2026-27 college football betting preview: 5 best value bets to make the College Football Playoff
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Before diving into my five best bets to make the 2026-27 College Football Playoff, let's first address the glaring omissions — the schools currently stacked atop the CFP odds board.
Yep, for this exercise, I'm leaving the likes of Notre Dame, Ohio State, Miami and Georgia on the sidelines. The reason, as with most things in the sports betting ecosystem, comes down to one word: value.
Are the top preseason favorites a virtual lock to make the 12-team field this season? Barring significant injuries, absolutely. But the risk in laying exorbitant prices like -800 (Notre Dame) and -360 (Ohio State) far exceeds the potential reward — especially with five months of runway until the CFP kicks off.
Instead, I'm targeting five teams that check two important boxes: a reasonable chance to make the tournament, and solid plus-money value in the preseason 2026-27 CFP odds market.
2026-27 CFP best bet: Texas A&M
Best odds: +195 (FanDuel)
After accumulating at least four losses in the previous four seasons, Texas A&M had a breakthrough campaign in 2025-26. The Aggies raced out to an 11-0 start before closing the regular season with a 27-17 loss at Texas.
Despite that modest upset defeat, Texas A&M finished seventh in the final CFP rankings, easily nabbing an at-large berth. Unfortunately for the Aggies, their first CFP appearance was brief, losing to eventual national championship runner-up Miami 10-3 in overtime.
Nine players who experienced that bitter loss are back this year. That includes senior quarterback Marcel Reed, who has amassed 5,033 passing yards with 40 touchdowns and 18 interceptions in two seasons as a starter.
Rejoining Reed are leading rusher Rueben Owens II and second-leading receiver Mario Craver, while the defense that finished 18th in yards allowed in 2025 has five players coming back.
Perhaps most important, Texas A&M added several impactful transfer portal reinforcements (the Aggies placed in the top 15 in multiple portal rankings).
As with every SEC team, A&M's schedule has some landmines, including trips to LSU and Alabama, followed by a closing stretch of Tennessee (home), Oklahoma (road) and Texas (home).
I'm a big believer in experience, though, especially at the QB spot — and especially when that QB is both gifted and eager to atone for a poor CFP showing last year.
2026-27 CFP best bet: Penn State
Best odds: +375 (Caesars Sportsbook)
From my perspective, Penn State's biggest offseason addition was actually a subtraction: head coach James Franklin.
After failing time and again against top-ranked opponents in marquee games, Franklin was cut loose midway through last season. Associate head coach Terry Smith took over on an interim basis, and although Penn State finished on a four-game winning streak — including an upset of Clemson in the Pinstripe Bowl — the school wisely went fishing for a veteran to lead the program.
In the end, the Nittany Lions reeled in Matt Campbell, who had eight winning seasons and seven bowl appearances in 10 years at Iowa State (whose resources pale in comparison to Penn State's).
Campbell pretty much wiped the roster clean, as only five starters return from last year's 7-6 squad. However, he raided the portal for nearly 40 transfers. The fact that several of those newcomers relocated from Iowa State means Penn State likely won't have much of an adjustment period.
That probably explains why the Nittany Lions are the consensus sixth choice to win the 18-team Big Ten.
If Campbell can get his troops to play slightly above expectations, Penn State figures to be in the CFP hunt. After all, since the tournament expanded to 12 teams, seven Big Ten teams — four in 2024 and three in 2025 — have earned a berth.
2026-27 CFP best bet: Utah
Best odds: +500 (bet365)
Texas Tech enters the season as the overwhelming favorite to win a second consecutive Big 12 title, with BYU as the consensus second choice. That's noteworthy, because both teams made the CFP a season ago — the first time the conference placed two teams in the tournament.
Barring a bevy of wild events, the league won't do better than two bids this season. And if preseason prognosticators are on point, Texas Tech will get one of them.
So why take a shot with Utah instead of BYU? For starters, while the Utes are right behind BYU on the Big 12 championship futures board there's a bigger gap between the two in the CFP odds market — with Utah bringing more of a potential return.
Also, the Utes are coming off an 11-2 bounce-back season — a mark that would've risen to 12-1 if not for a 24-21 road loss to their bitter instate rival.
The Utes did undergo a significant offseason overhaul both on the field (just five returning starters) and on the sidelines (head coach Kyle Whittingham bolted Salt Lake City after 21 seasons to take over at Michigan). But the transition should be smooth, as new coach Morgan Scalley was Whittingham's understudy for two decades.
For Utah to claim its first-ever CFP berth, it must do two things: reach the Big 12 title game with at least an 11-1 record, and snap a three-game losing skid to BYU.
I'm confident the Utes can accomplish the first task, in part because of a favorable schedule that doesn't feature Texas Tech. As for the latter? Well, history is on Utah's side, as it hasn't dropped four straight "Holy War" matchups since 1987.
2026-27 CFP best bet: Boise State
Best odds: +550 (BetMGM)
After a two-year hiatus, the Pac-12 rejoins the college football family this season. Albeit with eight members … none of which have any big-name cache.
As a result, the reconstituted conference finds itself on the outside of the "Power Four" inner circle. Translation: No automatic CFP bid for the league champ.
However, that doesn't mean the Pac-12 can't earn a seat at the big-boy table, as the highest-ranked "Group of Six" school is guaranteed an invite. And while the seven remaining at-large berths probably will go to power conference schools, it's not a certainty — so that's another potential CFP pathway for the Group of 6.
Boise State shifts to the Pac-12 this season after dominating the Mountain West Conference for more than two decades while also consistently competing (and often beating) upper-echelon schools.
Oddsmakers certainly expect the Broncos to continue their winning ways, as they're the clear-cut preseason favorites to win the Pac-12 title. The reason: Of the 11 starters returning from last year's Mountain West championship-winning squad, seven line up on offense.
That offense is led by third-year quarterback Maddux Madsen (41 TD passes the last two years) and the one-two running back punch of Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines (combined 1,973 rushing yards and 21 total TDs last season).
Boise State faces a monumental challenge in its opener when it visits Oregon. But if the Broncos compete as well as they did the last time they faced Oregon (37-34 road loss in 2024) — and escape in good health — they have a realistic chance to run the table and return to the CFP for the second time in three years.
2026-27 CFP best bet: UNLV
Best odds: 11-1 (FanDuel)
No team in the country is more excited about Boise State's move to the Pac-12 than UNLV.
Over the past three seasons, the Rebels have compiled an astounding 30-12 record — "astounding" because the school had posted two winning seasons from 1995-2022. However, five of UNLV's 12 losses came against Boise State, including three consecutive Mountain West Conference championship game defeats.
With the Broncos out of the picture — along with the majority of the Mountain West's other top-tier programs — UNLV has an excellent opportunity to win its first league championship in 32 years. And a more-than-decent chance to do so with an unblemished record.
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Here's why: Two of the Rebels' three toughest games (Memphis in Week 1 and Cal in Week 6) are at home. The only other difficult hurdle is at New Mexico in mid-November (a revenge game for UNLV, which fell 40-35 to the Lobos last year).
Assuming UNLV arrives in Albuquerque with a 9-0 record, its CFP odds will be a fraction of what they are now. And if the Rebels — who are 29-5 over the past three regular seasons against opponents not named Boise State — can get past New Mexico and win out, they absolutely will be in the hunt for the Group of Six automatic CFP bid.
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