Coaches on the hot seat: FSU's Mike Norvell, UNC's Bill Belichick among college football bosses who need to win now
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At this time last year, the experts predicted quite a busy coaching carousel.
But even the most aggressive prognosticators couldn't have seen the onslaught of the 2025 hiring cycle: more than 30 FBS coaching transitions, including 17 in the power leagues.
Who had Brian Kelly (LSU), James Franklin (Penn State) and Sherrone Moore (Michigan) all getting fired? Or that Kyle Whittingham would be pushed aside at Utah and then land in Ann Arbor? Or that Michigan State would replace Jonathan Smith after Year 2 for Pat Fitzgerald?
Don't expect this year to be as action packed. However, we've all learned to expect the unexpected from the hiring-and-firing industry.
Our annual coaching hot seat list is assembled through conversations with those in the college administrative, search firm and agent world. It's not our opinion. It's not subjective. It relies on the expertise and knowledge from industry insiders, some of whom are already positioning themselves for a search or expecting one at a particular school.
Every cycle has a blue-blood gig or two that, if open, could create a domino effect of movement.
There are two, notably, this year: USC and Florida State.
There are eight other power league jobs on our list too. And there are plenty of candidates ready to take their place.
The pool of power conference coordinators remains a bit shallow, according to industry stakeholders. In fact, in this world of athlete revenue-sharing, administrators continue to prefer to hire a proven head coach who's managed the finances of a roster, even those at the Group of Six level.
Some of those expected to attract attention are Dan Mullen (UNLV), Jason Eck (New Mexico), Sean Lewis (San Diego State), Jason Candle (UConn), Lance Taylor (Western Michigan), Matt Entz (Fresno), Ricky Rahne (Old Dominion), Jeff Monken (Army), Tyson Helton (WKU) and GJ Kinne (Texas State).
There are plenty of accomplished, high-level coordinators too. Several are expected to receive attention for gigs in the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12, including Kane Wommack (Alabama), Arthur Smith (Ohio State), Blake Baker (LSU), Buster Faulkner (Florida), Matt Patricia (Ohio State), Charlie Weis Jr. (LSU), Glenn Schumann (Georgia), Kade Bell (Pitt), Andy Kotelnicki (Kansas), Mike Denbrock (Notre Dame), Shannon Dawson (Miami), Mike Shanahan (Indiana) and Shiel Wood (Texas Tech).
But the head coach trend is real. Of the 17 power jobs in last year's cycle, 11 of them were filled by G6 or sitting power league coaches. Five were power league coordinators and one was from the NFL.
"Head coach experience is at a premium," said one stakeholder. "The big question with a lot of these jobs is, if you fire your guy, do you have a better one lined up? It's not necessarily a good pool."
Making matters more difficult is a recent trend that many expect to continue. Coaches like Rhett Lashlee and Curt Cignetti both spurned interest from blue-blood programs to remain at SMU and Indiana. The unlimited player movement and compensation have made gigs outside of the elite more attractive. Recruiting great players is no longer contingent on historic success and big brand value.
OK, let's get to the list!
(Note: A coach's buyout amount is a range based on the timing of their potential dismissals.)
Hot Seat
Mike Norvell, Florida State
Buyout: $45-50 million
School administrators thought long and hard about dismissing Norvell last season — a 5-7 campaign that followed the 2-10 debacle of 2024. The fan uprising was loud enough that the administration released a statement in support of Norvell. But let's be real. Much of that support is derived from the cost of such a move (FSU recently spent around $400 million on facilities renovations). The buyout, at the time, was more than $50 million as part of a contract he signed after Alabama flirted with him following a 13-1 season in 2023. The schedule isn't easy. A very big game looms at home on Sept. 7 as the Noles host SMU. Two weeks later, they travel to Alabama and there's a trip to national reigning runner-up Miami in October.
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin
Buyout: $20-22 million
Fickell did wonders at Cincinnati, but he's never gotten it going in Madison, in part because the university didn't jump into NIL with both feet. Wisconsin administrators have acknowledged that fact and last year made the decision to invest in the roster instead of paying Fickell's whopping buyout. AD Chris McIntosh, the man who hired Fickell, left in an unusual move to be Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti's deputy. Former Nebraska and Miami AD Shawn Eichorst is now presiding over the department and he'll soon have a difficult decision if Fickell doesn't greatly improve his 17-21 record. We'll learn a lot about the Badgers early. They play Notre Dame at Lambeau Field on Sept. 6 — the Sunday of opening weekend.
