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For something based in logic and absolutes, sometimes math makes no sense.

Nebraska outgained the Ducks. They had ten 3rd down conversions to Indiana’s one. The Huskers outrushed Indiana by a margin of 2-to-1. They had almost twice the number of first downs as the visitors.

But in the end, the Hoosiers had the only math that mattered: 20 points to 17.

And it all came down to three plays.

Those three plays, all passes, totaled 162 yards. Practically half of all of Indiana’s offense. But they each either created or led to scores.

The first happened on the second offensive snap for Indiana. Josh Hoover ran an RPO fake, Nebraska’s Andrew Marshall bit on the fake and Hoover lobbed a deep sideline shot to Charlie Becker for a 43-yard gain to the Nebraska 31. The Blackshirt defense stiffened, as they would do most of the afternoon, and a field goal tied the score at 3 after each team possessed the ball.

It would take three quarters before Play #2. In that time, Nebraska dominated play. Possessed the ball forever. Took the lead on a brilliantly drawn-up and executed counter sweep to Nyziah Hunter. But Nebraska should have been up more than 10-3 at halftime. A well-executed four-minute drive should have resulted in at least three points, but Kyle Cunanan’s field goal bled wide right at the end of the first half.

Even though Indiana rallied for an opening drive field goal in the third quarter to cut the deficit to 10-6, Nebraska still controlled play. The Hoosiers' vaunted running game was stuffed and Hoover wasn’t accurate enough, nor was the Indiana offense diverse enough to gain any momentum.

Then, at the start of the fourth quarter, the moment. Anthony Colandrea, who legs have been the most dangerous threat the Nebraska offense has had the last three weeks, found an opening, snaked his way from west to east, found the edge, found former Husker-turned-podcaster Will Compton (whom he gestured towards at the 5-yard line) and entered the north endzone to the delirium of the 80,000 Husker fans.

17-6 Nebraska. Less than one quarter to go. It was happening!

Until Play #2.

There was only a FOX television break and a kickoff’s worth of time for Husker fans to embrace joy. On the first play back from kickoff, Hoover zipped a pass into a well-timed window; Nick Marsh had the angle, Victor Evans was too far inside, Caleb Benning had bitten on the RPO action and 75 yards later it was a ballgame again.

Not even a gift roughing the passer penalty on the ensuing Nebraska drive could give the Huskers momentum again; they punted to Indiana and soon it would be time for Play #3.

This one was a stroke of brilliance. With IU facing 4th and 1 at the Nebraska 44, they lined up tight, selling a run. Nebraska bought it. It was fool’s gold. Both Marsh and Becker leaked behind the loaded box, both wide open. It was Marsh who got the ball again and a 44-yard touchdown that gave Indiana their first lead of the game. Then, to compound the folly, Matt Rhule used one of his three valuable timeouts when Indiana lined up to go for two. It stuns me that teams aren’t ready in these situations. Yeah, I know it is a quick change; I know the TD was probably shocking, but football is full of these moments and to not be ready for the likelihood that a team down five is likely going for two to make it a 3 point game is poor game management. Timeouts are just too valuable to waste like this.

Of course, then Curt Cignetti sent out the PAT unit and kicked, also a highly questionable moment. This was not a well-managed game on either sideline.

Nebraska got two more cracks in the last 7:00, but another questionable decision by Matt Rhule to go for it in their own territory with over 4:00 to go, a two-minute warning and two timeouts left meant Nebraska would have no field position with which to work.

The dream was dashed. The ten-year losing streak to AP Top 25 teams extended to 31 games, and again Husker fans were left to wonder “what if” and “when?”

N’SIDE THE NUMBERS

Hold a team to 65 yards rushing and that should be enough to win. It wasn’t. It was the fewest rushing yards allowed by a Nebraska defense in a loss since the 2024 Iowa game – another inexplicable loss. The 2.95 yards per carry was offset by Indiana’s 11.9 yards per pass attempt. In a game of statistical oddities, the Hoosiers joined 2015 Southern Miss as the only teams in the last 22 years to rush for under 3.0 YPC but still exceed 7.0 yards per play versus Nebraska. It’s the first time in 2026 the Blackshirts allowed 7.0 YPP, a mark that is almost sure defeat for Rhule (1-10) and Nebraska (12-47 since joining the B1G.)

