Week 3 College Football Predictions: Picks for 10 Best Games This Week, including LSU vs Ole Miss
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The entire country circled the Week 3 college football schedule a while back for Lane Kiffin’s return to Oxford as the headliner of the LSU Tigers vs. Ole Miss Rebels matchup. That is the proverbial dessert on the slate of college football games this week, with a few other contests that are worth keeping an eye on throughout the day.
Let’s dive into our Week 3 college football predictions, making picks for each of the 10 best college football games this week.
Houston Cougars 28, Texas Tech Red Raiders 21
We get a ranked-versus-ranked matchup on Friday night, with the Houston Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders from Galaxy Stadium on FOX. Texas Tech comes into this matchup as a 7.5-point favorite at home, which feels a bit high considering how this team has looked through the first two weeks. In his first year back from ACL surgery, quarterback Will Hammond (59.3 ESPN QBR and 2-1 TD-INT on 60 attempts with 4 sacks taken) has just been adequate. More concerning, however, is a Red Raiders defense that is allowing 6.5 yards per play (109th in FBS) after leading the country in fewest yards per play allowed (3.9) in 2025. We just don’t see Texas Tech’s pass rush as being capable of consistently generating pressure on quarterback Conner Weigman, and that spells even more trouble for the backend of a defense that could have issues covering Amare Thomas, Koby Young and Patrick Overmyer. On Friday night, we think Houston goes into Lubbock and proves who is the team to beat in the Big 12 Conference.
North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Clemson Tigers 14
This game shouldn’t be anything like the 38-10 thrashing the Clemson Tigers handed to the North Carolina Tar Heels in Chapel Hill last year. It also says a lot about how far Dabo Swinney’s program has fallen that Clemson is only a three-point favorite on Saturday afternoon at Memorial Stadium. Tigers freshman quarterback Tait Reynolds did show some flashes of promise this past week, but that came against Georgia Southern and he still had an abysmal 11.3 ESPN QBR. Now the 19-year-old quarterback will be making a start against a Bill Belichick defense that ranks 30th nationally in sack rate (8.57 percent) with a 108.4 passer rating (26th) and 5.5 yards per attempt (21st) allowed. We simply have no faith in the Tigers offense, and believe North Carolina will force Clemson’s freshman quarterback into at least one turnover that sets the Tar Heels’ offense up in scoring range. The Week 3 home loss to UNC will be an all-time low for Swinney.
Texas A&M Aggies 35, Kentucky Wildcats 17
Don’t let last Saturday’s 48-20 score fool you, as the Texas A&M Aggies were in a tight game at Kyle Field with Arizona State until the fourth quarter when a pair of pick-sixes turned it into a blowout. The Aggies’ defense looked vulnerable at times through the first three quarters, surrendering nearly 190 receiving yards to receiver Reed Harris. First-year Kentucky Wildcats coach Will Stein will find some opportunities for quarterback Kenny Minchey to take some shots, but the offensive line in front of him will really limit those chances, and he does make mistakes under duress. Texas A&M should win this one going away at home.
Alabama Crimson Tide 38, Florida State Seminoles 14
Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell was already feeling the pressure coming into the season. It intensified ahead of the Week 3 matchup against the Alabama Crimson Tide when his athletic director was dismissed on Monday morning. What does that have to do with this Seminoles vs. Crimson Tide matchup? We’ve already seen Norvell’s bad coaching in pressure situations, and he’s now taking his team to Tuscaloosa for this Saturday afternoon draw. Look for Keelon Russell to put up over 200 passing yards against a Power 4 defense for the first time in his career, with Ryan Coleman-Williams and Loteir Brooks both finding the end zone as the Crimson Tide roll out to a 3-0 start.
Related: Insider Reveals How Many Wins Mike Norvell Needs to Avoid Being Fired
Louisville Cardinals 38, SMU Mustangs 35
After repeatedly getting in their own way in the Week 1 victory against Florida State, the SMU Mustangs responded this past weekend in their home opener by demolishing UC Davis. Quarterback Kevin Jennings (337 passing yards and 5 touchdowns) was excellent, but we still have concerns regarding his penchant for turning the football over. A single giveaway could be especially costly on Saturday against the Louisville Cardinals, especially given the emergence of quarterback Lincoln Kienholz (639 passing yards, 117 rushing yards, 7 total touchdowns and a 91.7 ESPN QBR). We’re expecting plenty of scoring from both offenses in this one, but Louisville will take advantage of a second-half Jennings interception and turn it into a scoring drive. That will be the difference in this tight game.
