Big 12 football power rankings for 2026 season, per ESPN's FPI

The college football offseason is all about coaching changes, the transfer portal and recruiting, which whets the appetite for predicting what will happen during the upcoming season.

A few months ago, we received updated SP+ rankings. This week, we have ESPN’s updated Football Power Index predicting the upcoming season. FPI is another predictive metric that lists each team’s likeliest outcomes.

Here is how ESPN describes FPI:

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.

The Big 12 should be one of the most competitive conferences in college football, and this week’s FPI release gives us another projection of how the 2026 season could shake out.

Here is each team listed by its FPI rating, along with its chances of winning the conference and/or reaching the College Football Playoff. For teams with less than a 5% chance of making the playoffs, we also added the likelihood that they would win six games, which would guarantee bowl eligibility.

16. Iowa State Cyclones

FPI Rating: -0.9 (No. 72 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 5.1-6.9

% Chance to Win Big 12: 0.5

% Chance to Make CFP: 1.0

% Chance to win six games (bowl eligibility): 41

15. West Virginia Mountaineers

FPI Rating: 0.2 (No. 66 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 5.4-6.6

% Chance to Win Big 12: 0.7

% Chance to Make CFP: 1.4

% Chance to win six games (bowl eligibility): 46.5

14. UCF Knights

FPI Rating: 2.1 (No. 57 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 6.1-5.9

% Chance to Win Big 12: 1.7

% Chance to Make CFP: 2.9

% Chance to win six games (bowl eligibility): 59.6

13. Kansas Jayhawks

FPI Rating: 2.8 (No. 55 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 6.0-6.0

% Chance to Win Big 12: 1.6

% Chance to Make CFP: 2.7

% Chance to win six games (bowl eligibility): 58.1

12. Oklahoma State Cowboys

FPI Rating: 3.3 (No. 54 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 6.0-6.1

% Chance to Win Big 12: 1.9

% Chance to Make CFP: 3.2

% Chance to win six games (bowl eligibility): 58.5

11. Cincinnati Bearcats

FPI Rating: 4.4 (No. 46 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 6.4-5.7

% Chance to Win Big 12: 2.1

% Chance to Make CFP: 4.0

% Chance to win six games (bowl eligibility): 64.9

10. Colorado Buffaloes

FPI Rating: 4.5 (No. 45 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 6.0-6.1

% Chance to Win Big 12: 2.5

% Chance to Make CFP: 4.3

% Chance to win six games (bowl eligibility): 57.2

9. Arizona State Sun Devils

FPI Rating: 4.8 (No. 44 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 6.0-6.1

% Chance to Win Big 12: 2.3

% Chance to Make CFP: 4.0

% Chance to win six games (bowl eligibility): 57.6

8. Kansas State Wildcats

FPI Rating: 5.1 (No. 41 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 7.0-5.1

% Chance to Win Big 12: 3.1

% Chance to Make CFP: 5.7

% Chance to win six games (bowl eligibility): 74.1

7. TCU Horned Frogs

FPI Rating: 6.4 (No. 38 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 6.8-5.3

% Chance to Win Big 12: 4.0

% Chance to Make CFP: 6.9

6. Baylor Bears

FPI Rating: 6.5 (No. 37 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 6.6-5.5

% Chance to Win Big 12: 3.2

% Chance to Make CFP: 6.0

Houston Cougars

FPI Rating: 7.1 (No. 35 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 7.4-4.7

% Chance to Win Big 12: 4.1

% Chance to Make CFP: 7.9

4. Arizona Wildcats

FPI Rating: 7.2 (No. 34 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 7.3-4.8

% Chance to Win Big 12: 4.2

% Chance to Make CFP: 7.8

3. Utah Utes

FPI Rating: 8.5 (No. 31 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 7.7-4.4

% Chance to Win Big 12: 5.9

% Chance to Make CFP: 11.1

2. BYU Cougars

FPI Rating: 13.1 (No. 20 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 8.7-3.6

% Chance to Win Big 12: 16.5

% Chance to Make CFP: 25.7

1. Texas Tech Red Raiders

FPI Rating: 20.0 (No. 10 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 10.8-1.8

% Chance to Win Big 12: 45.9

% Chance to Make CFP: 57.9

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This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: Big 12 football power rankings for 2026 season, per ESPN’s FPI