Where do champions come from? History tells us preseason No. 1 comes with warning
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Ohio State topped the 2026 preseason US LBM Coaches Poll when it was released Aug. 4, marking the program’s first preseason No. 1 ranking in the poll since 2015.
However, if history is any guide, that may not be the place the Buckeyes want to be.
USA TODAY Sports analyzed the history of Coaches Poll preseason rankings and compared the eventual champions to their initial rank, spanning the UPI and USA TODAY-administered versions of the poll since 1978.
Across the 48 years of the Coaches Poll since 1978, the No. 1 ranked team has won the championship just five times. Oklahoma did so in 1985, Florida State in 1993 and 1999, Southern California in 2004 and Alabama in 2017.
The most common preseason rank of the eventual champion is No. 2. That spot has gone on to win the title 10 times, including Ohio State in 2024. In percentage terms, that means the preseason No. 2 team has won the championship 20.8% of the time.
Alabama and Clemson won from that spot twice, while the other champions with a preseason No. 2 ranking include Nebraska, Miami, Texas, LSU and Michigan.
Oregon is ranked No. 2 in this year’s preseason poll, although — notably — Oregon has never won a national title. The Ducks have also never been ranked as high as No. 2 going into a season until this year. They have been No. 3 several times, however, including most recently in 2024.
No. 5 is the next most common, as the champion has been ranked fifth in the preseason six times. This year’s No. 5 team is Notre Dame, which last won a national championship in 1988. The Fighting Irish were ranked 13th in that year’s preseason Coaches Poll.
Among the top 5 spots, the least frequent rank for eventual champions has been No. 4, which has only won twice: Washington in 1991 and Florida in 1996. Texas is No. 4 this year.
The highest ranking that has never produced a champion is No. 11. This year that spot falls to Alabama, which has not won a championship after beginning the season lower than No. 9.
Three champions have been unranked in the preseason, although none since 1990. Those three are Clemson in 1981, BYU in 1984 and Georgia Tech in 1990. This means a team has never won the title from unranked in the preseason throughout the entirety of the BCS and College Football Playoff eras.
All told, Ohio State has won three titles since 1978. It did so from No. 2 in 2024, No. 6 in 2014 and No. 12 in 2002. But if it ends up atop the 12-team playoff this season, it’ll be the first time it’s done so when it entered the year ranked No. 1 in the Coaches Poll.
Methodology: USA TODAY analyzed preseason Coaches Polls from 1978 through 2025 and identified the team that finished No. 1 in each season’s final Coaches Poll. Each rank’s champions were then tallied together to produce the final counts. This analysis uses the uninterrupted annual preseason Coaches Poll from 1978 through 2025. Earlier preseason polls were excluded. Champions prior to the BCS were based on the Coaches Poll final ranking; champions since the BCS started were based on the BCS or College Football Playoff.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Where do champions come from? History tells us preseason No. 1 comes with warning
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