Ole Miss vs LSU: A Magnolia Bowl Preview

It’s a matchup roughly nine months in the making, but at long last, we’ve finally made it. Week three of the college football season gives us Ole Miss vs. LSU, and this year it’s a Magnolia Bowl with massive storylines. Number one is obviously former Rebel head coach Lane Kiffin returning to Oxford as the head coach of the Tigers, following his unceremonious departure in late November of last year. Expect Ole Miss fans to be less than hospitable to their former coach.

Then there’s the potential College Football Playoff implications. Both of these teams have stacked rosters and hopes of making this year’s playoff. A win Saturday would be a huge step in the right direction.

That being said, who has the edge, and what can we expect from both sides?

The opposite of what we’re used to seeing with Kiffin-led teams, LSU’s key to this one is defense. Defensive coordinator Blake Baker is one of the best in the sport, and likely a soon-to-be head coach.

But now his defense goes up against an Ole Miss offense with two possible Heisman candidates in Trinidad Chambliss andKewan Lacy. And while the Rebel offense hasn’t moved at breakneck speed this season, they’ve still shown the efficiency and explosiveness that we’ve all grown accustomed to seeing. If Princewill Umanmielen, Whit Weeks, and the rest of the Tiger defense can get into the backfield, slowing down the run and getting pressure on Chambliss, they’ll be in good shape. The problem is that’s easier said than done.

Then there’s the offensive side of the ball, and a question of who plays quarterback this weekend. We all assume it will be Sam Leavitt, but with him being currently listed as doubtful, no one knows for sure. Is Leavitt legitimately injured, or is this another of Kiffin’s well-known efforts at keeping things exciting?

Against a Rebel defense that has had problems this year, LSU is going to have to take shots downfield and see if they can force a few big plays by way of busted coverages in the secondary. That’s the weakest part of the Ole Miss defense and the unit most susceptible to mistakes. Knowing that the Rebels’ front seven is the strongest part of the defense and does a decent job of stopping the run, expect Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr. to attack through the air early to see if they can open run lanes as the game progresses, both from the running backs, as well as designed quarterback carries.

The Rebels have won 13 straight at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, but they’re facing a huge test if they want to extend that streak to 14.

For Ole Miss, it’ll have to start with defense. So far this season, they’ve been less than stellar. But with Antonio Kite and Sharif Denson both expected back, things should improve down the stretch. They’re expected to face a quarterback in Sam Leavitt who has been turnover-prone this season. Last week in a win over Louisiana Tech, Leavitt threw three interceptions in the first half. For the Rebels, that means they have to find a way to make Leavitt beat you with his arm. Keep him from escaping the pocket, and make him make accurate throws in tight windows. If they can do that, they put a dent in the Tigers’ offense.

Then there’s the offense. Starting off, Chambliss has to make smart decisions and be accurate with the football. If he can get the ball to playmakers like Deuce Alexander and Horatio Fields on the outside, it could free up space for Lacy to find openings up the middle.

Then there’s the Rebel offensive line. While they’ve been pretty good in pass protection this season, this is going to be their toughest test yet. As for run blocking, they’ve struggled at times to get to the next level, especially with speed, which will definitely have to improve if they want to succeed running the ball against the Tigers.

This just feels like a game that’s going to come down to defensive execution. Both offenses are likely going to have some success, which brings this down to which defense can make a timely stop when it’s most needed. And so far this season, the answer to that question has been LSU. Until we see something from the Rebels to prove otherwise, that has to be the way we lean in this matchup.

Both rosters are loaded on both sides of the ball, but the Ole Miss defense has looked extremely shaky so far this year. So while the atmosphere surrounding Oxford should help the Rebels, as it’s going to be a madhouse, take Kiffin and the Tigers to ultimately leave with a massive road win in what should be a wildly exciting, close, tense matchup.