico is better than its schedule suggests. Jason Eck was the Mountain West Coach of the Year last season after a 9-4 campaign that included the program's first bowl trip since 2016 and a 35-10 win at the Rose Bowl over UCLA. This year's team has scored 108 points in two games, including a program record 42 in one quarter against Mercyhurst, while forcing seven turnovers.

The market has already accounted for QB Jack Layne's absence. His second elbow surgery was announced Aug. 27, and Eck has turned to Luke Moga and James Laubstein without the offense missing a step.

The crux is simple: New Mexico has shown it can score on everyone it's faced, and Oklahoma hasn't shown it can score on a real defense. We make it Oklahoma by 21, projecting a 34-13 final. There's value on the underdog at this number.

Bet: New Mexico +23.5 (-110)

North Carolina at Clemson (-3.5, 44.5)

Noon in Death Valley, and the market is moving toward the right side without getting all the way there.

Clemson has beaten North Carolina seven straight times. The Tar Heels haven't won in Clemson since 1997, and the home side is still the better program on paper, so the case for laying a short number isn't hard to make. This line opened at Clemson -5.5 and has moved to -3.5, and that move traces back to one piece of news.

QB Christopher Vizzina injured his non-throwing elbow in the 22-7 win over Georgia Southern. Dabo Swinney said at halftime his quarterback "couldn't feel his left arm," and the injury is expected to sideline him 1-2 weeks, handing the ACC opener to true freshman Tait Reynolds.

Reynolds, a three-star enrollee in January, pushed Vizzina throughout the summer and narrowly lost the job. He's also played more than his depth chart spot suggests, relieving Vizzina by halftime in the 51-10 loss at LSU and going 16-of-27 for 178 yards while leading five scoring drives against Georgia Southern. That's a competent showing against a Sun Belt defense.

Bet North Carolina to cover the spread at sportsbooks

Saturday is a different test: his first career start against Bill Belichick. North Carolina has opened 2-0 by holding TCU to 10 points in a rainstorm in Dublin and East Tennessee State to three, with sixth-year transfer Billy Edwards Jr. cleanly operating Bobby Petrino's offense.

We make this a 1.5-point game with a healthy Vizzina, so getting a field goal and a hook against a true freshman's first start has value. SP+ leans Clemson, and the sharper books are split — which is why this is the third play on the card, not the first.

A 74-year-old defensive coach with a full week to prepare for a true freshman making his first start is the kind of edge that doesn't show up in a rating.

Bet: North Carolina +3.5 (-115)

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