What Brendan Sorsby's Eligibility Means for Texas Tech's Odds in 2026
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The biggest story this spring in college football has been the news on Texas Tech QB Brendan Sorsby, who was granted an injunction vs. the NCAA and is eligible to play in 2026.
Sorsby will still miss Texas Tech's first two games, a penalty proposed by his attorneys.
Sorsby was originally ruled ineligible by the NCAA after it discovered he'd wagered approximately $90,000 on professional and college sports over four years, including 40 bets involving Indiana football when he was a freshman with the Hoosiers in 2022.
Today’s news comes as a shock to me, as I was expecting Sorsby NOT to play college football again.
So, how much does Sorsby playing most of the season impact Texas Tech’s power rating, their win total, and their National Championship odds? Let's take a look.
Texas Tech futures odds 2026
These are the latest Texas Tech odds following the judge's ruling that allows Sorsby to play for the Red Raiders in 2026.
| Market | |
|---|---|
| National Championship | +1500 |
| To make the CFP | -350 |
| Conference Champion | -130 |
| Win total (Over 10.5) | -300 |
Sorsby effect
In an earlier article, I speculated Brendan Sorsby was worth 3.5 to 4 points to Texas Tech’s team power rating. The situation was a bit murky, considering its top backup, Will Hammond, missed the entire spring recovering from a torn ACL last October.
Texas Tech plays Abilene Christian and Oregon State in its first two games. With Sorsby out, and even if Hammond can’t play, you’re still looking at the Red Raiders being huge favorites in both games — so it won’t matter much as far as wins and losses.
With Sorsby playing the final 10 games, my power ratings now project Texas Tech to be at least a two-touchdown favorite in every game this season.
The Red Raiders avoid BYU and Utah (the next best teams in the Big 12) in conference play and get dark horse Big 12 contender Houston at home.
Texas Tech best bet for 2026
Best bet: Texas Tech to win the Big 12 (-130 at FanDuel)
Texas Tech’s win total is 10.5, with the Over juiced (currently -300 at FanDuel, was -172 prior to the news of Sorsby's return). This coincides with my power ratings, which currently project Texas Tech to win 11.1 games with Sorsby. That win total projection is actually the highest in the country.
However, I don’t like Texas Tech’s chances of winning the National Championship (+1500 at FanDuel). My power ratings, even with Sorsby eligible, would still have the Red Raiders as underdogs on a neutral field to Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Georgia, Indiana, Texas, and Miami.
Even with the Red Raiders likely making the playoffs (-350 at FanDuel), I’d expect them to be underdogs in multiple rounds.
It's also important to look at how this news has affected the Heisman Trophy odds.
Earlier this spring, I gave out Sorsby as my Heisman best bet. I think that is a loser because there will be plenty of Heisman voters who won’t vote for him for personal reasons, even if Sorsby has by far the best statistical season in college football this year.
Where I do think there is value is still in the conference futures market. With Sorsby, I project Texas Tech to win 8.1 games in Big 12 play, with BYU being the next closest at 6.6.
I think there’s at least an 80% chance TT makes the Big 12 Championship game, and right now I would have it favored by at least eight points in that game.
Remember, the Red Raiders were 13-point favorites in last year’s Big 12 Championship game vs BYU and easily covered.
Finally, Texas Tech brings back 12 starters from last year (tied for the most in the Big 12) and welcomes in 10 transfers who were full-time starters at the FBS level last year. The Red Raiders' 22 combined returning starters are also tied for the most in college football.
This is the most talented and most experienced team in the Big 12. They have the easiest schedule out of the contenders, and now their Top 10 quarterback has been ruled eligible.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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