Big 10 Pick 6: Bring on the Competition

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I started the season 3-3 ATS and 5-1 SU, which I’ll take as a perfectly acceptable Week 1. Week 2 has at least a few more games that look competitive on paper, so let’s get straight to the picks.

Rutgers @ Boston College (-3.5)

Both teams lost in Week 1, but not all losses are created equal. Rutgers turned the ball over four times and was soundly beaten by UMass. BC showed signs of life behind new QB Mason McKenzie, but ultimately succumbed to a solid Cincinnati team. BC lost two offensive linemen to injury in the game and their status is up in the air. Rutgers QB Dylan Longergan (a BC transfer) also left hurt in Week 1, but with 3 Ints and a lost fumble, that might have been more than just physical. Rutgers wants to run Antwan Raymond and defend. Raymond is legit, but the defense isn’t.

BC 27 – Rutgers 20

Oregon @ Oklahoma St. (+22.5)

It took time for Dante Moore to get in gear against Boise St, but the final numbers (378 yards, 3 TDs) don’t look like a struggle. While the Ducks likely feel some trepidation about their debut, it was far better than OSU’s. Eric Morris lost his first game in Stillwater 24-10 against Tulsa. The Cowboys are mostly just last year’s North Texas team. They were physically dominated in the trenches by Tulsa and now have to face an outstanding Oregon D-Line. Moore threw for 3 TDs against OSU last year when the Ducks won 69-3. I think the point total will be lower this year, but Moore will do be better.

Oregon 48 – Oklahoma St. 14

Wake Forest @ Purdue (+3.5)

If you’re interested in rebuilding teams who wear black and gold and are traditionally better at basketball, then this is the game for you! I would say that Purdue beating Indiana St and Wake beating Akron doesn’t tell us much, but I just finished writing about teams who lost to UMass and Tulsa, so at least it tells us that much. Gio Lopez looks like a real playmaker for Jake Dickert at Wake. Purdue has lost 21 in a row against P4 opponents, and this matchup looks like one of their better opportunities to break that streak. I think Barry Odom is a better coach than last season’s 2-10 record, and my gut says Purdue, but my head is telling me Wake Forest.

Wake Forest 34 – Purdue 30

Oklahoma @ Michigan (+5.5)

If you’re a believer in playing the betting markets like stocks, you can buy the dip of Michigan this week. Every bit of Wolverines press this week has been negative, either about incompetent clock operation or QB ineffectiveness. The Sooners, meanwhile, cruised to an easy win. The question is whether last week was “Week 1 Michigan” or the “Real Michigan.” One concern is that the OL was even worse than Underwood while Oklahoma has one of the best defenses in the country. Keep in mind how good Oklahoma was until John Mateer got hurt last year. I like both defenses, but I think there’s more big-play ability in the OU offense and that will be enough to swing it.

Oklahoma 20 – Michigan 14

Mississippi St. @ Minnesota (+1.5)

Jeff Lebby has been a disappointment for two years at Mississippi St, but their 62-13 win over Louisiana-Monroe will at least raise the question of whether they are righting the ship. Minnesota has the kind of pieces PJ Fleck likes- a big, pro-style QB in Drake Lindsey and a bell-cow RB in Darius Taylor. My question is how well Minnesota’s defense will handle the Air Raid-adjacent scheme. Fleck’s defenses have generally kept offenses in front of them and tackled well, but fell off a cliff last year. The question is whether that was a sticky trend.

Minnesota 28 – MSU 24

Utah St. @ Washington (-26.5)

The Huskies don’t get punished much by Vegas for a lukewarm performance in the Apple Cup. Utah St. entered the season close to Washington St. in the Pac-12 projections, or just a hare behind. The Dawgs give an extra three points in the spread. How is that possible? Because Utah St. had a significantly worse Week 1 performance, losing to FCS Idaho St. by giving up 13 unanswered points from the late third quarter to the end. The Aggies moved the ball, but two QBs combined to throw four interceptions. Given the havoc caused by UW’s defense at all three levels last week, it’s easy to envision another game where the Dawgs end up +2 or +3 in the turnover battle. Utah St. gave up three sacks and rushed for under four yards per carry against an FCS defensive front. After what we saw from Ramzak Fruean, DCB, and company, I see lots more negative plays in the future.

If you want to argue against the Huskies covering this spread, it’s on the other side of the ball. The running back room has become an absolute MASH unit. We already knew the departure of Adam Mohammed was going to force players into bigger roles. The spring injury to Jordan Washington removed another layer of depth. With both Quaid Carr and Jayden Limar injured coming out of Week 1, the depth chart quickly gets down to players who are either specialists or walk-ons. Trey Cooley struggled in limited Week 1 duty, but he’s going to need to play a lot this week. On the other hand, it’s reasonable to expect the passing game to look better. Even within the Apple Cup, Demond Williams settle in and started to find a rhythm with Chris Lawson and Rashid Williams. If he can hit that level earlier in the game and the offensive line eliminates some of their unnecessary penalties with a week under their belt, we should see a lot more points on the board. If you tell me in a few days that Cooley looked like a viable starter and run game was not an issue, I’d believe it, but I’m going to wait to see it before I pick the Huskies to cover a four-TD spread.

Washington 34 – Utah St 10

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