Florida vs Missouri Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

The hangover after a big win is real in College Football and the latest example could be the #8 Florida Gators (4-0) when they travel to #25 Missouri (3-1). Florida is coming off a 52-28 win over #4 Ole Miss a week after the Rebels beat LSU in a top 10 matchup, so the Gators know more than anyone they need to be locked in. Missouri is coming off a 31-24 loss to #24 Mississippi State where they held the lead entering the fourth quarter. The spread for this game is 5.5 points in favor of Florida and as you guessed it, most of the money is coming in on the top-10 ranked Gators.

Florida went belt to butt on Ole Miss. A 52-28 spanking ignited a Heisman campaign for Jadan Baugh and gave the world what they were looking for. After years falling short of expectations, the Gators look like they are going to live up to them. Baugh had 142 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 29 carries and Duke Clark added 126 yards and a score on 12 attempts. The Gators as a team ran for 302 yards and six touchdowns versus Ole Miss. Florida's defense held Ole Miss to 4-of-11 on third downs, two turnovers, and four TFL.

Missouri could have started 4-0, but blew a 24-17 lead entering the fourth quarter against Mississippi State. The Tigers were are without Ahmad Hardy while he's recovering from a gunshot wound, so Austin Simmons has been slinging for Mizzou. Simmons threw for 295 yards and went 23-of-39 (59%) for three touchdowns and no interceptions. He's tossed at least 252 yards in three out of four games and had at least three touchdown passes. Cayden Lee is one of those recipients. Lee is coming off 11 catches for 156 yards and two touchdowns. Jamal Roberts had a three-game touchdown streak snapped against Mississippi State and his two-game 100-yard streak as he finished with 95.

Let’s dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.

Game Details and How to Watch Florida vs Missouri

• Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
• Time: 3:30 PM Eastern
• Site: Memorial Stadium
• City: Columbia, MO
• TV/Streaming: ABC

Game Odds for Florida vs Missouri

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Florida Gators (-205), Missouri Tigers (+170)
• Spread: Florida -5.5 (-105)
• Total: 56.5 points

#8 Florida Gators

Head Coach: Jon Sumrall
2026 Record: 4-0 (2-0)
Offensive Points Per Game: 52.5 (2nd)
Defensive Points Per Game: 22.7 (69th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 42nd
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 13th

The Florida Gators Offense:

The Florida Gators ran the skin of the football last week versus Ole Miss. As a team, Florida reached 302 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 53 carries (5.7 ypc). Jadan Baugh (142 yds, 3 TDs) and Duke Clark (126 yards, 1 TD) accounted for 88% of Florida's yards and 46.1% of their points on Saturday. The offense averages the second-most points in the country (52.5) as they've scored at least 44 points in every game. Florida ranks 11th in rushing yards per game (260.0) and top 10 in both rushing success and run blocking success.

Florida Player to Watch on Offense: RB Jadan Baugh

Jadan Baugh has joined the Heisman conversation and solidified himself as the top running back in the country after a dominant effort against Ole Miss. Baugh has opened the season with four-straight games of 100-plus rushing yards and at least two touchdowns! Dating back to the 2025 finale, or over the past five games, Baugh has 866 rushing yards on 121 carries and 13 touchdowns! That's 7.1 yard per carry and 173.2 rushing yards per game. Baugh ran for 142 yards and three touchdowns versus Ole Miss on a season-high 29 carries. I'd expect another 20-plus carries from Baugh.

The Florida Gators Defense:

Against Auburn and Ole Miss, the Gators defense forced three combined turnovers, seven sacks, and 13 tackles for loss. However, Florida has allowed 39 and 28 points in those contests, plus 230 rushing yards per game. The Gators have been one the most penalized teams as well, posting 24 for 240 yards in the last two games. Florida's 35 penalties is tied for 15th-most in the country and the 4th-most yards at 357.

Florida Player to Watch on Defense: LB Jayden Woods

Jayden Woods now has three-straight games with at least a half-sack for the Gators as he leads the team with 4.5 on the season. Woods had 2.5 sacks at Auburn and another versus Ole Miss last week to go along with 10 combined tackles. Woods forced and recovered a fumble versus the Rebels last week and tallied two TFL after 3.5 versus Auburn.

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Missouri Tigers

Head Coach: Eli Drinkwitz
2026 Record: 3-1 (0-1)
Offensive Points Per Game: 35.8 (43rd)
Defensive Points Per Game: 19.2 (43rd)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 61st
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 3rd

The Missouri Tigers Offense:

Missouri's offense went from 54 to 38 to 27 to 24 points over their first four games. The competition for the Tigers has increased each game, which is why the scoring has gone down. Missouri recorded its fewest rushing yards (119) and worst yards per rush (3.4) numbers on the season and now face a Florida defense that sees an outstanding run game in practice every day. With star RB Ahmad Hardy likely to miss another week recovering from a gunshot wound, Mizzou could be relying on the pass game heavy script against Florida.

Missouri to Watch on Offense: QB Austin Simmons

Last week, Missouri had to throw the ball as they struggled on the ground versus Mississippi State. Austin Simmons threw for 295 yards on 23-of-39 (59%) and had three touchdowns to zero turnovers. Simmons has a 11-0 TD to INT ratio this season and proving his start with Ole Miss last year (4 TDs, 5 INT) was a fluke before he got injured.

The Missouri Defense:

Missouri's defense tried its best to contain Kamario Taylor, but it's easier said than done. The Tigers were outgained 499-414 in yards and penalized eight times for 94 yards. Missouri gave up 360 yards passing to Taylor and couldn't stop the Bulldogs on multiple third and fourth downs in the fourth quarter. Missouri has the 46th-ranked rush success on defense and ranks 99th in tackling, which could be an issue with Florida.

Missouri Player to Watch on Defense: EDGE Daeden Hopkins

After only appearing in two games as a freshman and grabbing seven tackles and a 0.5 sack, Daeden Hopkins is off to a great start as a sophomore. Hopkins has a team-high six sacks through four games with two forced fumbles, 14 tackles, and 6.5 tackles for loss. The 6-foot-6 and 250 lbs edge rusher will be tasked with getting to Aaron Philo, which hasn't been easy. The Florida quarterback has only been sacked twice all season.

Florida and Missouri Stats, Betting Trends

• Missouri is 1-3 ATS and 2-2 on the total
• Florida is 3-1 ATS and 3-1 to the Over
• Missouri is 0-2 ATS at home and 1-1 on the total
• Florida is 1-0 ATS and 1-0 to the Over on the road
• The Tigers are 6-3-1 ATS as a home underdog since 2021
• The Tigers are 6-4 to the Over as a home underdog since 2021
• The Gators are 4-7 ATS as a road favorite since 2021 and 7-4 to the Over
• The Tigers are 0-5-1 ATS versus ranked opponents since the start of last season and 4-2 to the Under
• The Gators are 4-4 ATS and 4-4 on the total versus ranked opponents since the start of last season

Rotoworld Best Bets

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) likes live betting more than any pre-flop action:

"This is a tough spot. Missouri between last season and this year are 0-5-1 ATS versus ranked opponents, while Florida is surging as a team and coming off a win against #4 Ole Miss. Florida was in this position last week. The Gators beat Ole Miss after the Rebels came off a huge win versus LSU and were in a letdown spot. Now, Florida is in the letdown spot as they go to Missouri. Sharp bettors will be on Missouri and public bettors will be on Florida. I'd rather live bet and see how this game goes."

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