Projected Third College Football Playoff Top 25 Rankings

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Will there really be an invasion of Group of Five programs battling it out among the bottom of the latest College Football Playoff Top 25? 

With Louisville (20), Iowa (21), Pitt (22), USF (24), and Cincinnati (25) all losing, there should be several huge changes and new teams coming into the mix.

The biggest question – who’s the highest Group of Five team going to be?

Here’s our call for what the next round of College Football Playoff rankings will be on Tuesday night. | @PeteFiutak

Which Group of Five Team Will Lead the CFP Race?

The projected final regular-season records factor in our predicted wins or losses in conference championships.

25 Iowa Hawkeyes

Last Week CFP Ranking: 21
Record: 6-4
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 8-4
Best Win: Minnesota 25-24
Worst Loss: Iowa State 16-13

This could easily be a Group of Five team here, like Tulane, but there’s a chance the committee is cool with Iowa’s four losses to Iowa State, Indiana, Oregon, and USC all being tight.

There isn’t a great win – Minnesota? – but at least it plays like one of the 25 best teams in the country.

24 Navy Midshipmen

Last Week CFP Ranking: Not Ranked
Record: 8-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-3
Best Win: South Florida 41-38
Worst Loss: North Texas 31-17

USF was the No. 24 team in last week’s CFP rankings, and it was the only Group of Five team in the top 25.

Navy lost to Notre Dame and North Texas, and it had absolutely zero wins of any substance before Saturday – seriously, none of the teams it beat are remotely close to going to a bowl game, and then … bam. It took out USF.

23 Missouri Tigers

Last Week CFP Ranking: Not Ranked
Record: 7-3
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 8-4
Best Win: South Carolina 29-20
Worst Loss: Vanderbilt 17-10

The Tigers have seven wins, and all of them were against teams that will finish with a losing season. Here we go, though … win at Oklahoma, and the love will come pouring in.

22 James Madison Dukes

Last Week CFP Ranking: Not Ranked
Record: 9-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 12-1
Best Win: Ole Dominion 63-27
Worst Loss: Louisville 28-14

There’s a massive problem with where the CFP will end up putting James Madison. Yeah, it’s good, but 1) it’s loss was to Louisville by two touchdowns, and 2) the Dukes have beat NOBODY.

The Sun Belt is nowhere near as good as the American Conference, so, best guess …

21 North Texas Mean Green

Last Week CFP Ranking: Unranked
Record: 9-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 12-1
Best Win: Navy 31-17
Worst Loss: USF 63-36

The committee will have to make a massive call in a big hurry when it comes to what it believes, because if James Madison is here, that’s it. It’s going to rip through everyone else in the Sun Belt and get in without a restaurant-quality win.

North Texas just beat Navy a few weeks ago. At the moment, it needs to be the highest-ranked American Conference team.

20 Tennessee Volunteers

Last Week CFP Ranking: 23
Record: 6-3
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Mississippi State 41-34
Worst Loss: Oklahoma 33-27

It’s the “fine, whatever” moment in the CFP rankings – this is all based on good losses to Oklahoma, Georgia, and Alabama.

The committee won’t bump up Iowa, Pitt, or Louisville after their respective losses, so even though there are almost no wins of note, Tennessee will move up.

19 Virginia Cavaliers

Last Week CFP Ranking: 19
Record: 9-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-3
Best Win: Louisville 30-27
Worst Loss: Wake Forest 13-6

It’ll probably be lost a bit in the process, but Virginia was fantastic against Duke. Now, the loss to Wake Forest seems all about losing quarterback Chandler Morris early on. It’s in the ACC Championship driver’s seat with only Virginia Tech to go.

18 Michigan Wolverines

Last Week CFP Ranking: 18
Record: 8-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Washington 24-7
Worst Loss: USC 31-13

All of a sudden, the losses to USC and Oklahoma don’t seem so bad. There isn’t an amazing win, but get by Maryland, and the Wolverines have a one-shot deal against Ohio State to get into the CFP.

17 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Last Week CFP Ranking: 16
Record: 9-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-3
Best Win: Wake Forest 30-29
Worst Loss: NC State 48-36

It’s not a good look to need to work so hard to get by Boston College, but for now, 9-1 keeps the Yellow Jackets around here.

16 Vanderbilt Commodores

Last Week CFP Ranking: 14
Record: 8-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Missouri 17-10
Worst Loss: Texas 34-31

This is a bit of wishcasting, hoping the committee gets this right and drops the Commodores at least a little bit.

At this point, Vanderbilt has done nothing. Beating Missouri and LSU is fine, but whatever, and it has to be behind …

15 Texas Longhorns

Last Week CFP Ranking: 11
Record: 7-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 8-4
Best Win: Oklahoma 23-6
Worst Loss: Florida 29-21

It was a loss on the road to a killer Georgia team. It’s okay. The loss at Florida now looks awful, and the CFP spot should be gone with three losses, but if the committee gets this right, here’s the hard floor, because it has to be ahead of Vanderbilt.

