How will UNC’s offense look against TCU?

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Game week! Game week! Game week! Hallelujah.

Bobby Petrino isn’t Freddie Kitchens, and Freddie Kitchens isn’t Bobby Petrino. If for no other reason than that, UNC’s offense will probably have more teeth than what Tar Heel fans saw last season. If Petrino had been last season’s offensive coordinator, the results may well look very different.

So, what do we think we’ll see in the game Saturday? The game Saturday. What precious words. It takes a long off-season following a 4-8 embarrassment to fully appreciate having a game to look forward to again.

So, back to the Petrino effect. Last season, North Carolina scored 19.3 points per game, less than all the other Carolinas (South, East, West, and Coastal). East Carolina was almost two touchdowns better per game, despite a more difficult schedule. As for yards, UNC again trailed all the Carolinas — actually, trailed all but five teams in FBS — at 288.8 yards per game.

Meanwhile, here’s what Petrino did for struggling offenses he inherited at Texas AM and Arkansas. In 2022, Texas AM averaged 22.8 points and 361 yards a game, causing Jimbo Fisher to bring in Petrino and hand over play calling. Petrino in 2023 didn’t do much for yardage, which only went up 40 yards a game. But, scoring jumped by more than 10 points a game to 33.3, thanks to far more visits to the red zone and much better efficiency once they got there. As a reminder, Petrino’s two QBs that year were Max Johnson (for the first eight games) and Connor Weigman (after Johnson was injured).

Arkansas’ offense in 2023 was 98th in FEI (an efficiency metric), despite scoring 26.6 points per game. Petrino in 2024 boosted scoring modestly, by slightly more than four points per game, but yardage per game exploded from 326 to 459. First downs went from 17.3 and 108th in the country to 24.2 and 7th nationally.

So, Petrino takes over yet another forlorn offense, one in worse straights than either of the two rehabilitation projects in College Station or Fayetteville. After last week’s dismissal of TCU’s starting safety, Jacob Fields, it’s easier to imagine UNC’s offense springing some guys open over the middle for some big chunks. On the other hand, many Tar Heel fans wonder how effective starting QB Billy Edwards can be pushing the ball deep or the rebuilt offensive line can be opening holes in the running game.

The books appear to have UNC at 20 points and 327.5 yards for this upcoming game, not much different than last year’s averages. What do you think of those numbers? I’m thinking the books badly undersell how different this offense will be in 2026, so I’m going with 28 points and 425 yards for the Tar Heels’ offense in five days.

How about you?

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