Mississippi State Bulldogs 31, South Carolina Gamecocks 28
The Week 3 matchup between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and South Carolina Gamecocks is a litmus test for both programs, with the victor all but guaranteed to crack the top 25 rankings on Sunday morning. Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers is obviously the bigger name but Mississippi State’s emerging star Kamario Taylor is having the better season thus far. Taylor is coming off consecutive starts with at least 200 passing yards, 59-plus rushing yards and three-plus touchdowns with the help of senior wideout Anthony Evans III. We’re fascinated to see how the young signal-caller handles South Carolina’s pass rush, but the Bulldogs might have the advantage on the perimeter over the Gamecocks’ cornerbacks. Home-field advantage and experience do matter here for South Carolina, but Mississippi State’s win last Saturday in Minnesota and what Jeff Lebby is doing with this offense push us to picking the Bulldogs to come out on top.
Virginia Cavaliers 28, West Virginia Mountaineers 17
The Virginia Cavaliers are one of the hottest teams in college football right now. The program is 12-2 since Week 3 of last season and is getting steady play this year from quarterback Beau Pribula. What really stands out with Virginia in 2026 is its defense, which ranks 12th nationally in points per play allowed (0.151), fifth in yards per play allowed (3.2) and is holding opponents to a 30.8 percent third-down conversion rate. While the West Virginia Mountaineers are riding high after a 2-0 start to the season, passing the football has been a major issue, and that could pose a problem given the limited success opponents have had on the ground against the Cavaliers defense. We expect Virginia to make it a 3-0 start to the season, with all three being double-digit victories.
Florida Gators 24, Auburn Tigers 21
The Florida Gators (2-0) and Auburn Tigers (2-0) have both enjoyed undefeated starts to the season against bad competition. The real test comes on Saturday night under the lights at Jordan-Hare Stadium. It’s really difficult to assess just how good this Gators offense is because the success through the air (643 passing yards) and on the ground (495 rushing yards) has come against Florida Atlantic and Campbell. As for Auburn’s offense, running backs Jeremiah Cobb and Omar Mabson can lead an effective ground game, but it’s fair to wonder what version of quarterback Byrum Brown we’ll get two weeks removed from a three-interception game vs. Baylor. He does have experience against the Gators defense, putting up 329 total yards on them in last season’s stunning upset win by South Florida in The Swamp. We think Florida head coach Jon Sumrall rides running back Jadan Baugh early in this one, limiting how much time the Tigers offense spends on the field. In the end, a fourth-quarter interception by Brown allows the Gators to eat up more of the clock, and a last-minute comeback for Auburn falls short.
Virginia Tech Hokies 24, Maryland Terrapins 20
James Franklin has the Virginia Tech Hokies trending in the right direction, but pundits rightfully won’t put much stock in victories over VMI and Old Dominion. Beating the Maryland Terrapins (2-0) might not carry massive weight, but it would demonstrate this year’s Hokies can go out on the road and win an important game. The Terrapins are only a three-point underdog at home, largely because of what the backfield tandem of Malik Washington (533 passing yards and a 73.6% completion rate) and running back Iverson Howard (121 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns) have done this season. What’s the difference-maker here in a close matchup with two good quarterbacks? The massive coaching edge Virginia Tech holds over Maryland.
LSU Tigers 21, Ole Miss Rebels 14
So much of the focus for the LSU Tigers vs Ole Miss Rebels matchup will rightfully be on Lane Kiffin’s return to Vaught-Hemingway-Stadium. After all, that’s the reason why ESPN College GameDay is in Oxford for Week 3. LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt and running back Dilin Jones will certainly be fired up to deliver an offensive clinic for their head coach in front of what might be the most hostile crowd we’ll see in college football all year. With that said, we think this game is decided by something else.
Through two games, LSU’s defense has allowed the lowest yards-per-carry average (0.6) and the fewest first downs per game (8.0) while ranking 18th in yards per pass attempt (5.4), 17th in passer rating allowed (104.6) and it ranks third in sacks per game (5.5). Tigers defensive coordinator Blake Baker has both the scheme and talent, especially with the speed LSU has on the field, to effectively contain what Ole Miss wants to do. Leavitt will make some mistakes through the air, interceptions have been a real problem for him in 2026. However, even with the Rebels’ home-field advantage, we think the best unit on the field wins this game and that’s the LSU defense.
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