Florida vs Missouri Prediction: Can Anyone Slow Down the Gators?
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How fired up are Florida fans over how things are going since Jon Sumrall was hired? The team is now No. 8 in the two major polls after a fun 52-28 win over Ole Miss for the program’s first 4-0 start since 2019.
Missouri (3-1) lost a 31-24 thriller at Mississippi State last week, but it’s good enough to slow down the Gator steamroller. The Tigers won each of their first three games by double-digits, but they’ll have to put the offense into high gear to pull this off.
Florida vs Missouri: Quick Hits
- The home side has won the last four meetings since 2019. Mizzou won 33-31 in 2023.
- The Tigers host Texas A&M next week, and then they’re off to Ole Miss.
- Florida gets South Carolina next week in Gainesville, and then it’s on – at Texas, Georgia.
How To Watch Florida vs Missouri
Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
Game Time: 3:30 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO
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Why Florida Will Win
This might be the game when Florida quarterback Aaron Philo carries the water after SEC-leading rusher Jadan Baugh dominated over the first four games.
Philo has been wonderful so far, hitting 72% of his passes and averaging a monstrous 14.6 yards per completion. Missouri’s run defense has been outstanding so far, but it got ripped apart by Mississippi State star Kamario Taylor, who threw for 360 yards and three scores in the Bulldog win.
Why Missouri Will Win
Missouri has the pass rush to bother Philo. The Florida offensive front is one of the best in the nation in pass protection, but that’s partly because defenses have worked so hard to stop Baugh that they haven’t been able to go full bore into the backfield. There might have been issues against Mississippi State last week, but the Tigers got to Taylor four times.
Mizzou quarterback Austin Simmons hasn’t been airtight accurate over the last two weeks, but he threw for close to 300 yards with three scores against MSU, and he has yet to throw a pick. Florida is allowing 248 yards per game.
Florida vs Missouri Prediction, Betting Lines
This should be a back-and-forth fight. Each defense will do its best to take over and make big things happen, but each side will be flailing with both passing games going off.
The difference will be on the ground. Missouri’s run defense has been strong so far, but Baugh and the Gators will have the balance to take just enough pressure off Philo to keep scoring.
Florida 34, Missouri 27
Latest Consensus Line: Florida -5.5, o/u: 57.5
ATS Confidence (out of 5): 3
Must See Rating (out of 5): 4
Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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