Murray State vs Oklahoma State Prediction, Pick, College Football Odds for Saturday, Sept. 19

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The Murray State Racers take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Stillwater, OK. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Oklahoma State is favored by -55.5 points on the spread. The total is set at 70.5 points.

Here’s my Murray State vs. Oklahoma State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 19, 2026.

My Oklahoma State vs. Murray State best bet is on the over total points after the first half. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page. For more picks, be sure to download the Action Network app.

Murray State vs Oklahoma State Odds

• Murray State vs Oklahoma State point spread: Oklahoma State -55.5 (-110), Murray State +55.5 (-110)
• Murray State vs Oklahoma State over/under: 70.5 (-114o / -106u)
• Murray State vs Oklahoma State moneyline: Murray State +8000

Murray State decided in 2022 to move all sports to the Missouri Valley Conference, which was a move primarily driven by the success of its college basketball program.

The Racers struggled for years in the OVC in football, and it’s virtually impossible to foresee this group ever being anything more than a bottom-three level team in a league in which Murray State has gone 2-22 in over the last three years.

Head coach Jody Wright started his rebuild by signing 48 incoming freshmen in 2024, so this is still a young football team made up primarily of overlooked high school players.

Murray State struggled with Eastern Illinois and Middle Tennessee State in its first two games but did notch a win last week against Valparaiso of the Pioneer Football League, which is an FCS league that doesn’t offer athletic scholarships.

The secondary struggled containing the Valpo passing game as four explosive passes were given up as part of the 249 passing yards that were surrendered.

Against scholarship level competition, the defense has been unable to stop the run game as the Racers have given up 6.7 yards per carry on the ground in the first two weeks.

I wouldn’t expect a tremendous amount of pressure to be provided by the Murray State defensive line this week, which means the explosive plays should be found frequently for Oklahoma State’s offense.

The Racers are dealing with injury at quarterback as starter Collin Shannon left last week’s contest and was replaced by backup Jim Ogle, who’s taken over in each of the last two contests.

Ogle completed 62% of his passes for 191 yards, but I would expect him to struggle on the road in Stillwater on Saturday.

The Racers has been balanced on offense, but the ground game hasn’t been overly successful even against weaker FCS defenses.

Tyrell Campbell has been a bright spot at running back for the Racers while averaging 7.1 yards per carry with 213 rushing yards this season. He did rip a few big runs against Middle Tennessee State and Valpo, but it’ll be a different task this week on the road against Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma State has been the talk of college football, starting this offseason. Hype was met with disappointment in the opener as the Cowboys dropped their first game against Tulsa and came into the showdown with Oregon listed as 24-point underdogs.

The Pokes outgained Oregon by nearly 300 yards, and we saw the offense much more closely resemble the level of productivity we expected with the crew coming over from North Texas.

Drew Mestemaker threw the ball very well, the ground game was effective and the receivers made incredible plays all game against the Ducks. Caleb Hawkins had 110 rushing yards, Wyatt Young caught five passes for 121 yards and several others shined as the offense put up 554 yards.

You could argue that Oklahoma State left 14 points out there on the field, and that it should’ve won this game going away. The improvement from the offensive line to allow just one tackle-for-loss and zero sacks was the most impressive part of the performance.

The defense played really well against Oregon, which struggled all game to run the ball. Oklahoma State didn’t allow an explosive rushing play defensively in 30 attempts against them, and the Pokes did a great job disguising the coverages to rattle Dante Moore, who was sacked four times.

This defense should be able to provide pressure in the backfield against Murray State and force quarterback Ogle to throw earlier than desired, which will result in turnovers, tipped passes and quick possessions.

This line opened with Oklahoma State a decided favorite of 55.5 points with a total set at 70.5. The first half over is set at 41.5 and I’m going to take the over for the first half.

This Oklahoma State offense improved dramatically from the season opener to last week, and it shouldn’t take long to get this offense rolling in this game. Eric Morris wants to play fast, register explosive chunk plays and put points on the scoreboard.

I fully expect the Pokes to score on every possession in the first half of this game, with many of the possessions being “quick-strike” in nature.

The Cowboys will gash Murray State both through the air and on the ground, and while the red zone performance has been poor so far this season, I fully expect the Pokes to cash in this area this week.

Murray State gave up 8.25 yards per play against Middle Tennessee State two weeks ago and just doesn’t have the defensive talent to procure stops and get the Cowboys off the field.

Murray State doesn’t have the offensive talent to stack successful plays together and methodically move the ball down the field using 8-10 play drives.

The Racers are going to have to take some deep shots in this game, and if the Racers get down around the red zone, a field goal is likely not an option as Murray State has an unreliable field goal operation with a kicker who’s missed two short field goals already this year.

If Murray State isn’t connecting on the deep, explosive plays, the possessions are going to end quickly and the Racers will be punting back to Oklahoma State, leaving the Cowboys with short fields.

Punter Spencer Ashby is only averaging 39.5 yards per punt, and in this environment, I would expect a shank or two, which will really set Oklahoma State up with great field position.

It’s hard to expect Oklahoma State to play a full 60-minute game coming off the Oregon win and with a conference road game on deck, but I fully expect the full-court press from this offense in the first half.

We should see short fields, big plays and a ton of points for Oklahoma State in the first half.

Pick: Over 41.5 1H

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