Dave Aranda, Baylor
Buyout: $9-10 million
On what seems like a perpetual hot seat for four years now, Aranda is facing a different kind of pressure this year. He has a new boss who didn't hire him, athletic director Doug McNamee. Similar to Fickell, Aranda's stint in Waco serves as another example of a university slow to transition to the NIL world. It's caused a roller coaster of success and failure. Just look at the wins by year: 2, 12, 6, 3, 8, 5. This year, the Bears brew with confidence behind new quarterback DJ Lagway, the former highly ranked Texas recruit who seems to have experienced a rebirth in Waco after struggles at Florida. A big measuring stick comes early: Auburn in Atlanta on the first full Saturday of college football.
Mike Locksley, Maryland
Buyout: $9-10 million
An unenviable gig in the Big Ten, Locksley's run at Maryland hasn't been unimpressive. A native of the DMV area, he has mined local high schools for talent and landed solid portal players. However, his teams continue to falter when the calendar turns to October. Since 2023, Maryland is 11-2 in September and 3-19 in October and November games. AD Jim Smith, at the time six months into the gig, decided to keep Locksley around for another season despite consecutive 4-8 seasons. The pressure is on. And the schedule is tricky. A loss at UConn in Week 2 could spell eventual doom for Locksley's tenure.
Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State
Buyout: $8-10 million
A former Oklahoma and UCF coordinator, Lebby followed a two-win opening season with a five-win Year 2 that could have been so much better. The Bulldogs blew second-half leads against Texas, Florida and Tennessee during a frustrating season for all involved. Can Mississippi State secure its first winning season since Mike Leach presided over the program? Young QB Kamario Taylor gives hope to the staff and fan base, but the schedule is brutal. Check out this slate: The Bulldogs are on the road for consecutive weeks against Minnesota and South Carolina before hosting Missouri to close out September. The October slate is a gauntlet: Alabama, at LSU, Oklahoma and at Texas. Whew.
Bill Belichick, North Carolina
Buyout: $10-12 million
The Belichick experiment is still in the early phase, but the results don't bode well for the future — on and off the field. The school suspended general manager Michael Lombardi for a human resources matter and defensive coordinator Steve Belichick, Bill's son, is out with a personal matter. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels get a prime spot to kick off college football with a Week Zero game this Saturday in Ireland against TCU. The country will be watching and so will first-year athletic director Steve Newmark, who most certainly wants to see improvement and progress from Year 1. Can the Tar Heels show it? They play at Clemson and host Notre Dame, Miami and Louisville this year.
Warm Seat
Lincoln Riley, USC
Buyout: around $60 million
Riley kicked off things in LA with an 11-win campaign that included a Heisman Trophy winner. Four years later, he hasn't replicated anything close to that season and folks are beginning to wonder if he's the long-term solution to resurrect the Trojans. He hasn't finished better than fourth in the conference since 2022, has finished outside the final top 25 in two of his four seasons and has lost more league games in a four-season span (12) than USC lost in former coach Clay Helton's first five years. There are no more excuses. He's been given the resources and has a new general manager and defensive coordinator (Gary Patterson!). Without a playoff trip this year, AD Jen Cohen may finally pull the trigger despite the whopping buyout figure.
Shane Beamer, South Carolina
Buyout: $22-25 million
In five years, Beamer is three games above .500 with three winning seasons and two losing seasons. It doesn't sound great, but this is all relative. South Carolina's resources can't stack up with the likes of conference neighbors Georgia, Florida, Tennessee and Alabama. But despite the gap, Frank Beamer's son has positioned the Gamecocks as a threat to beat anyone at any time. He enters Year 6 with high expectations after keeping around star QB LaNorris Sellers. Another sub-.500 season may send AD Jeremiah Donati, hired last year, into firing mode, but can the Gamecocks get someone who will do much better?
Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati
Buyout: $6-8 million
The Bearcats improved from three to five wins to seven wins last year, a trajectory that needs to continue. Remember that Satterfield leaped to the Cincy job while his seat grew warm at Louisville. After this season, he'll have just two years on his contract — a rarity for the leader of a major college football program. The Bearcats must make a decision: extend him or dismiss him. The season opener at home against Boston College looms as incredibly important for the former App State quarterback. Cincy gets all of the Big 12's projected top programs this year. The list includes Texas Tech, Utah, Houston and BYU.
Deion Sanders, Colorado
Buyout: $26-28 million
That shine in hiring one of the biggest sports celebrities in the industry took a hit last year as the Buffaloes finished 3-9. Sanders has battled serious health issues, spends much of his offseason outside of Boulder and won just three games in 2025 — the second losing season in his three years. The nine-win campaign in 2024, led by Heisman winner Travis Hunter, seems like a distant memory. Sanders overturned the roster again with more than 50 new players. With a new AD on board, Fernando Lovo, the Buffs need to show marked improvement if Sanders plans to stick around long term. They kick off the season at Georgia Tech on Sept. 3 in a game that'll tell us plenty.
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