14 USC Trojans

Last Week CFP Ranking: 17
Record: 8-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Michigan 45-31
Worst Loss: Illinois 34-32

There are two ways this can go. 1) The committee can wait and see what happens at Oregon next week, or 2) the wins over Michigan and Iowa start to carry more weight. At least for this week, it’ll be the former.

13 Miami Hurricanes

Last Week CFP Ranking: 15
Record: 7-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: Notre Dame 27-24
Worst Loss: SMU 26-20

The win over Notre Dame will have more and more juice as the weeks go by. Very quickly, the committee will not to do a much harder look at the Hurricanes after ranking them too low – and Notre Dame too high – from the start.

Miami just destroyed an NC State that has a few key wins over teams in the CFP top 25.

12 Utah Utes

Last Week CFP Ranking: 13
Record: 8-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: Cincinnati 45-10
Worst Loss: Texas Tech 34-10

Slowly creeping back into the picture, there’s a hard ceiling on how high the Utes can go unless BYU or Texas Tech loses their final two games. They’re playing great, but they will probably be the second team on the outside looking in.

11 Alabama Crimson Tide

Last Week CFP Ranking: 4
Record: 8-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-3
Best Win: Georgia 24-21
Worst Loss: Florida State 31-17

This ranking becomes everything to the rest of the College Football Playoff chase. If the committee puts the Tide any lower than this, there’s a huge problem for the Tide – it will then be SEC Championship or bust.

The wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee will still carry plenty of weight, but it’ll be the story of Tuesday night if it’s behind …

10 BYU Cougars

Last Week CFP Ranking: 12
Record: 9-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-2
Best Win: Utah 24-21
Worst Loss: Texas Tech 29-7

Very soon, America will need to have a deep discussion about BYU. If it beats Cincinnati and UCF to go 11-1 going into the Big 12 Championship, and its second loss – if it loses – is to Texas Tech, who gets left out? Notre Dame? Alabama? This will get interesting.

9 Oklahoma Sooners

Last Week CFP Ranking: 11
Record: 8-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: Alabama 23-21
Worst Loss: Texas 23-6

This is where the committee starts to use nuance. If it does it right, it rationalizes the loss to Texas because OU John Mateer wasn’t 100%. The other loss to Ole Miss was a cost-of-doing-business day in the SEC. There’s a chance the Sooners go up as high as 7 after dropping Bama.

8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Last Week CFP Ranking: 9
Record: 8-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: USC 34-24
Worst Loss: Miami 27-24

The Oklahoma win over Alabama doesn’t help – that just adds another team into the crowded CFP mix. However, with USC beating Iowa, and Navy taking down USF, all of a sudden, the Irish resume loaded with blowout wins is looking better.

7 Oregon Ducks

Last Week CFP Ranking: 8
Record: 9-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Best Win: Iowa 18-16
Worst Loss: Indiana 30-20

Remember, the College Football Playoff doesn’t watch everything. So when there’s a dominant performance like what the Ducks did to Minnesota on a Friday night, it sticks.

6 Ole Miss Rebels

Last Week CFP Ranking: 7
Record: 10-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Best Win: Oklahoma 34-26
Worst Loss: Georgia 43-35

That was a bit more of a fight against Florida than it should’ve been. The team turned it on when it had to in the 34-24 win. Beat Mississippi State in a few weeks, enjoy a home CFP game. 

5 Texas Tech Red Raiders

Last Week CFP Ranking: 6
Record: 9-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 12-1
Best Win: BYU 29-7
Worst Loss: Arizona State 26-22

Don’t worry about where the ranking is for the next few weeks. If Texas Tech wins out as the 12-1 Big 12 champ, it’ll be the 3 seed.

4 Georgia Bulldogs

Last Week CFP Ranking: 5
Record: 9-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Best Win: Ole Miss 43-35
Worst Loss: Alabama 24-21

If we’re really doing this right, based on who among the top teams is playing the best right now, Georgia is close. It’s all coming together at just the right time. The Alabama loss was close enough to make the Dawgs the easy top one-loss team.

3 Texas A&M Aggies

Last Week CFP Ranking: 3
Record: 10-0
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 13-0
Best Win: Notre Dame 41-40
Worst Performance: South Carolina 31-30

The comeback win over the Gamecocks was a massive deal. It kept them in the SEC title hunt, and for all intents and purposes, locked in a CFP spot with Samford up next.

2 Indiana Hoosiers

Last Week CFP Ranking: 2
Record: 11-0
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 12-1
Best Win: Oregon 30-20
Worst Performance: Penn State 27-24

If the committee didn’t knock the Hoosiers down a peg after the close call against Penn State, it’s sure not going to do it after blowing away Wisconsin.

1 Ohio State Buckeyes

Last Week CFP Ranking: 1
Record: 10-0
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 13-0
Best Win: Texas 14-7
Worst Performance: Washington 24-6

It would be nice to have a good win again at some point, but the No. 1 spot is solidified more than ever now.

Related: Notre Dame, Miami, or a Big 12 Team? Who Did Oklahoma Knock Out of the CFP?

This story was originally reported by College Football News on Nov 16, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football Playoff section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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