Who gets fired first? College football's hottest coaching seats entering October
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Curt Cignetti has blown it for everyone.
At least for college football coaches trying to sell patience during a rebuild.
In an era when athletic directors and fan bases expect instant gratification, Cignetti's rapid turnaround at Indiana has only shortened the fuse elsewhere.
That's part of the reason Maryland's patience with Mike Locksley stands out. The Terrapins have shown remarkable restraint, aided in no small part by Locksley's strong relationship with Under Armour founder and Maryland benefactor Kevin Plank.
But patience has its limits.
Another weekend of college football is in the books, bringing several coaches one step closer to collecting seven-figure paydays for not coaching.
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Mike Locksley, Maryland
The easy argument against Mike Locksley is the record: Maryland has lost 18 of its past 28 games.
But that's also the shallow argument.
To understand just how far the Terapins have fallen, look beyond the raw losses and examine what has happened since Locksley led Maryland to 23 wins from 2021-23.
Since the start of the 2024 season, Maryland has managed just three victories against Power Four opponents. During that same stretch, the Terps have suffered 13 losses by double digits, a staggering sign of how noncompetitive they've become against quality competition.
Since the start of the 2024 season, Maryland has just three wins against Power Four conference opponents; in that same time frame, it has 13 losses by 10 or more points, including Saturday's 54-3 home loss to UCLA, which had fans emptying the stadium by halftime and Locksley facing questions about his future.
Momentum is gone. Confidence is gone. Competitiveness is fading fast.
A divorce here seems unavoidable.
Lincoln Riley, USC
Surging onto the list from the realms of the unbeaten, Riley and USC seem headed to an inevitable split.
A coach's defining accomplishments rarely come in Year 1. Even Riley's breakthrough debut season came with an asterisk when the Trojans were dismantled by Utah in the Pac-12 championship game and watched their College Football Playoff hopes disappear.
Since that night, USC has largely drifted. Despite churning out NFL Draft picks, the Trojans have produced an increasingly ordinary product on the field.
Riley won 17 games in his first season and a half, including a 6-0 start to the 2023 campaign. Since then, USC has gone just 22-16, with many of those victories coming against non-Power Four opponents and the lower tier of the Big Ten.
USC hasn’t beaten Notre Dame since Riley’s inaugural year in Hollywood, and it has lost 16 games against P-4 opponents since the midpoint of that 2023 season.
Complicating matters is a contract that was structured very favorably for Riley. Since changes atop USC's athletic department, multiple people with direct knowledge tell USA TODAY Sports that Riley could choose to leave Los Angeles without owing a buyout.
At this point, it's fair to wonder whether both sides might benefit from a fresh start.
Regardless, nothing short of winning out and reaching the CFP would seem to put Riley’s own fate totally in his hands.
Deion Sanders, Colorado
Former Colorado athletic director Rick George bought all the Coach Prime hype, right down to the "Louis Vuitton luggage."
But what's Colorado's return on that investment?
The Buffaloes are just 2-11 in their past 13 games against Power Four competition.
The broader picture isn't much better. Under Sanders, Colorado is a dismal 12-25 against Power Four opponents, with 14 of those losses coming by double digits.
In this past week's 10-point loss to Baylor, Sanders even benched his handpicked quarterback, JuJu Lewis, adding another troubling chapter to a season already veering off course.
Colorado has a hefty roster-payroll and is paying Sanders handsomely; it would owe him almost $32 million to fire him at this point.
For all the attention, hype and headlines, this grand experiment has produced one standout season and a mountain of disappointment. The results simply haven't matched the sales pitch.
Greg Schiano, Rutgers
A bye week doesn't erase the problems.
Rutgers has lost 10 of its past 13 games, and the road ahead only gets tougher.
After sitting out this weekend, the Scarlet Knights host defending national champion Indiana on Saturday, Oct. 3.
The numbers paint a brutal picture for Schiano. Rutgers has been overmatched against Big Ten and Power Four competition, piling up five double-digit losses since the start of the 2025 season. The Scarlet Knights opened this year with a shocking loss to UMass, then followed it with defeats to a struggling Boston College team and USC.
Bill Belichick, North Carolina
The Tar Heels have already lost two of the most important figures Belichick brought with him. Top defensive assistant Steve Belichick is gone. General manager Mike Lombardi has resigned as well.
Up next? Only No. 3 Notre Dame, which has already been installed as a three-touchdown favorite.
The good news is that, among coaches on the hottest seats, Belichick may have one of the more manageable exit clauses. UNC can walk away from the experiment for $10 million, a substantial figure but hardly crippling in today's college football economy.
And according to industry sources, the school could have another avenue. Given the investigation surrounding the departures of Lombardi and Steve Belichick, North Carolina could attempt to challenge portions of any payout and negotiate that figure lower.
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Oklahoma made a hasty decision when it rewarded Brent Venables with an extension after the 2025 season.
The Sooners reached the College Football Playoff as an at-large team, only to get run off their own field by Alabama. Rather than treating that season as a step forward with questions still to answer, Oklahoma doubled down.
The return on that investment has been a full-blown dumpster fire.
Oklahoma cannot score — maybe Sooners offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle is destined for this list — and is keeping its defense on the field way too much.
Shane Beamer feels one ugly Saturday away from rocketing up this list.
That's what makes South Carolina's struggles so alarming. The Gamecocks have legitimate talent in quarterback LaNorris Sellers and edge rusher Dylan Stewart, both viewed as potential first-round NFL Draft picks.
Yet the results haven't come close to matching the talent.
South Carolina has been thoroughly outclassed in SEC play, getting outscored 90-52 by its first two conference opponents this season. Zoom out further, and the trend becomes even more troubling: The Gamecocks are 1-9 in their past 10 SEC games.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Who gets fired first? College football's hottest coaching seats entering October
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