In addition to the incredible 31-game ranked losing streak, Nebraska also lost A ONE-SCORE GAME! This makes the Huskers 7-13 under Rhule in one-score contests and Nebraska just 11-29 in this decade. Here’s a look at the decade-by-decade record in one-score games since the start of the Osborne era.

• 1973-79 15-9-2
• 1980s 12-13
• 1990s 15-5-1
• 2000s 17-17
• 2010s 25-27
• 2020s 11-29
• SINCE 1973 95-100-3

Numbers That Might Only Interest Me

Then there is the discrepancy in plays. Nebraska possessed the ball for almost 40 of 60 minutes and ran 83 plays to Indiana’s 44. The 39-play difference is tied for the second-largest play margin since 2004, the other being another NU loss (28-20 to undefeated Iowa in 2015). The list of all games since 2004 of +30 or more – the losses are a rogues’ gallery of painful Husker defeats of the 21st century: Record 10-6.

Red Zone Efficiency

In a game decided by three points, it was Nebraska’s lone failure in the red zone that was the difference. Late in the first half, NU got to the Indiana 17, but a penalty and Cunanan’s poor kick cost the Huskers a two-score lead going into halftime. Only 10 points total on three red zone trips.

Turnover Margin

Technically, the Huskers were -1, but Anthony Colandrea’s “arm punt” heave on 3rd and long was better than a kick, as Indiana would start at their own two-yard line. Despite having the field tilted in their favor in the third quarter, Nebraska would not score another costly missed opportunity.

Colandrea Offensive Rate

In terms of yards gained rushing, Colandrea led the team in rushing for the third straight game. But because the 48 yards in sacks come off that total, Colandrea ends up with 47 net rushing yards (2nd behind Jamal Rule’s 53). Add the 263 yards passing and Colandrea accounted for 310 of Nebraska’s 391 total yards, a season-high 79.3% of the Huskers' offense.

Season total: Colandrea 1701 total yards; Nebraska 2769 total yards = 61.4% Colandrea offensive rate. Last three weeks: 934 of 1207 = 77.4%.

Point Spread Differential

After sitting at +7.5 all week, the closing line from Covers.com was +8.5, meaning another ATS win for Nebraska (yea!) and a total spread differential of +50 through six games. At the halfway point of the season, Nebraska is on pace for their best per-game spread differential in at least 30 years.

HELMET STICKERS

Anthony Colandrea

His 38-yard touchdown run was close to becoming the stuff of legend had the Huskers held on. There is no question that his mobility and moxie are the biggest difference-makers between this year’s offense and last year’s. The hope is he can remain healthy because this offense is dramatically different and lesser without him.

Andrew Marshall

He had one mistake, biting on the RPO and allowing Charlie Becker behind him for 43 yards. But after that, Becker had six more targets and only two more catches for 9 yards. I thought, and hoped, that IU would test Marshall more and that by doing so would lead to a possible turnover. They never really did. But as a result, it quieted one of the best receivers in college football. Sadly, there weren’t two of him because Nick Marsh torched the Huskers for 187 yards away from Marshall’s blanket coverage.

Archie Wilson

Second week in a row. Sure, the wind was at his back on his 60-yard punt in the second quarter, but he finally gave his Aussie Rules Football style a chance to work for him by kicking away from the returner and allowing the ball to bounce out of bounds at the IU 13. He also uncorked a great punt from mid-field that was killed after a great play at the one-foot line. His third punt went 68 yards and into the end zone but was still a net of 48 yards.

PLAYOFF WATCH

Yeah, you read this right. The B1G will get at least a couple of teams into the postseason dance whose names are not “Ohio State.”

UCLA’s upset win at Oregon and Iowa’s domination of Washington put these two in the passenger seats on the B1G Playoff Express. The Bruins are projected to win every game remaining, according to Pearatings.com, and Iowa is favored in five of their last six. Wisconsin gets the Bruins next and could make a massive statement of their own with a win on the West Coast. Does anyone trust USC? Of course not. But what about Nebraska? Got to have the win at suddenly suspect Oregon to make this a conversation. Then after that it could be a Black Friday playoff eliminator game in Iowa City. Yeah, there’s a lot that must happen between now and then, but it’s fun to speculate while you still can.

And as of October 11th, we still can.

Happy birthday, Dad! At least the volleyball team won!

(QUICK NOTE: Due to my other obligations, next week there will not be a Sunday School column as I will be traveling.)

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