College football best bets Week 3: Ole Miss, Houston, Arkansas, UNC, Alabama, Florida, Mississippi State
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College football Week 3 best bets center on LSU coach Lane Kiffin’s return to Ole Miss, but five of these seven spread picks back the underdog, including Arkansas getting more than three touchdowns at home against Georgia.
Georgia is laying 24.5 points in Fayetteville after scoring 133 points in two wins, while LSU is a 2.5-point road favorite in Oxford and Mississippi State gets 4 points at South Carolina.
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Houston (+7.5) vs. Texas Tech
- Kickoff: Friday, September 18, 8 p.m. ET, Fox
Texas Tech is the defending Big 12 champion, but the Red Raiders haven’t played like it through a 2-0 start. They needed two fourth-quarter touchdowns to beat Oregon State 35-24 last week. The Beavers also threw for more than 400 yards against a pass defense that didn’t allow a 300-yard passer in 2025. Texas Tech quarterback Will Hammond took four sacks in that game.
Houston quarterback Conner Weigman left last year’s 35-11 loss to Texas Tech with an injury in the second quarter. This time, the Cougars bring a defense that held Oregon State to 26 rushing yards on 25 carries in a 33-20 win. Texas Tech is 0-2 against the spread this season, so the 7.5 points are worth taking. Both teams have leaned on the run, making the under 52.5 the better total play.
Picks: Texas Tech 28-21, Houston +7.5, U52.5
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Georgia vs. Arkansas (+24.5)
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 19, 12 p.m. ET, ABC
Georgia beat Tennessee State 63-3 and Western Kentucky 70-20. Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton has seven touchdown passes and no interceptions. Arkansas is 1-1 under first-year coach Ryan Silverfield after a 43-10 loss at Utah. Razorbacks quarterback KJ Jackson completed 14 of 34 passes in Salt Lake City, and the offense ran for just 61 yards.
Still, 24.5 points is a big number for a Georgia team making its first road trip and playing its first SEC game. The forecast in Fayetteville calls for temperatures near 90 degrees at kickoff. Georgia coach Kirby Smart has already given backup Ryan Puglisi meaningful snaps, and a second half full of reserves could give the Hogs a path to cover. A slower second half also points to the under 54.5.
Picks: Georgia 34-10, Arkansas +24.5, U54.5
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North Carolina (+3) vs. Clemson
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 19, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney is under heavy pressure after a 51-10 loss at LSU and a 22-7 win over Georgia Southern. The Tigers rank 134th out of 138 major college teams in total offense. They’ve converted just 3 of 27 third downs. Their only touchdown drive against Georgia Southern covered 27 yards after a muffed punt.
North Carolina coach Bill Belichick has a 2-0 team allowing 6.5 points per game, and neither TCU nor East Tennessee State averaged 3 yards per carry against it. The Tar Heels haven’t won at Clemson since 2001. The program is also dealing with general manager Michael Lombardi’s resignation and defensive coordinator Steve Belichick’s medical leave. Even so, a defense this sound getting 3 points against an offense this weak is the right side, and those two units also point to the under 43.5.
Picks: UNC 23-17, UNC +3, U43.5
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Florida State vs. Alabama (-19.5)
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 19, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Alabama hosts Florida State one year after the Seminoles beat the Crimson Tide 31-17 in Tallahassee. The Tide started slow at Kentucky last week before scoring the final 32 points of a 45-17 win. The defense held the Wildcats to 1-for-14 on third downs. Florida State is 1-1 after a close loss to SMU.
Florida State quarterback Ashton Daniels and running back Ousmane Kromah lead a rushing attack that averages 208 yards per game. But the Seminoles are allowing 452 yards per game, including 351 through the air. That could give Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell his best passing day of the season. Russell threw two interceptions at Kentucky, and Alabama’s defense has returned an interception for a touchdown in each game. Extra possessions on both sides push this toward the over 48.5.
Picks: Alabama 35-15, Alabama -19.5, O48.5
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Mississippi State (+4) vs. South Carolina
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 19, 4:15 p.m. ET, SEC Network
Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor has the Bulldogs at 2-0 after a 62-13 win over Louisiana-Monroe and a 38-13 win at Minnesota. The 6-foot-4 dual threat completed 16 of 22 throws for 227 yards and three touchdowns in Minneapolis and added 86 rushing yards. Mississippi State scored touchdowns on its first four drives and outrushed the Gophers 252-13.
South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers leads a 2-0 team that beat Kent State 57-0 and Towson 45-9. Neither opponent came close to Minnesota’s level. Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby’s no-huddle offense averaged 7 yards per play on the road, and Sellers ran for 119 yards against Towson. Two quarterbacks who can break long runs make the over 58.5 the play, and 4 points is too many for the team with the better road win.
Picks: Mississippi State 30-29, Mississippi State +4, O58.5
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Florida (-2.5) vs. Auburn
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 19, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Florida and Auburn both open SEC play at 2-0 under first-year coaches. Florida coach Jon Sumrall’s team scored 118 points against Florida Atlantic and Campbell, the program’s most through two games since 2009. Auburn coach Alex Golesh beat the Gators in Gainesville last season while at South Florida. Quarterback Byrum Brown followed him to Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Auburn’s offense managed 17 points in its opening win over Baylor in Atlanta before beating Southern Miss 43-8. Florida quarterback Aaron Philo has running back Jadan Baugh and receiver Vernell Brown III around him, so the Gators have more ways to score. Both defenses have allowed just 24 points through two games. That’s why the under 53.5 makes sense in a game Florida should control by more than a field goal.
Picks: Florida 28-20, Florida -2.5, U53.5
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LSU vs. Ole Miss (Ole Miss +2.5)
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 19, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Kiffin brings a 2-0 LSU team to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium after a 51-10 win over Clemson and a 45-14 win over Louisiana Tech. The Tigers average 586 yards per game, third in the country. But LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt has thrown four interceptions, including three in the first half against Louisiana Tech.
One of those went back 100 yards for a touchdown. Leavitt is also doubtful to play, likely putting Husan Longstreet or Landen Clark under center. It’s impossible to pick a first-time starter on the road over a star like Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss.
Chambliss threw 22 touchdowns and three interceptions last year and went 23 of 26 against Charlotte in last week’s 41-9 win. The home team has won each of the last six meetings, and Ole Miss is 4-0 against the spread as a home underdog since 2021. LSU defensive end Princewill Umanmielen led Ole Miss with nine sacks last year and already has five sacks for the Tigers. LSU is allowing only 18.5 rushing yards per game, which keeps this game under 57.5 even with Chambliss making enough plays to win.
Picks: Ole Miss 20-17, Ole Miss +2.5, U57.5
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